September rolls on this weekend with four new wide releases aiming for a variety of audiences.
Leading the pack is expected to be Fox and writer/director Shane Black’s The Predator. Traditional industry tracking points to what could be a breakout debut in the $30 million+ range; however, social media models and the film’s mixed critical response suggest this may end up even more front-loaded by nostalgic fans than the likes of Blade Runner 2049 and Alien: Covenant. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a debut anywhere between $25 million and $35 million this weekend.
Conversely, A Simple Favor is popping late in the marketing phase and forecasting models indicate increasingly positive signs. The film’s strong early reviews are likely helping pre-release interest perk up beyond the target fan base of the source novel. Additionally, stars Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively — behind director Paul Feig — command notable appeal with their recent track records. Social media and tracking awareness levels haven’t reached the levels of Red Sparrow or The Girl on the Train yet, but there could be significant upside for the film over the next few days.
Rounding out the opener front, White Boy Rick is trending a bit more modestly than once expected as it looks to debut in the high single digit millions, with an outside chance at $10 million. Debuting in semi-wide release, Unbroken: Path to Redemption is tracking similar to other faith-based titles like last week’s God Bless the Broken Road and God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness. The semi-sequel to the original 2014 crowd-pleaser looks to open in the $2 million to $5 million range.
Meanwhile, The Nun is likely to claim second place behind The Predator this weekend after an excellent $53.8 million opening frame last week.
Top 10 v. Last Year
Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $100 million. That would represent a marginal 2 percent decline from the same weekend last year when It continued to dominate the field in first place ahead of releases American Assassin and mother! as part of an overall $101.6 million top ten market.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 16||% Change from Last Wknd|
|The Nun||Warner Bros. / New Line||$22,000,000||$90,200,000||-59%|
|A Simple Favor||Lionsgate||$15,000,000||$15,000,000||NEW|
|Crazy Rich Asians||Warner Bros.||$9,000,000||$150,000,000||-32%|
|White Boy Rick||Sony / Studio 8||$7,900,000||$7,900,000||NEW|
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