3-Day Estimates: Alita Targets $24M; LEGO Movie 2 Eyes $21M+; Isn’t It Romantic Solid at $13M+; Happy Death Day 2U Underperforms

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Saturday Update: The extended double holiday weekend continues to wreak havoc on some pre-release projections as the race for the top spot will be closer than expected — and with one less contender than previously thought.

Fox’s Alita: Battle Angel is coming in slightly ahead of expectations with a $16.25 million two-day start, including $7.53 million on Friday. This is a comparable start to the two-day tally of A Good Day to Die Hard ($15.44 million) when it opened on the same weekend with the same calendar alignment in 2013. As of this morning, Fox projects Alita will take in $24.7 million over the traditional three-day weekend and $29.125 million over the four-day frame. That would give the pic an overall $37.8 million five-day domestic bow (Thursday through Friday), beating Fox’s hopes of a $30 million start in that timeframe.

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part added $4.45 million on Friday, giving it $45.9 million domestically through eight days of play. Current weekend projections stand at $21.8 million (three-day) and $28.7 million (4-day), potentially falling behind Alita for the weekend crown unless the latter title proves to have burned off most of its fan demand prior to Saturday.

Isn’t It Romantic is generally performing within the range of expectations with a healthy $4.18 million Friday take, giving it $10.425 million earned in two days thus far. The rom-com is pacing for a three-day $13.6 million weekend and $16 million over the four-day, which would give it an overall $22.2 million six-day opening (Wednesday through Friday).

What Men Want rang up another $2.93 million on Friday for an updated haul of $28.2 million. Look for a three-day frame around $10 million and $11.6 million for the four-day.

Capping the top five, Happy Death Day 2U marks the latest in a growing string of under-performers early in 2019 as it continues to fall well short of pre-release forecasts. The low-budget, generally well-reviewed horror sequel added $2.85 million on Friday, giving it $6.56 million after three days in release. Barring a major pick-up on Saturday — which isn’t typical for horror sequels — the film is pacing for a three-day weekend around $9.07 million and a four-day around $10.54 million (both are studio projections). That would give the pic an overall $14.25 million six-day bow (Wednesday through Monday), coming in below Universal’s expected $20 million start over the same timeframe.

Meanwhile, Fighting with My Family earned $35,967 from four locations on Friday, giving it a healthy $8,992 per-theater average and a two-day total of $70,241. The well-reviewed film expands nationwide next week.

A mix of three-day weekend estimates from studios and Boxoffice projections are below. Updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, FEB. 15 – SUN, FEB. 17

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Alita: Battle Angel $24,700,000 3,790 $6,517 $33,416,232 1 20th Century Fox
2 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $21,800,000 -36% 4,303 0 $5,066 $63,275,359 4 Warner Bros.
3 Isn’t It Romantic $13,600,000 3,444 $3,949 $19,845,347 1 Warner Bros.
4 What Men Want $10,000,000 -45% 2,912 0 $3,434 $35,230,328 2 Paramount
5 Happy Death Day 2U $9,000,000 3,207 $2,806 $12,711,500 1 Universal Pictures
6 Cold Pursuit $6,000,000 -46% 2,630 0 $2,281 $21,122,332 2 Lionsgate / Summit
7 The Upside $5,400,000 -24% 2,781 -591 $1,942 $94,007,031 6 STX Entertainment
8 Glass $3,900,000 -38% 2,449 -805 $1,592 $104,533,915 5 Universal
9 The Prodigy $3,000,000 -49% 2,530 0 $1,186 $10,865,474 2 Orion Pictures
10 Green Book $2,900,000 -16% 1,618 -531 $1,792 $65,905,401 14 Universal Pictures
11 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $2,200,000 -28% 1,207 -519 $1,823 $182,955,904 10 Sony / Columbia
12 Aquaman $1,900,000 -41% 1,264 -938 $1,503 $331,386,102 10 Warner Bros.
13 Miss Bala $980,000 -64% 1,172 -1031 $836 $13,871,198 3 Sony Pictures
14 Ralph Breaks the Internet $785,000 130% 1,354 956 $580 $198,472,244 13 Disney

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 A Star is Born $900,000 65% 843 387 $1,068 $209,911,688 20 Warner Bros.
2 A Dog’s Way Home $890,000 -55% 880 -1129 $1,011 $40,341,394 6 Sony Pictures
3 They Shall Not Grow Old $880,000 -48% 626 -201 $1,406 $15,151,347 9 Warner Bros.
4 Bohemian Rhapsody $865,000 -34% 562 -277 $1,539 $211,896,709 16 20th Century Fox
5 Escape Room $605,000 -62% 635 -704 $953 $55,705,767 7 Sony Pictures
6 The Favourite $545,000 -33% 324 -281 $1,682 $31,088,285 13 Fox Searchlight
7 Vice $500,000 -23% 702 -5 $712 $46,020,237 8 Annapurna
8 Bumblebee $430,000 -50% 584 -392 $736 $126,471,658 9 Paramount Pictures
9 Mary Poppins Returns $390,000 -53% 345 -497 $1,130 $170,418,203 9 Disney
10 The Kid Who Would Be King $360,000 -75% 415 -1431 $867 $16,305,074 4 20th Century Fox
11 If Beale Street Could Talk $200,000 -26% 165 -101 $1,212 $14,114,657 10 Annapurna

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Fighting With My Family $115,000 4 $28,750 $149,274 1 MGM
2 Ek Ladki Ko Dekha Toh Aisa Laga $42,000 -83% 43 -149 $977 $1,154,088 3 FIP
3 Replicas $2,700 -69% 12 -17 $225 $4,044,534 6 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

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Friday Report: Fox’s Alita: Battle Angel scored an $8.7 million opening on Thursday, leading all films in the market on Valentine’s Day. That tally includes $2.425 million from preview shows on both Wednesday night and Tuesday night, meaning Thursday’s proper gross was $6.275 million.

Landing in second place on its second day of release, Isn’t It Romantic grabbed $4.44 million in a strong Valentine’s turnout. That gives the Rebel Wilson-led rom-com a $6.265 million two-day domestic total heading into the long weekend.

Rounding out the openers, Happy Death Day 2U reportedly earned $2.7 million yesterday for an updated two-day haul of $3.68 million.

Meanwhile, The LEGO Movie 2 posted $2.23 million in its seventh day of release, now standing at $41.5 million domestically.

Further updates ahead on Saturday and throughout the weekend.

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