Weekend Estimates: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($35M+) and Zombieland: Double Tap ($25M+) Post Solid Debuts as Joker ($28M+) Continues to Deal

Saturday Report: Disney claimed the top spot on Friday — and will for the weekend — with their latest, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. The sequel to 2014’s summer hit cast $12.5 million on opening day, setting it on course for a debut between $35-40 million this weekend.

While those figures mark noticeable declines from its predecessor, Mistress is still performing generally in line with our pre-release expectations, though it may fall a bit shy of Disney’s mid-$40 million range forecast earlier this week.

Ultimately, though, global performance should be more than enough to secure this as another financial victory for the studio. The film has an encouraging 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes this morning, which despite a 40 percent critics’ mark, suggest playability in the weeks ahead.

Sony’s Zombieland: Double Tap debuted in a strong second place showing with $10.55 million yesterday, ahead of the original film’s $9.45 million first day ten years ago this month. Sony is currently projecting a $25.65 million weekend.

Some fan front-loading is observable given the 3.7x Friday total multiplier from Thursday night for Double Tap (comparable to Kingsman: The Golden Circle‘s 3.0x multiplier), but early reception is positive (92 percent audience score / 66 percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes) and there isn’t much in the way of direct competition ahead for some time.

Not to be forgotten, Joker began its third weekend with $8.61 million in third place on Friday. That gives the blockbuster DC pic $226.6 million domestically through 15 days, and it should ultimately claim second place this weekend with close to $30 million. The film stands 43 percent ahead of the pace of Venom ($158.1 million through 15 days) and 32 percent ahead of Logan ($171.2 million).

Finishing off the top five, The Addams Family added $4.1 million for an eight-day cume of $44.9 million, while Gemini Man sank 69 percent (partly attributable to losing IMAX and PLF screen surcharges, but also indicative of mixed word of mouth) from opening day to $2.3 million yesterday. The latter stands at $30.3 million after eight days.

Last but not least, Jojo Rabbit bowed in platform release at 5 locations with $138,000 yesterday — an average of $27,600 per theater. That’s a solid start for Taiki Waititi’s strongly reviewed followup to Thor: Ragnarok, comparing well with the $135,602 opening day from 4 locations by Birdman exactly five years ago this weekend.

Early weekend estimates are below. Studio updates to follow on Sunday and Monday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, OCT. 18 – SUN, OCT. 20

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $37,500,000 3,790 $9,894 $37,500,000 1 Disney
2 Joker $29,700,000 -47% 4,090 -284 $7,262 $247,724,004 3 Warner Bros.
3 Zombieland: Double Tap $25,650,000 3,468 $7,396 $25,650,000 1 Sony Pictures
4 The Addams Family $17,700,000 -42% 4,102 95 $4,315 $58,459,027 2 United Artists Releasing
5 Gemini Man $8,200,000 -60% 3,642 0 $2,252 $36,216,543 2 Paramount Pictures
6 Abominable $3,800,000 -37% 2,647 -849 $1,436 $54,215,070 4 Universal Pictures
7 Downton Abbey $2,900,000 -41% 2,258 -761 $1,284 $88,432,460 5 Focus Features
8 Judy $2,000,000 -38% 1,418 -209 $1,410 $18,962,138 4 Roadside Attractions / LD Entertainment
9 Hustlers $2,000,000 -49% 1,575 -782 $1,270 $2,000,000 6 STX Entertainment
10 It Chapter Two $1,500,000 -52% 1,528 -775 $982 $209,654,518 7 Warner Bros
11 Jexi $1,100,000 -65% 2,332 0 $472 $5,619,684 2 Lionsgate / CBS / Entertainment One

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Ad Astra $800,000 -57% 796 -882 $1,005 $48,664,771 5 20th Century Fox
2 Rambo: Last Blood $545,000 -64% 930 -901 $586 $44,067,166 5 Lionsgate
3 The Lion King $405,000 -41% 325 -1362 $1,246 $543,088,628 14 Walt Disney Pictures
4 Scary Stories to Tell In The Dark $165,000 -33% 219 -127 $753 $68,167,304 11 CBS Films / Lionsgate
5 Dora and the Lost City of Gold $110,000 -22% 147 -77 $748 $60,467,018 11 Paramount Pictures
6 Toy Story 4 $105,000 -34% 145 -44 $724 $433,730,484 18 Disney
7 Angel Has Fallen $90,000 -38% 168 -120 $536 $68,878,413 9 Lionsgate
8 Lucy In The Sky $65,000 -17% 231 33 $281 $279,095 3 Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Parasite $1,300,000 238% 33 30 $39,394 $1,880,642 2 NEON
2 Jojo Rabbit $430,000 5 $86,000 $430,000 1 Fox Searchlight
3 The Art of Racing in the Rain $45,000 1% 66 -23 $682 $26,392,699 11 20th Century Fox
4 Aladdin $35,000 21% 45 -28 $778 $355,564,840 22 Disney
5 Immortal Hero $20,000 12 $1,667 $20,000 1 Freestyle Releasing
6 47 Meters Down: Uncaged $20,000 -59% 51 -48 $392 $22,232,261 10 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
7 Ready or Not $15,000 -45% 39 -13 $385 $28,703,847 9 Fox Searchlight
8 Serendipity $1,000 2 $500 $1,000 1 Cohen Media Group

Friday Report: Sony chimes in this morning with official earnings of $2.85 million for Zombieland 2: Double Tap from shows beginning at 7pm in 3,052 theaters domestically last night, winning the evening in terms of the head-to-head debut of this week’s two high profile sequels.

Additional Coverage: Weekend Forecast: Will Maleficent: Mistress of Evil or Zombieland 2: Double Tap Dethrone Joker?

On the comparison end of pre-Friday starts, Double Tap took in 36 percent more than Good Boys ($2.1 million) back in August — the most recent high profile, R-rated comedy to hit theaters. Last night’s take also more than doubled Super Troopers 2‘s pre-Friday earnings ($1.35 million), while coming in just 16 percent behind Kingsman: The Golden Circle ($3.4 million).

Meanwhile, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil banked a solid $2.3 million from shows beginning at 6pm yesterday. That’s about 12 percent behind Dumbo ($2.6 million) and 10 percent ahead of The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part ($2.1 million) earlier this year.

Overall, Mistress of Evil remains expected to win the weekend considering its family play and PLF footprint, which should translate well throughout weekend matinees. Joker will likely scoot down to second place in its third frame, barring another over-performance and/or something unexpected from the Maleficent sequel.

More updates to follow.

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