Boxoffice Pro’s 2025 Domestic Forecast:
$9.3 – $9.7 Billion

The domestic box office rallied to a strong finish in 2024, making up ground in the second half of the year to give much-needed momentum to theatrical exhibition. The industry is entering 2025 with the support of the first fully uninterrupted year of Hollywood production since 2019. This crucial factor should see a significant increase in the number of wide releases hitting theaters. We expect 2025 to set a new benchmark in the postpandemic moviegoing era, topping 2023’s $9 billion in box office thanks to a diverse and consistent slate of studio releases. A slow first quarter will ramp up to what we expect to be a major moviegoing summer, with a potential box office breakout scheduled every frame from the beginning of May through the first weekend of August. The majority of our forecasting panel—comprised of senior executives representing exhibition, distribution, and premium large format—predicts the domestic market to perform between $9.3 and $9.7 billion, with a potential ceiling of $10 billion in a best-case scenario.  

Q1: A Slow Start to the Year

Key Movies:

Captain America: Brave New World 
February 14 / Disney (Marvel)

Snow White 
March 28 / Disney 

The first tentpole of the year won’t arrive until Valentine’s Day, when Disney introduces a new Captain America (Anthony Mackie) in Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World. Marketing for the title has already revealed co-star Harrison Ford transforming into fan-favorite villain Red Hulk, a potential spoiler sacrificed to ramp up interest in the film. The post-Avengers crop of Marvel superheroes has struggled to find the same success as its predecessors at the box office, but Brave New World could very well be where Marvel regains the uninterrupted success it enjoyed last decade. The new Captain America will need to carry the market into late March, when Disney’s next tentpole—the live-action retelling of Snow White starring Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot—hits screens for what promises to be another strong box office outing. 

There will be little else with breakout potential in the first quarter, with Christmas releases like Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King expected to compete for holdover screens against the expansion of adult-skewing award contenders. Universal and Dreamworks Animation will have the family market to themselves in late January and early February with Dog Man, an adaptation of a popular children’s book series, expected to become the first real earner of the 2025 slate. In early March, director Ryan Coogler could score a word-of-mouth hit with the horror thriller Sinners, starring his frequent collaborator, Michael B. Jordan. Viral marketing is already underway for the title, the first original title (not based on an existing property) from Coogler since his 2013 feature debut, Fruitvale Station. 

Q2: A Return to Prepandemic Attendance Levels

Key Movies:

Thunderbolts*
May 2 / Disney (Marvel)

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
May 23 / Paramount 

Lilo & Stitch
May 23 / Disney 

How to Train Your Dragon
June 13/ Universal 

Elio
June 13 / Disney (Pixar)

The second quarter of 2025 promises to be the strongest of the year, anchored by a handful of tentpoles and complemented by various potential breakout hits. April starts with a promising family-friendly film, Warner Bros.’ A Minecraft Movie, giving the popular videogame an irreverent spin resembling Sony’s Jumanji movies. May will see the release of Disney’s second Marvel title of the year in Thunderbolts*, which looks to be the MCU’s answer to DC Comics’ Suicide Squad antihero supergroup. While Marvel hero team-ups not known as Avengers have struggled at the box office—2021’s Eternals ($164M) and 2023’s The Marvels ($84M)—Thunderbolts* should benefit from the lead-in of Captain America: Brave New World in February. 

Memorial Day weekend should be considerably more competitive than the previous year’s frame, when Warner Bros.’ Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($67M) and Sony’s The Garfield Movie ($92M) failed to connect with audiences. This year, Paramount will roll out Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning alongside Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch. The Mission: Impossible franchise is coming off its second-lowest-grossing entry in franchise history (2023’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, $172M), prompting a title change for the most recent entry and a marketing campaign hinting it could be Tom Cruise’s final outing as its protagonist. Disney could find a Moana 2–level hit with its live-action Lilo & Stitch that same weekend, a remake of a 2002 animated title that has since garnered a loyal following on streaming. Sony’s Karate Kid: Legends comes in at the end of May, following the conclusion of the final season of TV’s Cobra Kai series. If Karate Kid can convert the series’ streaming fans to ticket buyers, we could be looking at a new feature film franchise for Sony. 

