MLK Weekend Estimates: ‘Glass’ Cracks $41M/$48M 3-Day/4-Day Start; ‘The Upside’ Holds Strong at $14M/$17M; ‘Aquaman’ Adds $10.9M/$13.6M

Saturday Update: Universal reports Glass debuted with $16 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $3.7 million start. That represents the third best-ever opening Friday on MLK weekend, following American Sniper‘s $30.3 million in 2015 and Cloverfield‘s $17.2 million in 2008. It’s also 9 percent ahead of Split‘s $14.6 million first day two years ago.

While Glass somewhat unexpectedly fell victim to poor critics’ reviews ahead of release last week — slowing down a previously bullish tracking pace for a higher debut — this is still a more-than-respectable start for Shyamalan’s trilogy-capper, particularly considering the film’s modest $20 million production budget (far less than Unbreakable‘s $75 million over 18 years ago). For the holiday weekend, Universal is projecting a $41.3 million three-day take and $48 million through Monday.

Holding strong in second place to start the weekend, The Upside eased just 40 percent from opening day last Friday to $4.17 million yesterday. That gives the hit dramedy a $32.5 million eight-day domestic tally as it paces toward a strong holiday weekend rerun. STX is projecting $14 million / $17 million for the three- and four-day split, although our internal projections indicate potential to go a little higher.

Rounding off the top three, Aquaman added $2.51 million on its 29th day of release as it marches toward the $300 million domestic benchmark. With $296.5 million in the bank so far, the DC blockbuster is pacing for a $10.9 million three-day and $13.6 million over the four-day.

Early three-day weekend estimates are below.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JAN. 18 – SUN, JAN. 20

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Glass $41,400,000 3,841 $10,778 $41,400,000 1 Universal
2 The Upside $15,100,000 -26% 3,320 240 $4,548 $43,413,439 2 STX Entertainment
3 Aquaman $10,900,000 -37% 3,475 -388 $3,137 $304,906,848 6 Warner Bros.
4 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $8,000,000 -12% 2,712 -317 $2,950 $159,001,385 6 Sony / Columbia
5 A Dog’s Way Home $7,900,000 -30% 3,090 0 $2,557 $22,068,496 2 Sony Pictures
6 Mary Poppins Returns $5,400,000 -29% 2,810 -443 $1,922 $158,887,814 5 Disney
7 Escape Room $5,100,000 -43% 2,709 -8 $1,883 $40,525,948 3 Sony Pictures
8 Bumblebee $4,900,000 -32% 2,711 -592 $1,807 $116,183,676 5 Paramount Pictures
9 On The Basis Of Sex $3,900,000 -36% 1,957 34 $1,993 $16,811,747 4 Focus Features
10 The Mule $3,500,000 -38% 2,688 -641 $1,302 $96,924,689 6 Warner Bros.
11 Bohemian Rhapsody $2,300,000 -28% 1,177 -157 $1,954 $202,032,484 12 20th Century Fox
12 Ralph Breaks the Internet $2,000,000 -11% 1,936 382 $1,033 $193,059,032 9 Disney
13 If Beale Street Could Talk $1,900,000 -21% 1,018 0 $1,866 $10,715,560 6 Annapurna
14 Vice $1,700,000 -47% 1,175 -549 $1,447 $39,083,363 4 Annapurna
15 Replicas $475,000 -80% 2,329 0 $204 $3,700,873 2 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Dragon Ball Super: Broly $7,000,000 467 $14,989 $7,000,000 1 FUNimation Entertainment
2 Green Book $2,200,000 2% 912 170 $2,412 $2,200,000 10 Universal Pictures
3 The Favourite $820,000 -26% 517 5 $1,586 $22,809,025 9 Fox Searchlight
4 A Star is Born $620,000 -45% 415 21 $1,494 $204,680,733 16 Warner Bros.
5 Mary Queen of Scots $380,000 -55% 405 -424 $938 $16,056,509 7 Focus Features
6 Creed II $240,000 -16% 525 170 $457 $115,232,617 9 MGM / Warner Bros
7 Perfect Strangers $160,000 -62% 132 0 $1,212 $712,702 2 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Destroyer $160,000 7% 50 23 $3,200 $646,084 4 Annapurna Pictures

===

Friday Update: Universal reports this morning that M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass cracked open $3.7 million on Thursday evening to begin the long holiday weekend. The film opened at 7pm in 3,200 domestic locations.

For comparison purposes, here’s how that stacks up to recent genre films:

  • 85 percent ahead of Split ($2.0 million)
  • 14 percent behind A Quiet Place ($4.3 million)
  • 32 percent behind The Nun ($5.4 million)

Due to the holiday weekend and older target audience, we’re holding off on any weekend extrapolations at this stage. Check back Saturday morning for further analysis and early weekend estimates.

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