Weekend Forecast (Updated): The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity

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January 25 Update: Neither of this weekend’s new releases held Thursday night screenings, but we’re offering a brief update to our original forecast with confirmed theater counts for Oscar candidates now available.

Among these expansions, we expect only Green Book will see enough of an increase to crack the weekend top ten (again) with a forecast of $5 million+. This means our top ten forecast increases to approximately $76.4 million, up from $71 million previously. This projection and the forecast chart below have been updated to reflect these changes.

  • BlacKkKlansman remains in 171 locations
  • Black Panther remains out of theatrical release
  • Bohemian Rhapsody expands to 1,423 locations
  • The Favourite expands to 1,540 locations
  • Green Book expands to 2,426 locations
  • Roma remains out of theatrical release
  • A Star Is Born expands to 1,192 locations
  • Vice expands to 1,557 locations

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January 23 Report: Following MLK weekend, the box office is settling in for a quiet two weekends as the heart of winter strikes and the reality of a slim release schedule takes hold before Super Bowl weekend. Despite coming off a slightly inflated holiday weekend, the coming frame could easily see a number of holdovers remain sturdy due to the lack of new, high profile market entrants.

This weekend will see the release of Fox’s The Kid Who Would Be King, which hopes to debut in the top three with appeal to tweens and family audiences. Tracking and Trailer Impact metrics position the Joe Cornish-helmed fantasy/adventure film for an opening weekend north of $7 million, witha shot at reaching $10 million or slightly more given the relative lack of recent competition for the target younger audience. The film’s positive reviews could additionally encourage parental interest.

Aviron’s Serenity is also on deck with stars Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway driving the bulk of interest from prospective adult moviegoers. As some Oscar nominees are expected to benefit from this week’s nominations, though, a modest opening frame in the mid-single-digit millions looks to be in store.

Meanwhile, Glass will be aiming to repeat at the top of the box office after its $40.3 million opening last weekend, and The Upside should continue to display legs as word of mouth remains a strength for the Kevin Hart-Bryan Cranston dramedy.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn an estimated $76.4 million, down a projected 25 percent from the comparable weekend last year when Maze Runner: The Death Cure and Hostiles opened wide as part of a $102.5 million top ten weekend.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 27 % Change from Last Wknd
Glass Universal $17,400,000 $71,800,000 -57%
The Upside STX $10,800,000 $61,900,000 -28%
The Kid Who Would Be King Fox $10,000,000 $10,000,000 NEW
Aquaman Warner Bros. $6,100,000 $315,200,000 -40%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $6,000,000 $168,900,000 -21%
Serenity Aviron $5,500,000 $5,500,000 NEW
Green Book Universal $5,000,000 $48,600,000 132%
A Dog’s Way Home Sony / Columbia $4,900,000 $30,700,000 -32%
Dragon Ball Super: Broly FUNinmation Films $4,000,000 $27,400,000 -59%
Mary Poppins Returns Disney $3,400,000 $165,200,000 -35%
Escape Room Sony / Columbia $3,300,000 $46,900,000 -41%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.


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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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