The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | June 5 – 7, 2026
Week 23 | June 5 – 7, 2026
1. Scary Movie
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $45M – $55M
Showtime Market Share: 17%
Pros
- We have a very competitive weekend ahead of us, with the Top 10 expected to combine for $180M+, the second-best three-day frame of the year to date (behind the 3-day Easter weekend, led by the $130M Super Mario Galaxy debut). Leading the pack will be Paramount’s Scary Movie, the sixth installment in the spoof series, following closely on the heels of the studio’s $121.9M domestic gross for Scream 7. The return of creators The Wayans’ and original stars Marlon Wayans and Anna Faris rings the nostalgia bell big time.
Cons
- Scary Movie is poised to mark a major comeback for the R-rated comedy, the last genre to not score a major box office hit since the pandemic. Discounting action comedy Deadpool & Wolverine, the biggest have been Anyone but You ($88.3M) and No Hard Feelings ($50.45M), but the salad days of $150M+ domestic grossers like 21 Jump Street, Neighbors, Bridesmaids, and Wedding Crashers are long over.
The Scary Movie parody franchise itself has had an uneven history in terms of opening numbers and overall domestic totals, often tied to the performance of a given Scream sequel…
- Scary Movie 3 (2003) – $48.1M opening/$110M total
- Scary Movie (2000) – $42.3M opening/$157M total
- Scary Movie 4 (2006) – $40.2M opening/$90.7M total
- Scary Movie 2 (2001) – $20.5M opening/$71.27M total
- Scary Movie V (2013) – $14.15M opening/$32M total
For the new installment, our panel is currently expecting an opening weekend in the high $40M range, with the potential to over-perform and hit the $50M mark.
The Battle for Second
2. Masters of the Universe
Amazon/MGM | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $30M – $40M
Showtime Market Share: 14%
Pros
- Amazon/MGM and their partners at Mattel have put big money -estimates as high as over $200M- to bring the classic 80’s toy line Masters of the Universe to vivid life on the big screen for the first time in nearly four decades. After the Dolph Lundgren-led version of He-Man died the death in ’87, a revival project went through a tortured history at Sony, then became a nuclear football passed to Netflix, and finally to Amazon. Like Mattel’s previous hit Barbie, they are going a somewhat meta route, crossing over between the fantasy world of Eternia and contemporary America, with plenty of Marvel-style “Isn’t this silly even though we’re playing it straight?” attitude. Rotten Tomatoes’ critical score is a solid 75%, but word of mouth will be the ultimate factor once opening weekend comes.
Cons
- Masters has been tracking in the mid-$20Ms to low $30Ms for a while now, but an increase in sales in the week leading up to the release should make things more competitive heading into opening weekend. We expect a tight race between this and Backrooms, with the slightest edge for second place going to Masters due to a slight lead in showtime marketshare and a wider PLF footprint. It’s a dead heat at the moment, with either film poised to pull ahead by Friday afternoon, although Masters has steeper lower-end potential. The studio spent as if expecting Star Wars grosses from Masters of the Universe, but when even Star Wars is not making Star Wars money, nostalgia is no longer the color to bet on. The best comp for this might be the equally jaunty comedy-fantasy of 2023’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, which opened to a disappointing $37.2M before totaling an undistinguished $93.5M… even though those who went enjoyed it (“A-” CinemaScore, 92% audience score).
3. Backrooms
A24 | Week 2
Opening Weekend Range: $30M – $35M
Showtime Market Share: 13%
Pros
- Absolutely no one expected A24’s Backrooms to launch with $81.4M, even though it piggybacked on a YouTube phenomenon. Theaters scrambled to book more screens as pre-orders went through the roof in the days leading up to release, resulting in the biggest box office surprise of the year. Backrooms is coming in red hot when it comes to buzz this weekend, and we could potentially see the title begin to expand beyond its core audience base this weekend.
Cons
- Both Masters and Backrooms are each expected to gross in the $30M range this weekend, and it will all come down to how much that “B-” CinemaScore from Backrooms impacts its sophomore frame. A24 has a history of Trojan-horsing specialty fare on general audiences who aren’t always on board. Yes, it’s a big slide for Backrooms from an $81M debut, and while Obsession should hold firm once again with another weekend around the $20M mark, we don’t expect Backrooms to sustain the same momentum. It shouldn’t matter much after that $80M+ debut, though, as Backrooms is already firmly established as the box office surprise to beat in 2026. A sophomore frame in the $30M’s would’ve been considered terrific as an opening weekend, so at this point, we are just curious about the film’s ceiling.
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