4-Day MLK Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE BEEKEEPER, THE BOOK OF CLARENCE, and MEAN GIRLS

Photo (c) 2024 Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures Inc. All Rights Reserved.; ; © 2023 Legendary Entertainment. All rights reserved. MORIS PUCCIO; Photo: Jojo Whilden/Paramount © 2023 Paramount Pictures.

2024’s first major holiday weekend sees the nationwide release of three key studio films as other holdovers look to extend their staying power over the long Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend.

The Beekeeper

MGM

January 12, 2024 (WIDE)

4-Day Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M

WEEKEND PROS:

  • Paramount’s Mean Girls revival looks to stand out in a notable way with healthy appeal to female audiences ranging from teenagers to thirty-somethings who grew up with the original 2004 sleeper hit. Pre-sales are trending ahead of 2022’s MLK opener, the Scream revival, entering the week of release.
  • MGM is counter-programming with the Jason Statham-led The Beekeeper in hopes of pulling the male audiences and action fans who similarly helped last year’s Plane do respectable numbers over the same holiday. Beekeeper sales are pacing ahead of the Gerard Butler-starring pic at the same point.
  • Sony, meanwhile, makes its play with a modern take on the religious movie canvas with The Book of Clarence in hopes of stirring appeal among young Black audiences during MLK weekend. Early reviews are positive at 76 percent from 37 critics as of Wednesday morning.
  • Holdovers will remain key, most notably Wonka with its family appeal and strong reception, alongside Anyone But You. The latter stunned the industry with an almost-unheard-of 11.4 percent weekend gain coming off of New Year’s weekend. Reception and star Sydney Sweeney’s social media prowess among young women continue to help the film over-perform.

The Book of Clarence

Sony Pictures

January 12, 2024 (WIDE)

4-Day Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$7M

WEEKEND CONS:

  • Initial pre-sale and social trends for Mean Girls showed some signs of possible front-loading, though those concerns have started to wane as post-preview sales begin to pick up traction. How much its momentum grows with today’s younger female audience and middle-aged patrons who have aged out of the core moviegoing crowd will be contingent on word of mouth.
  • Statham’s drawing power has leveled out in recent years as his action films tend to draw a relatively predictable audience size. The Beekeeper may have somewhat of a limited ceiling unless reception veers more strongly from the star’s recent averages.
  • In general, social and pre-sales traction for Book of Clarence have been lukewarm leading up to release. That said, it’s the type of film that could pop in the eleventh hour if positive reviews carry over into mainstream buzz.
  • Aside from the aforementioned Wonka and Anyone But You, most holiday holdovers remain weak in the aggregate relative to years past due to the absence of a major event-level performed leading in from December.

Mean Girls

Paramount Pictures

January 12, 2024 (WIDE)

4-Day Opening Weekend Range: $28M-$37M

Current projection ranges call for a 10% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $98.9 million in 2023 and an 8% decrease from 2019’s $96.8 million frame.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd 4-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 15
Mean Girls (2023) Paramount Pictures $30,900,000 ~3,700 NEW $34,600,000 $34,600,000
Wonka Warner Bros. Pictures $10,100,000 ~3,600 -28% $12,600,000 $180,700,000
The Beekeeper MGM $10,700,000 ~3,000 NEW $12,200,000 $12,200,000
Anyone But You Sony & Columbia Pictures $8,000,000 ~3,100 -18% $10,300,000 $58,500,000
Migration Universal Pictures & Illumination $7,700,000 ~3,400 -23% $10,100,000 $90,300,000

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Photo (c) 2024 Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures Inc. All Rights Reserved.; ; © 2023 Legendary Entertainment. All rights reserved. MORIS PUCCIO; Photo: Jojo Whilden/Paramount © 2023 Paramount Pictures.
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