Weekend Forecast: ‘Captain America: Civil War’

The 2016 summer box office season officially kicks off this weekend with the 13th chapter of Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. Our analysis:

Captain America: Civil War
Disney / Marvel

PROS:

  • The sheer amount of success and strong reception enjoyed by most Marvel films is an automatic selling point here.
  • Based in part on the very popular Civil War comic story line, fans have been eagerly awaiting the Tony Stark vs. Steve Rogers showdown for years.
  • Social media activity is through the roof, currently trending on par with or ahead of all other MCU titles — Age of Ultron included — at the same point before release on both Twitter and Facebook.
  • Stellar reviews and early word of mouth have perfectly complemented another strong marketing campaign from the studio.
  • In terms of being viewed as a “sequel” to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, that film’s excellent reception should only serve as goodwill for this entry.
  • The addition of Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark/Iron Man to this film’s cast — along with the ensemble of characters itself — should help the film feel and perform more like an Avengers sequel than a standalone character entry.
  • The aid of Mother’s Day falling on this Sunday should be an additional boost to ticket sales.
  • Fandango reported earlier this week that the film surpassed Batman v SupermanAge of Ultron, and The Dark Knight Rises as the company’s top pre-selling superhero movie ever.
  • Disney-at-large is currently riding an unprecedented wave of commercial and creative success, and this looks to fall in line with that trend.

CONS:

  • There are practically no downsides with Civil War — or Disney or Marvel right now, for that matter. This is easily the safest box office bet to hit the market since Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Top 10 Forecast

Boxoffice is projecting this weekend’s top ten films will accumulate around $264.2 million. That would represent a 121 percent increase from the same weekend last year ($119.7 million), which was led by the sophomore weekend of Age of Ultron.

Check out our complete weekend forecast below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total Through
Sunday, May 8
Captain America: Civil War Disney $214,000,000 $214,000,000
The Jungle Book (2016) Disney $22,000,000 $285,200,000
Mother’s Day (2016) Open Road $6,500,000 $18,000,000
The Huntsman: Winter’s War Universal $4,500,000 $41,300,000
Keanu Warner Bros. / New Line $4,200,000 $16,300,000
Zootopia Disney $3,400,000 $328,300,000
Barbershop: The Next Cut Warner Bros. / New Line $2,900,000 $49,000,000
The Boss Universal $2,800,000 $60,200,000
Ratchet & Clank Focus / Gramercy $2,300,000 $7,900,000
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Warner Bros. $1,600,000 $327,800,000

Shawn Robbins, Daniel Garris, and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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