The final day of March heralds the end of 2017’s stellar first quarter, and with it come two new challengers in the box office arena: Ghost In the Shell and The Boss Baby. Will either be able to challenge the third frame of Disney’s Beauty and the Beast?
Scarlett Johansson leads the live action take on the classic 1995 anime film, and she should be able to lure in fans of that property in tandem with some of her own fan base cultivated through her Black Widow role in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Social media buzz has been generally very positive up to this point, although the studio’s late embargo on critical reviews has lowered our expectations in recent weeks. At this stage, and considering the competitive market it enters after an atypically busy March for the target male audience, Ghost In the Shell appears likely to fall short of Johansson’s Lucy, which debuted to $43.9 million back in July 2014. Paramount is projecting an opening weekend in the mid-$20 million range, while we’re slightly more optimistic for now and still wouldn’t rule out a debut closer to $30 million.
Fox and DreamWorks represent the other new contender this weekend with The Boss Baby, a film that could appeal strongly to families with children too young and/or not interested in the latest Disney family phenom currently ruling the box office. Social media trends have been very favorable — particularly on Facebook — compared to past DWA releases like Mr. Peabody and Sherman and Home. The studio is hoping to reach $30 million this weekend, which is closer to the $32.2 million launch of the former among the two aforementioned titles. Based on Baby‘s tracking metrics — and combined with lackluster critical reviews so far — we tend to agree.
Ultimately, though, Beauty and the Beast looks poised to claim the crown for a third straight weekend after posting the fourth best sophomore frame of all-time last week. This weekend’s new releases could hit it more directly than last week’s (especially as it loses some IMAX and premium screens to Ghost), but an additional $45-50 million seems likely. If it can come out on the top end of that range, it would best Rogue One‘s $49.6 million as the fifth best third weekend in history and best ever for a non-summer/non-holiday release (currently The Jungle Book‘s $43.7 million last year). Impressively, 2002’s Spider-Man still rests in sixth place all-time with $45 million.
Check out our complete weekend forecast in the table below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, April 2||% Change|
|Beauty and the Beast (2017)||Buena Vista||$47,500,000||$393,340,000||-47.47%|
|The Boss Baby||Fox||$32,000,000||$32,000,000||NEW|
|Ghost in the Shell (2017)||Paramount||$28,000,000||$28,000,000||NEW|
|Power Rangers (2017)||Lionsgate||$18,900,000||$70,390,000||-53.10%|
|Kong: Skull Island||Warner Bros.||$8,070,000||$146,930,000||-44.99%|
|Life (2017)||Sony / Columbia||$6,250,000||$22,920,000||-50.01%|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this forecast.