The 2016 summer box office season officially kicks off this weekend with the 13th chapter of Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. Our analysis:
Captain America: Civil War
Disney / Marvel
PROS:
- The sheer amount of success and strong reception enjoyed by most Marvel films is an automatic selling point here.
- Based in part on the very popular Civil War comic story line, fans have been eagerly awaiting the Tony Stark vs. Steve Rogers showdown for years.
- Social media activity is through the roof, currently trending on par with or ahead of all other MCU titles — Age of Ultron included — at the same point before release on both Twitter and Facebook.
- Stellar reviews and early word of mouth have perfectly complemented another strong marketing campaign from the studio.
- In terms of being viewed as a “sequel” to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, that film’s excellent reception should only serve as goodwill for this entry.
- The addition of Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark/Iron Man to this film’s cast — along with the ensemble of characters itself — should help the film feel and perform more like an Avengers sequel than a standalone character entry.
- The aid of Mother’s Day falling on this Sunday should be an additional boost to ticket sales.
- Fandango reported earlier this week that the film surpassed Batman v Superman, Age of Ultron, and The Dark Knight Rises as the company’s top pre-selling superhero movie ever.
- Disney-at-large is currently riding an unprecedented wave of commercial and creative success, and this looks to fall in line with that trend.
CONS:
- There are practically no downsides with Civil War — or Disney or Marvel right now, for that matter. This is easily the safest box office bet to hit the market since Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Top 10 Forecast
Boxoffice is projecting this weekend’s top ten films will accumulate around $264.2 million. That would represent a 121 percent increase from the same weekend last year ($119.7 million), which was led by the sophomore weekend of Age of Ultron.
Check out our complete weekend forecast below.
| Title | Distributor | Weekend | Domestic Total Through Sunday, May 8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Captain America: Civil War | Disney | $214,000,000 | $214,000,000 |
| The Jungle Book (2016) | Disney | $22,000,000 | $285,200,000 |
| Mother’s Day (2016) | Open Road | $6,500,000 | $18,000,000 |
| The Huntsman: Winter’s War | Universal | $4,500,000 | $41,300,000 |
| Keanu | Warner Bros. / New Line | $4,200,000 | $16,300,000 |
| Zootopia | Disney | $3,400,000 | $328,300,000 |
| Barbershop: The Next Cut | Warner Bros. / New Line | $2,900,000 | $49,000,000 |
| The Boss | Universal | $2,800,000 | $60,200,000 |
| Ratchet & Clank | Focus / Gramercy | $2,300,000 | $7,900,000 |
| Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | Warner Bros. | $1,600,000 | $327,800,000 |
Shawn Robbins, Daniel Garris, and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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