Saturday Update: Disney reports that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 posted $15.7 million on Friday, bringing its eight-day domestic haul to $168.4 million and setting pace for a second weekend that could top $60 million.
Entering the frame, a weekend over $50 million would have already been a very good result for the sequel as forecasts called for a sub-60 percent drop and one of the two best showings from an MCU film in the post-pandemic era. Vol. 3 will eclipse even that expectation.
If the film follows a similar path as Vol. 2 did six years ago, when Mother’s Day weekend also landed on its second frame Vol. 3 could ring up around $62 million for a fantastic 48 percent decline.
Clearly, the Marvel fan base is still more than eager to turn out for the franchise when word of mouth is this positive. The film’s Rotten Tomatoes audience score is still 95 percent as of this morning.
On the opening front, Book Club: The Next Chapter earned $2.14 million on Friday, including all previews from earlier in the week. Focus estimates a $7 million weekend, though models indicate a higher ceiling thanks to expected Mother’s Day boosts. Exceeding $8 million looks achievable, with a fair shot at more than $9 million if the holiday hits on all cylinders for the target audience.
Meanwhile, The Super Mario Bros. Movie continues to hit milestones. While it now stands at $525.9 million domestically (17th all-time through Friday), the film is now the 4th biggest animated film in history at the worldwide box office and Universal’s best ever around the globe. It surpassed Minions ($1.16 billion) and is projected to reach $1.213 billion by the end of Sunday.
Friday Update: Focus Features’ Book Club: The Next Chapter earned a reported $550K (previously reported as $500K) from domestic previews, which includes shows beginning at 5pm Thursday as well as 1pm early access screenings last Sunday.
That figure is on par with expectations entering the weekend as the sequel looks to play throughout the weekend thanks to Mother’s Day on Sunday. Similar films include 80 for Brady ($1.27 million from all previews, $750K from Thursday only), Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. ($600K), and Ticket to Paradise ($1.1 million, including early access).
Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 stood at $145.54 million after six days of domestic play through Wednesday. It has an increasingly strong chance to top $50 million in its sophomore frame, as mentioned below, and may even come in above final ranges.
Prior forecasts and full analysis are below.