4-Day Weekend Actuals: ‘Black Panther’ Grosses $242.5M, 2nd-Highest All Time; ‘Jumanji’ First Film w/ 9 Top-5 Weekends Since ‘Force Awakens’

From the Magazine • paulinev • February 18 2018

Tuesday Update:

Black Panther is even bigger than we thought. Studio actuals have the superhero film coming in at $242.5 million over the four-day weekend – nearly $7 million more than yesterday’s estimates. That makes the Disney/Marvel release the second-largest four-day opening in history, second only to Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($288.1 million) and just ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.5 million).

The result came thanks to an all-time record Monday, with the film taking in a whopping $40.2 million, beating out previous record-holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($40.1 million). Overseas, Black Panther grossed an estimated $15.2 million on Monday, giving it a global total of $426.6 million to date.

[Note: adjusted for ticket price inflation, Black Panther “only” posts the fourth-best four-day start of all time, behind The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, and The Avengers. It also “only” posts the third-best Monday ever, behind The Force Awakens and Spider-Man 2.]

“So many factors had to come together, but so many did,” Dave Hollis, Disney’s President of Worldwide Theatrical Distribution, said in an interview with Boxoffice. “It starts with so much enthusiasm from the fans. This is a movie for everyone, with a global campaign and a global launch. We’d been planting hints about Wakanda for so long, since [2016’s] Captain America: Civil War.”

“We wanted to tell a story about a raccoon and a talking tree — come along, we promise!” Hollis laughs. “People went along because it’s Marvel, and had a better time than they ever thought they’d have. They always exceed your expectations.”
Also of note this weekend: Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle spends its ninth weekend in the box office top five — the first film to do so since The Force Awakens in February 2016.
Total box office this weekend was $285.9 million / $345.8 million for the 3/4-day. The three-day was up more than double from last weekend, and also up 59% / 92% from the 3/4-day Presidents Day weekend last year.
Year-to-date total box office stands at $1.64 billion, up 8.5 percent from the $1.52 billion at this point last year. This is a welcome change from as recently as last weekend, when year-to-date total box office was actually down from 2017.
The full table of four-day weekend actuals is at bottom, after our Monday and Sunday updates featuring further analysis.

Monday Update:

The revised weekend estimate for Disney’s Black Panther is now $201.7 million for the three-day, $235.0 for the four-day. That would be the 3rd-highest four-day opening of all time behind only two Star Wars films: The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. (It’s also the 5th-highest four-day opening ever when adjusted for inflation.)

That’s a substantial increase from the $192.0 million / $218.0 million box office projected just the day before. Estimates keep going up and up, and it’s still possible the film could exceed its current estimates when weekend actuals are announced on Tuesday.

Sunday Update:

Black Panther continued to race past industry expectations with an estimated $192 million over the three-day weekend including Thursday night previews, making it by far the largest February opening ever (surpassing Deadpool‘s $132 million by a wide margin) and the fifth-highest 3-day opening in history after Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jurassic World, and The Avengers. Over the four-day period, it’s now estimated to come in at the high end of expectations with $218 million, a truly monumental number for the unprecedented blockbuster.

Looking at the big picture, Black Panther stacks up impressively in a number of ways. Its Saturday gross ($65.8 million) is the 4th largest in history and 2nd largest in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), while its Sunday gross ($50.3 million) will be the fifth-highest all time if estimates hold. Demographically, the film skewed slightly male at 55% to 45%, while 61% of the audience was over the age of 25. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 97% – making it the best-reviewed superhero movie ever on the influential review aggregator – while its CinemaScore is a rare A+, which bodes well for its holding power in the coming weeks.

The weekend’s two other new wide releases opened decidedly soft in the face of the Panther behemoth. Aardman’s stop-motion animated Early Man grossed an estimated $3.1 million through Sunday and $4.1 million through Monday, while Biblical actioner Samson is looking at an estimated $1.9 million over the three-day period and $2.3 million over the four-day. Riding on a tidal wave of hype, The Black Panther‘s allure was simply too strong for either film to carve out significant audiences of their own.

Last weekend’s No. 1 Fifty Shades Freed, meanwhile, took in an estimated $16.9 million over the three-day period ($18.9 million four-day), a drop of around 56% from its $38.5 million opening. That would bring its total to $78.1 million through Monday, about 12% off from Fifty Shades Darker at the same point. At this pace, Freed will easily cross the $100 million mark domestically by the end of its run.

Peter Rabbit held up well in its sophomore weekend, grossing an estimated $17.2 million over the three-day frame (off just 31%) and $22.1 million over four days. If estimates hold, it will have a total of $50.3 million through Monday – not bad given its reported budget of $50 million. It didn’t hurt that Early Man – its main competition in the family marketplace – failed to register with moviegoers.

