Weekend Forecast: Black and Blue, Countdown, and The Current War

The final weekend of October is an historically slow one, and this year’s will be no exception.

This month hasn’t quite lived up to the record pace of October 2018’s strong performance (led by Venom, A Star Is Born, and Halloween), but it’s nonetheless proven to be another healthy corridor with high profile releases like Joker, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Zombieland 2: Double Tap, and The Addams Family combining for a respectable aggregate market. This month is off 7 percent from October-to-date last year, but with $594.5 million still represents the second best October of all-time when not adjusting for inflation.

In fact, those four aforementioned films may again represent the top four at this weekend’s box office, though not necessarily in that order. In general, most films should enjoy strong holds — particularly family-driven titles.

As new releases go, Sony / Screen Gems will release Black and Blue in an estimated 2,000 locations in an effort to counter-program the existing holdovers. Reviews are mixed at 59 percent on Rotten Tomatoes currently, while the strong platform and limited releases of prestige titles like Parasite and Jojo Rabbit could limit the chances at reaching $10 million+ like past Screen Gems titles have, but it’s certainly possible.

Meanwhile, Countdown arrives from STX in an effort to reach young adult audiences with a straight-up horror title close to Halloween. The premise is aimed at fans of Happy Death Day, Truth or Dare, and other genre fare, and could be a sleeper contender to draw healthy walk-up business this weekend. No reviews are available yet though, and a muted marketing campaign hinders confidence — as does the crossover factor with Zombieland: Double Tap‘s second weekend audience.

Last but not least, 101 Studios will distribute The Current War in an unconfirmed (as of Wednesday) number of locations. Due to the film’s numerous delays and the uncertainty of how wide it will release, forecasts are volatile before its opening day (and it, too, faces a larger struggle contending with other prestige films in the market). That said, the star quartet of Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Shannon, Nicholas Hoult, and Tom Holland could help it stand out among some adult moviegoers.

Opening Weekend Ranges

  • Black and Blue ($6 – 11 million)
  • Countdown ($6.5 – 11.5 million)
  • The Current War: Director’s Cut ($3 – 6 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will remain approximately flat with the same frame last year, give or take a few percentage points in the margin of error. The same weekend one year ago generated $91 million across the top ten as Hunter Killer was the only new release to rank in that group.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 27 % Change from Last Wknd
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Disney $18,900,000 $64,800,000 -49%
Joker Warner Bros. $18,800,000 $278,400,000 -36%
Zombieland 2: Double Tap Sony / Columbia $12,800,000 $47,700,000 -52%
The Addams Family (2019) United Artists Releasing $11,900,000 $73,200,000 -27%
Countdown STX $8,000,000 $8,000,000 NEW
Black and Blue Sony / Screen Gems $7,200,000 $7,200,000 NEW
Gemini Man Paramount $5,000,000 $44,300,000 -40%
The Current War: Director’s Cut 101 Studios $3,900,000 $3,900,000 NEW
Abominable Universal $2,500,000 $57,400,000 -29%
Downton Abbey Focus Features $1,900,000 $92,100,000 -39%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday

The chart above excludes releases and potential expansions from limited and platform films

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