Weekend Estimates: ‘The Upside’ ($19M) Surprises, Tops ‘Aquaman’; ‘A Dog’s Way Home’ Eyes $11M+; ‘On the Basis of Sex’ ($6.5M) Bests ‘Replicas’ ($3M)

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Saturday Update: Significantly over-performing against pre-release tracking, The Upside scored a strong $6.95 million opening day on Friday and is now positioned to dethrone Aquaman as the #1 film in the country for the weekend. As STX’s 25th release in studio history, such a finish would make it the first time one of their films has debuted at the top of the box office. The film bested Book Club‘s $4.8 million first day take by 45 percent and The Intern‘s $6.2 million by nearly 12 percent. Boxoffice projects a weekend finish close to $19 million.

Moving into second place, Aquaman added $4.56 million on Friday, down a sharper-than-expected 51 percent from last Friday. Domestically, the DC blockbuster has earned $275.2 million and appears headed for a fourth frame around $15.8 million. Overseas, the pic took in another $5.7 million yesterday, giving it $713.4 million internationally. The global total stands at $988.6 million through Friday and will cross the $1 billion benchmark sometime on Saturday.

Sony’s A Dog’s Way Home opened to $3.3 million on Friday, about 37 percent less than A Dog’s Purpose ($5.3 million) two years ago. The family-driven adaptation could see a strong multiple over the weekend. The studio projects an $11 million frame, while our internal projections are a bit more optimistic at $12 million. Barring major weekend jumps, the film seems to have slightly over-tracked compared to Dog’s Purpose, but still has a window for staying power.

Escape Room ($2.65 million) and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ($2.2 million) finished off the top five yesterday, followed by the wide expansion of On the Basis of Sex. That film pulled $2.14 million from 1,923 locations and could bring in around $6.5 million this weekend.

Meanwhile, Replicas took in $950K on opening day Friday — comparable to Hotel Artemis ($1.1 million) and The Hurricane Heist ($947K). Its weekend tally should land close to $3 million.

Early weekend estimates are below. Updated studio estimates will follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JAN. 11 – SUN, JAN. 13

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Upside $19,000,000 3,080 $6,169 $19,000,000 1 STX Entertainment
2 Aquaman $15,800,000 -49% 3,863 -321 $4,090 $286,396,781 5 Warner Bros.
3 A Dog’s Way Home $12,000,000 3,090 $3,884 $12,000,000 1 Sony Pictures
4 Escape Room $8,300,000 -54% 2,717 0 $3,055 $31,832,931 2 Sony Pictures
5 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $7,500,000 -43% 3,029 -390 $2,476 $146,275,445 5 Sony / Columbia
6 On The Basis Of Sex $6,500,000 304% 1,923 1811 $3,380 $10,831,847 3 Focus Features
7 Mary Poppins Returns $6,000,000 -62% 3,253 -837 $1,844 $149,441,985 4 Disney
8 Bumblebee $5,900,000 -55% 3,303 -294 $1,786 $107,594,977 4 Paramount Pictures
9 The Mule $5,800,000 -36% 3,329 117 $1,742 $90,833,396 5 Warner Bros.
10 Vice $3,700,000 -35% 1,724 -810 $2,146 $36,357,843 3 Annapurna
11 Bohemian Rhapsody $3,100,000 31% 1,334 254 $2,324 $198,396,306 11 20th Century Fox
12 Replicas $3,000,000 2,329 $1,288 $3,000,000 1 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
13 If Beale Street Could Talk $2,500,000 36% 1,018 683 $2,456 $7,799,425 5 Annapurna
14 Ralph Breaks the Internet $1,600,000 -66% 1,554 -496 $1,030 $189,835,603 8 Disney
15 Holmes and Watson $575,000 -83% 1,013 -1767 $568 $30,045,153 4 Sony Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Green Book $2,200,000 22% 742 176 $2,965 $38,660,706 9 Universal Pictures
2 The Favourite $1,100,000 -42% 512 -259 $2,148 $21,473,182 8 Fox Searchlight
3 A Star is Born $1,100,000 73% 394 126 $2,792 $203,556,149 15 Warner Bros.
4 Creed II $275,000 -70% 355 -538 $775 $114,873,733 8 MGM / Warner Bros
5 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $31,000 -66% 110 -62 $282 $54,842,620 11 Walt Disney Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Destroyer $170,000 73% 27 21 $6,296 $444,518 3 Annapurna Pictures

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Friday Report: STX’s The Upside is out front early among the weekend’s new releases, taking in a healthy $1.1 million from 2,460 locations last night. That compares favorably with titles like Instant Family ($550K), Book Club ($625K), Game Night ($1.0 million), Kevin Hart: What Now? ($740K), and The Intern ($650K). The dramedy starring Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart expands to 3,080 locations today. If post-Thursday evening performance holds up in line with those titles, Upside is looking to over-perform studio expectations with a potential opening weekend in the mid-teen millions.

Sony’s A Dog’s Way Home also started off in positive fashion with $535K from 2,657 locations at 5pm last night. That’s 16 percent ahead of A Dog’s Purpose ($460K), whose first shows began at 6pm in 2,255 locations two years ago. A mid-teen millions weekend remains likely based on our current projections, north of the studio’s conservative expectations.

Meanwhile, Replicas bowed to $200K from 7pm onward at 1,630 locations last night. That’s comparable to Hotel Artemis ($271K from 1,800 locations).

At this time, Aquaman remains expected to win the weekend for a fourth straight frame — although Upside and Dog have outside shots if they over-perform our earlier forecasts starting today.

Follow Boxoffice for continued updates and the first full slate of weekend estimates on Saturday morning.

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