12 Strong and Den of Thieves as the post-MLK frame looks to be a much quieter one than last year when Split broke out beyond all expectations to a $40 million launch.
The former of the two newcomers will hope to leverage its true story into success among military families, although its currently tracking behind the levels of 2016’s 13 Hours (which had a holiday weekend and Michael Bay fan base to further boost its debut). Den of Thieves is performing well ahead of where Triple 9 stood across various social media metrics, with studio expectations currently in the mid-to-high single digit millions. Ultimately, though, the crossover for both openers’ target audience — in combination with the The Commuter slightly out-performing expectations, plus this weekend’s NFL playoff games — has us leaning toward the conservative end for both new releases.
Also of note, Forever My Girl is expected to open in semi-wide release with a possible 600+ locations. Social media traction has been fairly healthy leading up to release, but with no confirmed location count from distributor Roadside Attractions, we’re holding off on official forecasts.
The Weekend Forecast:
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 21 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | Sony / Columbia | $18,000,000 | $312,700,000 | -36% |
| The Post | Fox | $12,500,000 | $45,200,000 | -37% |
| 12 Strong | Warner Bros. | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | NEW |
| The Greatest Showman | Fox | $9,200,000 | $112,800,000 | -26% |
| Paddington 2 | Warner Bros. | $7,600,000 | $23,900,000 | -31% |
| The Commuter | Lionsgate | $6,500,000 | $25,000,000 | -52% |
| Star Wars: The Last Jedi | Disney / Lucasfilm | $6,000,000 | $603,600,000 | -49% |
| Den of Thieves | STX | $5,900,000 | $5,900,000 | NEW |
| Insidious: The Last Key | Universal | $5,500,000 | $58,200,000 | -56% |
| Proud Mary | Sony / Screen Gems | $4,400,000 | $18,200,000 | -56% |
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