Weekend Forecast: ‘Deadpool 2’ to Dethrone ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ as ‘Book Club’ & ‘Show Dogs’ Counter-Program

The coming weekend is poised to be one of the biggest penultimate Memorial Day frames on record (details below) as Fox’s highly anticipated sequel sets its sights on taking the crown from Disney’s three-time champ. Meanwhile, two openers hope to counter-program with wildly different target audiences.

Deadpool 2
Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 150 million

Not much has changed in expectations since last week’s update on the Merc’s second outing. The most notable difference is that Deadpool 2‘s Twitter activity — while very strong in overall terms —  has hovered around the first film’s daily performance, while remaining far ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and well behind Suicide Squad. As a sequel, we typically expect to see numbers far higher in comparison to origin stories, but the first Deadpool was a considerable outlier in terms of its social media prowess.

As noted before, the first film had a double advantage of Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day boosting opening weekend attendance when it bowed to $132.4 million in February 2016, so it wouldn’t be shocking if the sequel falls slightly below that mark even with positive reviews. Still, the frontloaded nature that usually applies with sequels to well-received films means Deadpool 2 still has a fair shot to meet or exceed its counterpart’s standing opening weekend record for an R-rated film.

Avengers: Infinity War
Fourth Weekend Range: $25 – 32 million

While it will no doubt vacate the top spot after a 21-day run in that position, Marvel’s behemoth will continue marching toward the $600 million domestic threshold. It may also benefit from sales to moviegoers too young to purchase a ticket to this weekend’s headline opener.

In addition to Deadpool 2‘s target adult male audience competing directly with this film’s, the loss of IMAX and PLF screens is expected to contribute to what could be the film’s sharpest weekend drop so far.

Book Club
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 15 million

Social media trends remain steady for the comedy with overall metrics comparing similarly to those of Going In Style and Last Vegas. Traditional tracking opens up possibilities, though, with interest metrics not far off I Feel Pretty. A healthy dose of marketing and smart counter-programming to an underserved older audience could help this perform well above expectations during the coming frame.

Show Dogs
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 10 million

Despite an absolute minimal presence on social media, this is another counter-programmer to be aware of as parents with young kids have had very few options at the theater in recent months. The strongest comparisons for the film look to be Sherlock Gnomes and last year’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, which similarly debuted the weekend before the Memorial Day frame.

Top 10 Comparison

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will amass $208 million or more. That would represent an 80+ percent increase from the same weekend last year, which accounted for $115.3 million as Alien: CovenantEverything, Everything, and Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul debuted during Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s third weekend.

Of note, the current record for a weekend immediately preceding Memorial Day Weekend was set three years ago when Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road debuted during Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s third weekend as part of an overall $175.5 million frame. That topped a record set eight years earlier, when Shrek the Third dethroned Spider-Man 3 in the latter’s third weekend as they drove an overall $171.4 million weekend in 2007.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 20 % Change from Last Wknd
Deadpool 2 Fox $133,000,000 $133,000,000 NEW
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $27,500,000 $593,900,000 -56%
Book Club Paramount $11,200,000 $11,200,000 NEW
Show Dogs Global Road $8,200,000 $8,200,000 NEW
Life of the Party Warner Bros. / New Line $7,300,000 $30,300,000 -59%
Breaking In Universal $6,800,000 $29,500,000 -61%
Overboard Pantelion $5,700,000 $38,000,000 -42%
A Quiet Place Paramount $4,600,000 $176,800,000 -29%
I Feel Pretty STX $1,900,000 $47,300,000 -50%
Rampage Warner Bros. / New Line $1,500,000 $92,400,000 -57%

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