June starts with Lionsgate’s John Wick spin-off, Ballerina, starring Ana De Armas as a super-assassin in its growing cinematic universe. Originally scheduled for a summer 2023 release, Ballerina was rescheduled and retooled by the studio to make its connection with the main franchise clear. Mid-June will see two competing family titles sharing the same release date, with Universal’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon opening against Disney Pixar’s Elio on June 13. The overlap could cost both titles, but we remain confident they’ll combine to positive returns for exhibitors throughout the summer. Pixar, in particular, hopes to re-establish momentum with its originals in Elio. The animation studio hasn’t released an original title over the $200 million domestic mark since 2017’s Coco. 

June ends with a trio of older-skewing releases with breakout potential. Sony launched its viral marketing for 28 Years Later as early as December 2024, drawing strong buzz from genre fans. Horror hounds will also be able to catch killer robot doll sequel M3gan 2.0 the following weekend. The quarter ends with Apple’s next test at the box office in director Joseph Kosinski’s racing drama, F1. The Formula 1 movie could benefit from increased interest in the sport stateside (largely due to Netflix’s documentary series Drive to Survive). However, it is more likely to find its audience in overseas markets.  

Q3: A Tale of Two Halves

Key Movies:

Jurassic World: Rebirth
July 2 / Universal

Superman
July 11 / Warner Bros. 

The Fantastic Four: First Steps
July 25 / Disney (Marvel)

The third quarter of the year is expected to get off to a hot start with a July that could finish as the highest-grossing month of the year. Universal’s Jurassic World: Rebirth ushers in a Fourth of July frame with diminishing domestic returns for the franchise. The last entry in the series, 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion ($376M), finished some distance behind the 2015 Jurassic World relaunch ($653M). That decline won’t worry exhibitors too much, as Dominion still finished the year as the fifth highest-grossing release of 2022. Anything near the $300 million mark for Jurassic World: Rebirth will be received enthusiastically by theater operators come July. 

Superman will fly into theaters on July 11 with a tremendous amount of anticipation for Warner Bros.’ newly rebuilt DC Comics universe. It is the first of two superhero tentpoles to be released that month, with Disney’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps coming two weeks later on July 25. Will superhero fatigue set in, or will audiences turn out to support these two iconic properties? 

After a somewhat muted superhero summer in 2024, where Deadpool & Wolverine was the only title in the genre to meet or exceed expectations, the upside of the super double feature is too promising to downplay. 

Q4: An Encore Performance

Key Movies:

Wicked: For Good
November 21 / Universal

Zootopia 2
November 26 / Disney

Avatar: Fire and Ash
December 19 / Disney 

The 2025 holiday corridor has a lot of similarities to its equivalent weekends the previous year. The big difference? We expect a lot more from October, with a potential blockbuster in Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic, Michael (October 3). Despite the inconsistent nature of the musical biopic at the box office, Michael Jackson’s story—particularly one that focuses primarily on his music and live performances—is ripe for a big-screen adaptation. Michael could perform comparably to the 2018 Queen/Freddie Mercury biopic, Bohemian Rhapsody ($216M), and keep running deep into November if it can capture its audience. 

Universal’s Wicked will return for its second act on November 21, the same weekend that launched the first act to a $375M-plus run in 2024. If this all sounds familiar, it’s because the ensuing tentpoles on the schedules follow a nearly identical schedule to the equivalent release corridor in 2024. Disney’s Zootopia 2 will open the following Wednesday and is expected to dominate the holiday frame with a strong hold from Wicked: For Good, exactly the way Moana 2 sparked last year’s Thanksgiving weekend. Paramount, Disney, and Universal enjoyed an uncontested run at the box office up through the pre-Christmas weekend. The same will happen in 2025, with Disney’s Avatar: Fire and Ash scheduled to open on December 19 and claim the lion’s share of ticket sales through the end of the year.