This week’s preliminary forecasts take a look at April’s final weekend with the addition of two counter-programming films.
Those and other updates are below.
PROS:
- Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. should appeal strongly to multiple generations of Judy Blume’s iconic novel, particularly young and adult women. The film faces very little direct competition until Memorial Day weekend’s The Little Mermaid, while early tracking and social buzz is comparable to last year’s Where the Crawdads Sing.
- Big George Foreman will aim to counter the female-driven adaptation with a play toward men over 35. Boxing films are clearly still in vogue given the recent success of Creed III, and the additional catering to faith-based audiences here adds notable potential.
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie continues to soar in pre-release models with pre-sales reaffirming earlier bullish forecasts. A five-day bow north of $100 million looks increasingly probable as the industry awaits first reviews of the film.
CONS:
- The final weekend of April isn’t typically known for breakout debuts, in large part because the following frame historically sees a major tentpole overshadowing moviegoer mindsets.
In this case, that’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 on May 5, though it’s likely to impact Foreman more than Margaret. The former of the duo is currently pacing just ahead of I Wanna Dance with Somebody in long range modeling. Margaret itself will need strong audience reception for legs to build off some likely front-loading.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/31/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 4/5/2023 | Air | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | +11% | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $27,000,000 – $46,000,000 | +13% | Amazon Studios |
| 4/5/2023 | On a Wing and a Prayer | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 4/5/2023 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie | $73,000,000 – $105,000,000 | +6% | $102,000,000 – $151,000,000 | $319,000,000 – $453,000,000 | +8% | Universal Pictures |
| 4/7/2023 | Paint | IFC Films | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Mafia Mamma | Bleecker Street | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Nefarious | Soli Deo Gloria Releasing | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | The Pope’s Exorcist | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 – $24,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Screen Gems | |||
| 4/14/2023 | Renfield | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $55,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 4/14/2023 | Suzume | Crunchyroll / Sony | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Sweetwater | Briarcliff Entertainment | |||||
| 4/21/2023 | Beau Is Afraid | A24 | |||||
| 4/21/2023 | Chevalier | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 4/21/2023 | The Covenant | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $27,000,000 | MGM & STX Films | |||
| 4/21/2023 | Evil Dead Rise | $21,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $42,000,000 – $67,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 4/28/2023 | Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $54,000,000 – $86,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 4/28/2023 | Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $28,000,000 – $50,000,000 | Sony / AFFIRM Films | |||
| 4/28/2023 | Polite Society | Focus Features | |||||
| 4/28/2023 | Sisu | Lionsgate |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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