Weekend Forecast: ’12 Strong’ & ‘Den of Thieves’ Aim For Older Male Audiences Against Sunday NFL Playoffs

12 Strong and Den of Thieves as the post-MLK frame looks to be a much quieter one than last year when Split broke out beyond all expectations to a $40 million launch.

The former of the two newcomers will hope to leverage its true story into success among military families, although its currently tracking behind the levels of 2016’s 13 Hours (which had a holiday weekend and Michael Bay fan base to further boost its debut). Den of Thieves is performing well ahead of where Triple 9 stood across various social media metrics, with studio expectations currently in the mid-to-high single digit millions. Ultimately, though, the crossover for both openers’ target audience — in combination with the The Commuter slightly out-performing expectations, plus this weekend’s NFL playoff games — has us leaning toward the conservative end for both new releases.

Also of note, Forever My Girl is expected to open in semi-wide release with a possible 600+ locations. Social media traction has been fairly healthy leading up to release, but with no confirmed location count from distributor Roadside Attractions, we’re holding off on official forecasts.

The Weekend Forecast:

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 21 % Change from Last Wknd
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia $18,000,000 $312,700,000 -36%
The Post Fox $12,500,000 $45,200,000 -37%
12 Strong Warner Bros. $12,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW
The Greatest Showman Fox $9,200,000 $112,800,000 -26%
Paddington 2 Warner Bros. $7,600,000 $23,900,000 -31%
The Commuter Lionsgate $6,500,000 $25,000,000 -52%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi Disney / Lucasfilm $6,000,000 $603,600,000 -49%
Den of Thieves STX $5,900,000 $5,900,000 NEW
Insidious: The Last Key Universal $5,500,000 $58,200,000 -56%
Proud Mary Sony / Screen Gems $4,400,000 $18,200,000 -56%

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