This weekend brings a handful of newcomers to the market as June continues to roll on. Our analysis and forecast:
Disney / Pixar
- The Cars franchise remains a fairly popular attraction, particularly among its target young male audience.
- Although Captain Underpants opened to healthy numbers two weeks ago, this is effectively the first “marquee” animated release of summer — mainly thanks to Pixar’s branding, which remains a strong attraction for families.
- Social media activity is relatively healthy, particularly on Facebook with the franchise’s 16.6 million+ fans.
- The 2011 sequel Cars 2 is one of Pixar’s very few films to generate less than strong word of mouth. That, plus the six-year gap, will likely result in some franchise fatigue for this one.
- Reviews, while mostly positive, stand at a modest 66 percent on Rotten Tomatoes thus far. That’s below typical Pixar benchmarks, which could have some families opting to wait for Despicable Me 3 at the end of the month.
All Eyez On Me
Lionsgate / Summit
- Tupac Shakur remains an iconic figure in the world of hip hop two decades after his death. Fans are definitely interested in this biopic.
- Twitter activity is very positive, coming in ahead of the trends of films like Get On Up.
- With no reviews available at this time, it’s difficult to gauge the potential reception by audiences. In turn, this may or may not end up much more front-loaded than the likes of Straight Outta Compton.
- Facebook growth is healthy overall, but trailing the numbers of Get On Up.
Sony / Columbia
- The ensemble cast led by Scarlett Johansson and Kate McKinnon’s star power should be of significant help in appealing to female audiences, particularly for “girls night out” events.
- The lack of breakout R-rated comedies so far this summer leaves open space in the market for this one.
- Social media is noticeably healthier than Snatched up to this point.
- Reviews are heading south, unfortunately, as it stands at 48 percent as of this writing.
- Competition for female audiences may be somewhat challenging still as Wonder Woman continues to attract crowds thanks to its stellar word of mouth.
47 Meters Down
- The PG-13 rating could help attract teen audiences in the mood for a thriller.
- Social media buzz has grown in recent days, indicating some potential upside.
- Coming from a new distributor, market reach is a major concern as awareness for the title isn’t particularly high compared to a film like The Shallows.
Check out our top ten weekend forecast in the table below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, June 18||% Change|
|Wonder Woman||Warner Bros.||$35,110,000||$265,240,000||-40.00%|
|All Eyez On Me||Lionsgate / Summit||$20,000,000||$20,000,000||NEW|
|Rough Night||Sony / Columbia||$16,000,000||$16,000,000||NEW|
|The Mummy (2017)||Universal||$15,210,000||$56,710,000||-52.00%|
|Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie||Fox||$6,700,000||$56,320,000||-45.00%|
|Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales||Disney||$5,350,000||$146,040,000||-50.00%|
|47 Meters Down||Entertainment Studios||$4,500,000||$4,500,000||NEW|
|Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2||Disney||$3,910,000||$373,240,000||-38.00%|
|It Comes At Night||A24||$3,110,000||$11,400,000||-48.00%|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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