The unstoppable Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle logged its ninth Top 5 finish with an estimated $7.9 million through Sunday and $10 million through Monday, bringing its total to a massive $379.9 million. The film has now officially surpassed Spider-Man 2 as the second highest-grossing Sony release of all time domestically (not adjusted for inflation), and it has the original Spider-Man ($403 million) firmly in its sights.

Among other holdovers, last weekend’s The 15:17 to Paris is looking at an estimated $7.6 million through Sunday and around $9 million through Monday, which would bring its cume to $26.8 million; The Greatest Showman made an estimated $5.1 million Friday-Sunday (a mere 21% drop) and $6.3 million Friday-Monday for a total of $155.6 million; Maze Runner: The Death Cure had an estimated $2.5 million Friday-Sunday and $3 million over the four-day period ($54.5 million); horror flick Winchester is estimated for $2.2 million (3-day) and $2.6 million (4-day) and a $22.3 million total; and The Post rounds out the Top 10 with an $1.9/$2.4 and a $77 million estimated total through Monday.

Check back here on Tuesday for the final box office weekend actuals.

Overseas Update:

The Black Panther is also a giant hit internationally with $169 million in its opening weekend overseas, with the film breaking records in the majority of markets. That makes it No. 15 on the list of all-time international openings  though it has yet to open in key markets including China, Russia, and Japan. Highlights this weekend include a $25.3 million opening in Korea, $24.8 million in the UK, and $9.6 million in Mexico. Its global cume now stands at $361 million over the three-day period, and $387 million including Monday’s domestic estimate.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle took in another $4.8 million overseas, pushing it past the $900 million mark worldwide. Among Sony releases, its global total is now second only to Skyfall (which will keep its crown with $1.1 billion).

Fifty Shades Freed brought in another $47.7 million internationally, bringing its global total to a whopping $268.9 million. As noted last weekend, these films always make about two-thirds of their money overseas and Freed is continuing the trend.

Tuesday’s 4-Day Weekend Actuals for Friday, February 16 – Monday, February 19, 2018:

WIDE (1000+)
# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $242,155,680 — 4,020 — $60,238 $242,155,680 1 Disney
2 Peter Rabbit $23,382,931 -7% 3,725 0 $6,277 $54,355,473 2 Sony / Columbia
3 Fifty Shades Freed $19,439,120 -50% 3,768 0 $5,159 $78,630,575 2 Universal
4 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $10,014,906 0% 2,800 -336 $3,577 $379,693,471 9 Sony / Columbia
5 The 15:17 to Paris $8,923,106 -29% 3,042 0 $2,933 $26,670,823 2 Warner Bros.
6 The Greatest Showman $6,527,597 1% 1,936 -437 $3,372 $155,905,953 9 Fox
7 Early Man $4,260,148 — 2,494 — $1,708 $4,260,148 1 Lionsgate
8 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $3,243,854 -48% 1,892 -1031 $1,715 $54,723,980 4 Fox
9 Winchester $2,619,156 -50% 1,479 -1001 $1,771 $22,249,335 3 Lionsgate / CBS Films
10 The Post $2,437,992 -33% 1,050 -815 $2,322 $77,047,364 9 20th Century Fox
11 Samson $2,255,864 — 1,249 — $1,806 $2,255,864 1 Pure Flix

