Early Weekend Projections: ‘Rogue One’ Dominating ($67.5M 3-Day); ‘Sing’ Strong ($33M); ‘Passengers’ ($13.5M) & ‘Assassin’s Creed’ ($9M) Underwhelm; ‘Why Him?’ Modest ($10.375M)

Saturday Christmas Eve Update: As expected, Rogue One continues to dominate the market with an estimated $22.775 million take on Friday, giving it an excellent $244.77 million total through eight days of release. We’re projecting the Star Wars spin-off will take in approximately $67.5 million for the three-day frame and $102 million over the four-day Christmas-observed weekend.

Sing is the big winner of this week’s releases as it took in another $13.07 million yesterday for a three-day cume so far of $33.7 million. Based on the trajectory of 2005 and 2011 releases — when Christmas also landed on a Sunday — the animated success is pacing for a Friday-Saturday-Sunday haul of $33 million and $54 million over the four-day period, which would give it a strong $74.6 million six-day launch.

Meanwhile, Passengers added $4.5 million yesterday and should claim around $13.5 million FSS and $21 million FSSM, making for a likely $28.3 million six-day opening; Why Him? debuted in fourth place with $3.915 million yesterday, eyeing a three-day launch of $10.375 million and 4-day of $15.1 million; while Assassin’s Creed posted $3.715 million on Friday and should claim $9 million FSS and $12.7 million FSSM for a six-day total opening of $20.2 million.

Meanwhile, La La Land and Manchester By the Sea continue to perform strongly in limited-to-moderate release with plenty of awards buzz on their backs. Martin Scorsese’s Silence pulled $64,000 from four locations on opening day yesterday, Patriots Day earned another $52,577 from seven locations, and Fences claimed $26,000 from four theaters before it expands into wide release on Christmas Day (it’s expected to tally around $4.3 million on Sunday and around $7.8 million for Sunday and Monday combined).

Our initial three-day weekend projections and key four-day projections based on the studios’ Friday estimates are below. Official studio estimates for the three- and four-day frames will be published on Monday.

Friday, December 23 – Sunday, December 25, 2016 Projected Estimates

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $67,500,000 -56% 4,157 0 $16,238 $289,499,674 2 Disney
2 Sing (2016) $33,000,000 4,022 $8,205 $53,612,640 1 Universal
3 Passengers $13,500,000 3,478 $3,882 $20,825,201 1 Sony / Columbia
4 Why Him? $10,375,000 3,557 $2,917 $10,375,000 1 Fox
5 Assassin’s Creed $9,000,000 2,970 $3,030 $16,492,398 1 Fox
6 Moana $6,600,000 -48% 2,784 -803 $2,371 $179,632,191 5 Disney
7 Office Christmas Party $4,700,000 -45% 1,630 -1580 $2,883 $41,739,602 3 Paramount / DreamWorks
8 Fences $4,300,000 3221% 2,233 2229 $1,926 $4,491,515 2 Paramount
9 Manchester By the Sea $3,400,000 -20% 1,213 7 $2,803 $20,115,116 6 Roadside / Amazon
10 Collateral Beauty $3,100,000 -56% 3,028 0 $1,024 $14,101,500 2 Warner Bros. / New Line
11 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $2,450,000 -52% 1,966 -1070 $1,246 $213,755,251 6 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 La La Land $4,100,000 0% 205 5 $20,000 $11,982,711 3 Lionsgate / Summit
2 Jackie $1,250,000 118% 339 255 $3,687 $3,561,442 4 Fox Searchlight
3 Arrival $1,200,000 -60% 667 -1490 $1,799 $89,502,358 7 Paramount
4 Doctor Strange $745,000 -66% 631 -1299 $1,181 $228,363,966 8 Disney
5 Trolls $415,000 -70% 499 -1215 $832 $148,681,158 8 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6 Hacksaw Ridge $370,000 -61% 428 -913 $864 $63,742,876 8 Lionsgate
7 Allied $200,000 -85% 228 -1397 $877 $39,307,022 5 Paramount

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Lion $300,000 126% 55 39 $5,455 $1,153,433 5 Weinstein Company
2 Silence $180,000 4 $45,000 $180,000 1 Paramount
3 Patriots Day $180,000 7 $25,714 $275,412 1 CBS Films / Lionsgate
4 Miss Sloane $60,000 -87% 67 -1396 $896 $3,457,950 5 EuropaCorp

4-Day Top 10 Projections:

  1. Rogue One ($102 million)
  2. Sing ($54 million)
  3. Passengers ($21 million)
  4. Why Him? ($15.1 million)
  5. Assassin’s Creed ($12.7 million)
  6. Moana ($11 million)
  7. Fences ($7.8 million)
  8. La La Land ($7 million)
  9. Office Christmas Party ($6.8 million)
  10. Manchester By the Sea ($5.1 million)

===

Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Rogue One added $16.7 million on Thursday, giving it a seven-day domestic haul of $221.9 million. Meanwhile, Sing took in another $9.6 million in its second day of play and now stands at $20.6 million. Passengers added $3.2 million for a two-day cume of $7.3 million, while Assassin’s Creed grossed a $2.8 million yesterday and has tallied $7.5 million since debuting Wednesday.

Last but not least, Why Him? started with $975,000 from shows that began at 7pm last night.

The stage is set for a busy holiday week, with expansions from Fences and La La Land still on deck for Christmas Day.

We’ll have early weekend projections based on official Friday estimates for key releases come Saturday morning.

===

Wednesday Report: With long six-day openings ahead, three of this week’s Christmastime releases debuted to generally expected numbers on Tuesday evening.

Leading the way was Universal/Illumination’s Sing with $1.7 million, which topped The Good Dinosaur‘s $1.3 million on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving last year. Fox’s Assassin’s Creed launched to $1.35 million last night, less than half of Warcraft‘s $3.1 million back in June — although Creed should play differently in the days ahead with a prolonged opening weekend.

Meanwhile, Passengers bagged $1.2 million last night, coming in behind The Martian‘s $2.5 million Thursday night launch in early October last year.

Of course, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story led the day as a whole with another estimated $17.6 million. That gives the blockbuster spinoff a five-day domestic tally of $190.3 million as it continues to enjoy strong word of mouth.

More updates as they come in the days ahead, as well as our final weekend forecast later today.

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