This week’s report takes a look at box office prospects for Haunted Mansion, Disney’s next IP reimagining slated for release in late July.
The latest tracking updates for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Barbie, Oppenheimer, and other upcoming releases are featured in the chart below.
Walt Disney Pictures
July 28, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $22M-$37M
Domestic Total Range: $73M-$131M
- Based on the classic theme park attraction at Walt Disney World, Haunted Mansion will have built-in awareness among families that could prove advantageous. Disney’s prior adaptation, The Haunted Mansion with Eddie Murphy, posted $75.9 million in its 2003 domestic run.
- A strong ensemble cast and comedic approach are drivers in positive early buzz, with trailers generating healthy online sentiment.
- Pre-sales have only begun and will not truly pop until closer to release, but worth nothing is that’s its first day of activity lagged only 11 percent behind Jungle Cruise‘s first day of sales in sample markets.
- Minimal direct competition leading into release could elevate demand among family moviegoers.
- Disney has struggled to recover its full share of the pre-pandemic theatrical audience, due in large part to the company’s brief-but-impactful focus on streaming launches for family titles during the height of Covid-19.
- If Barbie manages to take off with women and families beyond its strongly hyped opening weekend, that may put a ceiling on Haunted Mansion‘s ability to soar. The male-driven Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem will also be a factor when it opens one week later on August 2.
- Given the dearth of family-friendly titles on the theatrical slate this fall, the argument could be made that this film would be better positioned with a release in September or October when it could benefit from proximity to Halloween.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/30/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|7/7/2023||Insidious: The Red Door||$20,000,000 – $29,000,000||$45,000,000 – $66,000,000||Sony Pictures / Screen Gems|
|7/7/2023||Joy Ride||$8,000,000 – $15,000,000||$30,000,000 – $60,000,000||Lionsgate|
|7/12/2023||Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One||$65,000,000 – $75,000,000||-3%||$250,000,000 – $301,000,000||-3%||Paramount Pictures|
|7/14/2023||PSYCHO-PASS: Providence (Limited)||Sony / Crunchyroll|
|7/14/2023||Theater Camp (Limited)||Disney / Searchlight Pictures|
|7/21/2023||Barbie||$65,000,000 – $90,000,000||+6%||$160,000,000 – $240,000,000||+17%||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|7/21/2023||Oppenheimer||$45,000,000 – $57,000,000||+11%||$154,000,000 – $194,000,000||+11%||Universal Pictures|
|7/28/2023||The First Slam Dunk||GKIDS|
|7/28/2023||Haunted Mansion||$22,000,000 – $37,000,000||$73,000,000 – $131,000,000||Walt Disney Pictures|
|7/28/2023||Talk to Me||A24|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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