LIMITED (100 — 999)
# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Shape of Water $2,055,052 -35% 957 -823 $2,147 $53,633,766 12 Fox Searchlight
2 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $1,895,019 -18% 780 -493 $2,430 $48,364,525 19 Fox Searchlight
3 Darkest Hour $1,153,160 -28% 602 -443 $1,916 $53,394,852 13 Focus Features
4 I, Tonya $1,120,319 -33% 502 -586 $2,232 $27,224,438 11 Neon
5 Den of Thieves $1,116,790 -63% 730 -738 $1,530 $43,618,720 5 STX Entertainment
6 12 Strong $1,108,467 -60% 815 -1086 $1,360 $44,256,673 5 Warner Bros.
7 Hostiles $1,004,135 -64% 767 -1447 $1,309 $28,480,961 9 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
8 Coco $908,454 3% 385 -448 $2,360 $207,389,121 13 Disney
9 Phantom Thread $891,565 -26% 355 -203 $2,511 $17,888,189 8 Focus Features
10 Detective Chinatown 2 $872,097 — 115 — $7,583 $872,097 1 Warner Bros.
11 2018 Oscar Nominated Short Films $829,008 19% 270 72 $3,070 $1,895,840 2 Magnolia Pictures
12 Lady Bird $776,982 -14% 407 -244 $1,909 $46,423,147 16 A24
13 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $776,562 -44% 351 -479 $2,212 $618,199,339 10 Disney
14 Call Me by Your Name $645,227 -4% 332 -143 $1,943 $15,014,887 13 Sony Pictures Classics
15 La Boda de Valentina $613,689 -46% 331 0 $1,854 $2,154,783 2 Lionsgate / Pantelion
16 Paddington 2 $606,113 -53% 393 -1036 $1,542 $39,481,171 6 Warner Bros.
17 Forever My Girl $496,357 -60% 401 -687 $1,238 $15,753,024 5 Roadside Attractions/LD Entertainment
18 Pad Man $416,419 -44% 152 0 $2,740 $1,412,229 2 Sony Pictures Releasing International
19 Ferdinand $404,946 5% 251 -136 $1,613 $82,491,343 10 Fox
20 Wonder (2017) $257,749 -8% 193 -68 $1,335 $131,719,643 14 Lionsgate
21 Molly’s Game $245,101 -46% 170 -367 $1,442 $28,399,253 8 STX Entertainment
22 Thor: Ragnarok $234,611 4% 149 -24 $1,575 $314,632,735 16 Disney
23 Insidious: The Last Key $171,750 -71% 169 -376 $1,016 $67,219,225 7 Universal
24 Pitch Perfect 3 $164,945 -36% 157 -160 $1,051 $104,656,490 9 Universal
25 Justice League $160,063 -6% 144 -44 $1,112 $228,776,535 14 Warner Bros.
26 Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool $141,423 148% 107 68 $1,322 $564,877 8 Sony Pictures Classics
27 The Commuter $134,389 -77% 148 -442 $908 $35,960,887 6 Lionsgate
28 The Female Brain $7,934 15% 266 264 $30 $17,349 2 IFC Films

PLATFORM (1 — 99)
# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Monster Hunt 2 $407,185 — 69 — $5,901 $407,185 1 Lionsgate
2 The Monkey King 3 $116,352 — 34 — $3,422 $116,352 1 Well Go USA Entertainment
3 A Fantastic Woman $116,006 6% 29 9 $4,000 $390,207 3 Sony Pictures Classics
4 The Insult $107,367 -3% 43 -7 $2,497 $646,497 6 Cohen Media Group
5 Double Lover $76,947 — 50 — $1,539 $95,987 1 Cohen Media Group
6 All the Money in the World $47,086 -20% 37 -26 $1,273 $24,965,660 8 Sony / TriStar
7 Proud Mary $46,946 -79% 62 -149 $757 $20,776,206 6 Sony / Screen Gems
8 The Party $44,875 — 3 — $14,958 $44,875 1 Roadside Attractions
9 Detective K: Secret of the Living Dead $40,428 — 9 — $4,492 $40,428 1 Well Go USA Entertainment
10 Loveless $38,184 — 3 — $12,728 $55,225 1 Sony Pictures Classics
11 Murder on the Orient Express (2017) $33,549 -32% 51 -43 $658 $102,789,656 15 Fox
12 1945 $32,556 6977% 7 6 $4,651 $312,108 16 Menemsha Films
13 The Florida Project $26,611 -13% 23 -9 $1,157 $5,835,165 20 A24
14 Nostalgia $17,282 — 3 — $5,761 $17,282 1 Bleecker Street
15 The Disaster Artist $17,188 -40% 23 -8 $747 $21,097,794 12 New Line / A24
16 Faces Places $13,845 -36% 13 -1 $1,065 $840,343 20 Cohen Media Group
17 Happy End $12,550 -19% 16 -4 $784 $265,404 9 Sony Pictures Classics
18 In The Fade $11,485 -50% 20 -6 $574 $271,345 8 Magnolia Pictures
19 Golden Exits $10,913 -7% 11 10 $992 $28,192 2 Vertical Entertainment
20 The Square $10,840 -6% 9 -2 $1,204 $1,462,373 17 Magnolia Pictures
21 Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story $10,205 85% 4 0 $2,551 $284,501 13 Zeitgeist
22 Bilal: A New Breed of Hero $10,186 -86% 16 -74 $637 $486,835 3 Vertical Entertainment
23 Western $8,534 — 1 — $8,534 $8,534 1 Cinema Guild
24 The Boy Downstairs $7,470 — 1 — $7,470 $7,470 1 FilmRise
25 Have A Nice Day $7,460 27% 8 4 $933 $52,567 4 Strand Releasing
26 Mary and The Witch’s Flower $7,414 -65% 3 -12 $2,471 $1,952,854 5 GKIDS
27 Tehran Taboo $6,189 — 1 — $6,189 $17,233 1 Kino Lorber
28 Mind Game $5,609 — 7 — $801 $5,609 1 GKIDS
29 The Breadwinner $5,340 -34% 16 6 $334 $299,275 14 GKIDS
30 Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds $4,101 -75% 3 0 $1,367 $1,905,361 9 Well Go USA
31 In Between $3,996 87% 4 1 $999 $59,234 7 Film Movement
32 The Final Year $3,529 90% 8 5 $441 $187,360 5 Magnolia Pictures
33 Jane $3,178 47% 3 0 $1,059 $1,694,407 18 Abramorama
34 Beuys $2,195 8% 2 1 $1,098 $48,272 5 Kino Lorber
35 Birdboy: The Forgotten Children $2,055 — 2 — $1,028 $38,422 10 GKIDS
36 24 Frames $1,835 -56% 1 -1 $1,835 $24,605 3 Janus Films
37 Till the End of the World $972 -95% 1 -11 $972 $118,352 3 China Lion Film
38 Tom of Finland $888 -49% 1 -1 $888 $361,720 19 Kino Lorber
39 Roman J. Israel, Esq. $833 -62% 3 -3 $278 $11,962,712 14 Sony Pictures
40 Please Stand By $826 101% 1 0 $826 $9,425 4 Magnolia Pictures
41 The Sacrifice (2017 re-release) $527 — 1 — $527 $52,889 18 Kino Lorber
42 BPM (Beats Per Minute) $243 -55% 2 0 $122 $111,713 18 The Orchard
43 The Divine Order $77 — 1 — $77 $71,822 17 Kino Lorber / Zeitgeist Films
44 Thelma $75 23% 1 0 $75 $146,202 15 The Orchard
45 Ichi The Killer: Definitive Remastered Edition $73 — 1 — $73 $9,286 15 Well Go USA Entertainment

