The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 24 – 26, 2026
Week 30 | July 24 – 26, 2026
1. The Odyssey
Universal | Week 2
Weekend Range: $75M – $85M
Showtime Market Share: 22%
Pros
- Christopher Nolan’s throwback fantasy epic The Odyssey gave summer 2026 just the infusion of excitement it needed after a few moribund frames bolstered by tired IP. It shot past all expectations with a $123.5M bow ($1M below Sunday estimates), and has already shot past $300M globally. The film continued to print money with $18.67M on Monday alone, which is more than Obsession‘s entire opening weekend ($17.19M). Right now the film is pacing to join the coveted billion club before the end of its run alongside Super Mario Galaxy, Michael, and (likely) Toy Story 5.
Cons
- If this week’s ranges look like déjà vu to you, that’s not just your mind playing tricks. Our panel is predicting a holding pattern for the Top 3 as our summer tentpoles do their best to keep things afloat for another $100M+ frame until Spider-Man swings in. We are looking at a strong hold for The Odyssey the second time around. We wouldn’t be surprised if this movie comes in $5M above or under our forecast, as walk-up sales outside of premium auditoriums remain a wildcard factor for the film’s performance in week 2. Stellar word-of-mouth and reviews should help boost demand beyond opening weekend, and the limited supply of PLF tickets on opening weekend will only make the expensive seats more coveted.
2. Moana
Disney | Week 3
Weekend Range: $9M – $11M
Showtime Market Share: 10%
Pros
- While Disney’s live-action Moana re-do fell hard in its sophomore frame after a less-than-spectacular debut, its -58% Frame 2 hold was not a bad as Supergirl‘s -77% earlier this season, nor Snow White‘s -66% drop last year. It was about on-par with Dwayne Johnson’s previous Disney-branded dud Jungle Cruise, which fell -54.8% from its debut. Overall a $17.93M second weekend (down from $19M estimates) and a current $83.2M domestic/$179.55M WW total is not what anyone was hoping for from this title. Whatever the hold this weekend, the movie’s fate is sealed at this point.
Cons
- Alongside Mandalorian and Supergirl, Moana will no doubt be a poster child for this year’s widespread rejection of certain over-mined brands on the small and big screen. While there will always be a place for franchises at the box office, 2026 has shown a wistfulness for fresh product like Project Hail Mary, Obsession, Backrooms, even Disney’s own Hoppers. Whether this will be reflected in the current studio production pipeline remains to be seen…
3. Toy Story 5
Disney | Week 6
Weekend Range: $8M – $10M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
Pros
- Toy Story 5 posted its lowest frame drop yet with -28% as this summer’s reigning champ continues to be good as gold for cinemas. Even after five weeks the movie still boasts roughly 3/4s of its original screen count, and at a current $431.59M the sequel is set to pass the domestic lifetime of Toy Story 4 ($434M) by today to become the #4 Pixar title of all time.
Cons
- Toy Story 5 ($13.76M) closely beat out Minions & Monsters ($13.6M) for third, just as we forecasted, once actuals came in on Monday. It should be another close race between the two animated family titles this weekend, where we expect a similar result. Moana could tumble to third, or at very worst down to fourth below Minions, depending on how things play out.
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