Early Weekend Estimates: THE FLASH Trending Lower at $55M+ Debut as ELEMENTAL Eyes $30M+

Photo Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures/™ & © DC Comics

Saturday Report: Warner Bros. is updating this morning with a full opening day estimate of $24.5 million for The Flash, including Friday and all previews from Monday and Thursday.

That figure falls shy of Black Adam‘s $26.7 million full first day gross last fall, despite Flash‘s inclusion of multiple preview grosses and the benefit of summer when kids are out of school.

Though Father’s Day remains a consideration for projections, these results indicate growing likelihood to miss the low end of final forecasts that called for at least $60 million over the weekend. Those bearish ranges were already considerably down from where the film had been tracking at more bullish levels throughout the spring.

The film’s audience score sits at 85 percent on Rotten Tomatoes as of Saturday morning. The studio has not provided an early projection, but we’re estimating a $58 million three-day frame on the domestic front for The Flash.

Meanwhile, Disney and Pixar’s Elemental opened to $11.8 million on Friday, including $2.4 million from previews. That’s 24 percent off Lightyear‘s $15.5 million first day on the same weekend last summer. The film’s audience score sits at 91 percent this morning, with 75 percent of critics giving it a fresh rating.

We’re currently estimating $32 million for Elemental‘s opening frame, in line with final forecasts.

Remaining openers include The Blackening, which bowed to $2.55 million with previews included. This weekend should register over $6 million for the three-day portion leading into Juneteenth on Monday.

On the specialty front, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City pulled $350,000 from six locations in Los Angeles and New York. Focus Features projects a weekend of $720,000.

Among key holdovers, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse added $8.125 million yesterday as Sony projects a third frame of $30 million.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts took in $5.25 million to begin its second frame and has a shot at over $20 million this weekend.

Rounding out the top five, The Little Mermaid earned another $3.7 million yesterday. A weekend north of $13 million looks likely at this stage, though double feature plays with Elemental could skew projections.

Friday Update: Reports from Warner Bros. have this weekend’s The Flash zipping to $9.7 million from domestic previews, including Monday’s “Fan First” Imax screenings and traditional Thursday previews.

The studio has not officially detailed what portion of that gross came from Thursday alone, though it is safely assumed to be the lion’s share.

Among comparable films, here’s how that early result stands up:

  • 28 percent ahead of Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($7.6 million from all previews)
  • 44 percent behind Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ($17.35 million from Thursday)
  • 29 percent ahead of Fast X ($7.5 million from Thursday)
  • 45 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($17.5 million from all previews)
  • 28 percent ahead of Black Adam ($7.6 million from Thursday)
  • 45 percent behind The Batman ($17.6 million from all previews)
  • 25 percent behind Justice League ($13 million from Thursday)

For the weekend, Father’s Day Sunday continues to be a factor worth watching as some backloading to offset the typical frontloaded nature of comic book movies is possible.

Critics’ reviews have been mixed at 67 percent approval on Rotten Tomatoes, while the site’s audience score stands at 87 percent approval as of Friday morning.

Overall, The Flash‘s preview grosses position the film far from prior long range expectations and are more in line with final forecasts projecting an opening weekend over $60 million.

Photo Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures/™ & © DC Comics