Sunday’s 4-Day Weekend Estimates for Friday, February 16 – Monday, February 19, 2018:

[Note: most projections are from the studios themselves, otherwise they’re from Boxoffice Pro]

WIDE (1000+)
# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $209,000,000 — 4,020 — $51,990 $209,000,000 1 Disney
2 Peter Rabbit $22,000,000 -12% 3,725 0 $5,906 $52,972,542 2 Sony / Columbia
3 Fifty Shades Freed $19,100,000 -50% 3,768 0 $5,069 $78,291,455 2 Universal
4 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $10,500,000 5% 2,800 -336 $3,750 $380,178,565 9 Sony / Columbia
5 The 15:17 to Paris $9,500,000 -24% 3,042 0 $3,123 $27,247,717 2 Warner Bros.
6 The Greatest Showman $7,000,000 9% 1,936 -437 $3,616 $156,378,356 9 Fox
7 Early Man $4,000,000 — 2,494 — $1,604 $4,000,000 1 Lionsgate
8 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $3,250,000 -48% 1,892 -1031 $1,718 $54,730,126 4 Fox
9 Winchester $2,500,000 -52% 1,479 -1001 $1,690 $22,130,179 3 Lionsgate / CBS Films
10 The Post $2,475,000 -32% 1,050 -815 $2,357 $77,084,372 9 20th Century Fox
11 Samson $2,200,000 — 1,249 — $1,761 $2,200,000 1 Pure Flix

LIMITED (100 — 999)
# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Shape of Water $2,115,000 -33% 957 -823 $2,210 $53,693,714 12 Fox Searchlight
2 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $1,935,000 -16% 780 -493 $2,481 $48,404,506 19 Fox Searchlight
3 12 Strong $1,200,000 -56% 815 -1086 $1,472 $44,348,206 5 Warner Bros.
4 Hostiles $1,000,000 -65% 767 -1447 $1,304 $28,476,826 9 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
5 Coco $1,000,000 13% 385 -448 $2,597 $207,480,667 13 Disney
6 Detective Chinatown 2 $780,000 — 115 — $6,783 $780,000 1 Warner Bros.
7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $755,000 -46% 351 -479 $2,151 $618,177,777 10 Disney
8 La Boda de Valentina $550,000 -52% 331 0 $1,662 $2,091,094 2 Lionsgate / Pantelion
9 Wonder (2017) $290,000 4% 193 -68 $1,503 $131,751,894 14 Lionsgate
10 Thor: Ragnarok $245,000 9% 149 -24 $1,644 $314,643,124 16 Disney
11 The Commuter $155,000 -73% 148 -442 $1,047 $35,981,498 6 Lionsgate
12 Pad Man $40,000 -95% 152 0 $263 $1,035,810 2 Sony Pictures Releasing International

PLATFORM (1 — 99)
# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Let There Be Light $7,500 — 15 — $500 $7,500 17 Atlas

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