This weekend three new wide releases will debut, two of which have a real shot at dethroning the two-time reigning box office champion Captain America: Civil War. Last time out in Captain America: The Winter Soldier the superhero film saw a 38% decline in its third weekend of release, while Avengers: Age Of Ultron had a 50% drop. Splitting both numbers would see it come in right around the $41 million mark and create an intriguing race between it, Sony’s The Angry Birds Movie video game adaptation and Universal’s Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising.
Though sporting the best early buzz and reviews Warner Bros. entry The Nice Guys is expected to bring up the rear in fourth position on the weekend but use that positive word of mouth to have a strong run into June.
The Angry Birds Movie
- Angry Birds the game is a massive worldwide success, permeating just about every gaming platform and channel.
- Equally impressive is its usage by a very wide demographic.
- It was reported that the film had $400 million in marketing spend and product tie-ins from major companies around the world.
- Social media reception has been strong on the whole, especially on Facebook where it has secured more likes than any other animated film pre-release in all of 2016 so far.
- Though sitting at only 56% fresh at RottenTomatoes that is the best rating for any video game adaptation ever.
- Video game adaptations have been famously hit or miss with a long string of failures, especially in the family space (see this year’s Ratchet & Clank).
- The family demographic has been tapped numerous times in 2016 so far with titles such as Jungle Book and Zootopia still in the top 10, not to mention Captain America: Civil War which crosses over to virtually all demographics.
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
- Sequel to the wildly popular 2014 Summer smash which raked in $270 million worldwide.
- R-Rated comedies have a long history of strong May returns including the aforementioned first instalment here, The Hangover sequels and Bridesmaids.
- Social media buzz has been lacking for the film which is troubling, especially since the inclusion of Chloe Grace Moritz should help its appeal to younger women who are generally very active on social media. The film got virtually the same amount of likes by release day of the first film than it has from that release day to present which doesn’t spell good things.
- Unless word of mouth and ratings were great for the first film comedy sequels often fall sort of their predecessor.
- Both Seth Rogen and Zac Efron saw disappointing returns in subsequent films to Neighbors (Night Before – $43 million domestic total and Dirty Grandpa – $36 million domestic total respectively).
The Nice Guys
- Early word of mouth and reviews have been spectacular (96% fresh on RottenTomatoes currently).
- Its a great counter-programming option for what currently is in release which should connect very well with older moviegoers.
- Though waning, Crowe is still one of the more recognizable male leads in the business and with Ryan Gosling along for the ride for good measure to appeal to female audiences the starpower is a definite draw.
- Social media numbers, especially on Facebook, have been less than stellar which potentially indicates that at the very least its not appealing to many outside of older adults which could severely cap its opening numbers.
- Often films that are very well received by critics miss the mark with audiences, especially in this mature target demographic, if their humor doesn’t translate well to a wider audience-base.
Top 10 Forecast
Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will generate around $156.4 million. That would mark a 8 percent increase from the same frame last year when Tomorrowland barely scraped by the second weekend of Pitch Perfect 2, leading to a top ten of $144.6 million.
Check out our complete weekend forecast below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total Through
Sunday, May 15
|Captain America: Civil War||Disney||$41,000,000||$353,500,000|
|The Angry Birds Movie||Sony / Columbia||$39,000,000||$39,000,000|
|Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising||Universal||$36,500,000||$36,500,000|
|The Nice Guys||Warner Bros.||$17,000,000||$17,000,000|
|The Jungle Book (2016)||Disney||$10,260,000||$327,000,000|
|Money Monster||Sony / TriStar||$6,900,000||$26,000,000|
|The Darkness||High Top Releasing||$1,500,000||$7,650,000|
|The Huntsman: Winter’s War||Universal||$1,300,000||$47,100,000|
|Mother’s Day (2016)||Open Road||$1,150,000||$31,000,000|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.