Early Weekend Estimate: Eternals w/ Disney’s Best Theatrically Exclusive First Day Gross Since December ’19, Eyes $70M+ Domestic Launch

Photo Credits: Marvel Studios & Disney ("Eternals")

Saturday Evening: Early projections for Saturday business are trending on the conservative side for Eternals. Early estimates have been adjusted accordingly, now leaning toward $70 million-plus for the weekend.

Saturday Morning: Disney reports this Saturday morning that Marvel Studios’ Eternals earned $30.7 million on opening day domestically Friday, inclusive of Thursday evening’s $9.5 million previews. The film appears headed toward a domestic opening over $75 million this weekend, with potential to sneak past Black Widow‘s $80 million.

Those figures aren’t far from two of the franchise’s past November openers: 2013’s Thor: The Dark World ($31.9 million) and 2016’s Doctor Strange ($32.6 million). Thor: Ragnarok also bowed in November 2017 to the tune of $46.5 million on opening day, a figure that was never expected for Eternals even during more optimistic tracking days.

Among pandemic era releases, this figure registers as the 2nd highest in the domestic market, trailing only Black Widow ($39.5 million) and Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($37.4 million). It’s also Disney’s highest opening day gross for a theatrically exclusively release since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in December 2019, slightly surpassing Shang-Chi‘s $29.5 million back in September.

The fall and pre-holiday timeframe could benefit weekend business and mitigate severe front-loading, but word of mouth will play a factor. The film has scored a 48 percent mark from critics and 84 percent from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes as of Saturday morning. Friday’s proper performance was in line with the post-Thursday share of first-day business by Ragnarok, but slightly behind those of Doctor Strange and, more noticeably so, that of Dark World.

Internationally, Disney updated the film’s running international total at $38.4 million through Friday. That brings the global tally to $69.1 million with North America’s figures rolled in. Overseas, Korea ($6.2 million) and France ($3.8 million) lead the way with 44 other territories in play, largely trending ahead of Shang-Chi (up 87 percent) and Black Widow (up 7 percent) in like-for-like markets.

For more on what factors are in play for this weekend’s domestic performance, check out our previous forecast and analysis from earlier in the week. Complete global studio estimates and final results will be reported on Sunday and Monday.

Territories

GBO

   

Korea

$6.2M

France

$3.8M

Mexico

$2.4M

UK

$2.3M

Australia

$2.1M

Germany

$2.0M

Italy

$2.0M

Taiwan

$1.7M

Brazil

$1.6M

Hong Kong

$1.6M

Other

$12.7M

Total

$38.4M

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