Weekend Forecast: Will ‘Transformers: The Last Knight’ Dethrone ‘Cars 3’ & ‘Wonder Woman’?

This weekend sees one lone opener as we enter the final third of June and approach the end of 2017’s second quarter. Our final analysis for the fifth Transformers film:

Transformers: The Last Knight
Paramount

PROS:

  • Having earned over $1.3 billion domestically from four films, the franchise remains a healthy draw for male audiences — particularly among younger crowds and older fans.
  • The lack of breakout male-targeted hits this June leaves some market space open for this.
  • With over 33 million Facebook fans, the franchise remains one of the hottest social media drivers among modern cinematic series.
  • The return of Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Josh Duhamel’s characters could entice loyal fans to return for the fifth helping.
  • Overseas interest in the franchise continues to bolster the studio’s overall outlook for the series.

CONS:

  • Not surprisingly, critical reviews are in the cellar with a 16 percent score as of this writing.
  • The franchise has declined in domestic revenues with its last two films, and we fully expect that to continue here as fatigue becomes a bigger factor.
  • Although Michael Bay has a significant fan base, there’s a distinct desire among fans to see someone else’s vision of this franchise get a chance after five films.
  • Competition from Cars 3 could further limit appeal to young male audiences this weekend.

Our top ten forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, June 25 % Change
Transformers: The Last Knight Paramount $46,000,000 $73,000,000 NEW
Cars 3 Disney $29,000,000 $103,500,000 -46.00%
Wonder Woman Warner Bros. $28,900,000 $322,250,000 -30.00%
All Eyez on Me Lionsgate/Summit $9,250,000 $43,650,000 -65.00%
The Mummy (2017) Universal $7,260,000 $70,410,000 -50.00%
47 Meters Down Entertainment Studios $5,830,000 $22,610,000 -48.00%
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Disney $5,830,000 $160,510,000 -35.00%
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox $4,310,000 $65,600,000 -40.00%
Rough Night Sony / Columbia $4,100,000 $15,260,000 -49.00%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Disney $3,550,000 $380,810,000 -30.00%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1553617519041-1'); });

News Stories