The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | February 28 – March 2, 2025
Week 9 | February 28 – March 2, 2025
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Marvel Studios | Week 3
Weekend Range: $10M – $14M
Showtime Market Share: 19%
Pros
- With a -68% second frame fall to $28.17M, there’s not a lot of sugarcoating you can sprinkle on Captain America: Brave New World. The reviews and audience scores are harsh, and the box office is not as forthcoming as a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie that’s firing on all cylinders. While Disney probably isn’t happy with the increasingly erratic MCU performances, we can tell you who is happy about the movie: theater owners. The last two weeks have seen Cap single-handedly elevate the overall theatrical totals to, respectively, 50% and 20% above the same 2024 frames. That’s great news, especially after how dire things were in the first half of 2024. Releasing a Captain America movie during the February doldrums has given movie houses across the country some much-needed cashflow, even if it’s not the foot traffic a big $180M superhero movie needs. Just keep in mind, folks were saying the same thing about Pixar a year or two ago… and then you get Inside Out 2.
Cons
It seems Sam Wilson has flown too close to the sun, as the beeswax in Marvel’s wings begins to melt. Even though it could conceivably hit break-even globally (somewhere past $400M), there’s no question Captain America: Brave New World will now be added to the list of MCU “unfortunates,” so with Frame 3 poised to bring in numbers in the low ten millions (another 50%-60% drop) we should look at how it might compare to other low performers from the franchise…
- The Marvels (2023) – $6.3M (-38% 3rd frame drop)
- The Incredible Hulk (2008) – $9.57M (-57% 3rd frame drop)
- Eternals (2021) – $11M (-59% 3rd frame drop)
- Black Widow (2021) – $11.6M (-55% 3rd frame drop)
- Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) – $12.8M (60% 3rd frame drop)
- Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) – $13M (-49% 3rd frame drop)
With a current $142.9M domestic and $290.3M globally, Brave New World will have to put on a brave face as it hopefully stumbles to $400M+ WW. The optimistic goal post right now is the film somehow kicking the football past Eternals‘ $401.7M, which at the time was considered ghastly for an MCU movie. Even if it only barely scrapes by, the movie will still have a long downstream life on streaming and through toys/ancillary products.
2. Last Breath
Focus Features | NEW
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Showtime Market Share: 10%
Pros
- The true story of diver Chris Lemons (Finn Cole), who was trapped 330 ft underwater with limited breathing gas in his tank, was previously covered in an acclaimed 2019 documentary also titled Last Breath. The new Focus Features release is helmed by that documentary’s co-director Alex Parkinson, and features some strong B-list names like Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Simu Liu (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings) in the lead.
Cons
- There are no major reviews yet (not a great sign), but the real life survival genre has not been in vogue since the 2010’s when films like 127 Hours, Lone Survivor, and Captain Phillips reigned. Even a well-reviewed entry like 2022’s Ron Howard-made Thirteen Lives wound up only getting a token week-long theatrical release before going quickly to Amazon. With a 3,011 theater opening Last Breath could capture an audience through the sheer novelty of there not having been one of these things in awhile, but our panel has it opening well under $15M.
3. The Monkey
Neon | Week 2
Weekend Range: $5M – $8M
Showtime Market Share: 11%
Pros
- Neon managed to scare up their second-biggest opening ever with The Monkey, a splatterific horror comedy based on a vintage short story by Stephen King. At $14M it’s also the biggest horror opening of 2025, and if it lands somewhere near our prediction panel’s high-end estimate of $8M it will be in good shape, especially with no real horror competition in a similar vein until A24’s Death of a Unicorn a month from now.
Cons
- Due to positive buzz and high demand for advanced tickets, many predicted much better for The Monkey, especially after screenwriter/director Osgood Perkins’ broke the bank with last year’s Longlegs ($22.4M). There’s something in the air this year where well-reviewed genre entries like this one (79% on RT) are not getting the traction you would think. It’s possible we just haven’t had the right zeitgeist-skimming vehicle yet, although Perkins’ movie is the leader of the pack so far.
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