Long Range Box Office Forecast: Disney’s HAUNTED MANSION; Tracking Updates for MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE, BARBIE, and OPPENHEIMER

Photo by Jalen Marlowe. © 2023 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

This week’s report takes a look at box office prospects for Haunted Mansion, Disney’s next IP reimagining slated for release in late July.

The latest tracking updates for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Barbie, Oppenheimer, and other upcoming releases are featured in the chart below.

Haunted Mansion

Walt Disney Pictures

July 28, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $22M-$37M

Domestic Total Range: $73M-$131M

PROS:

  • Based on the classic theme park attraction at Walt Disney World, Haunted Mansion will have built-in awareness among families that could prove advantageous. Disney’s prior adaptation, The Haunted Mansion with Eddie Murphy, posted $75.9 million in its 2003 domestic run.
  • A strong ensemble cast and comedic approach are drivers in positive early buzz, with trailers generating healthy online sentiment.
  • Pre-sales have only begun and will not truly pop until closer to release, but worth nothing is that’s its first day of activity lagged only 11 percent behind Jungle Cruise‘s first day of sales in sample markets.
  • Minimal direct competition leading into release could elevate demand among family moviegoers.

CONS:

  • Disney has struggled to recover its full share of the pre-pandemic theatrical audience, due in large part to the company’s brief-but-impactful focus on streaming launches for family titles during the height of Covid-19.
  • If Barbie manages to take off with women and families beyond its strongly hyped opening weekend, that may put a ceiling on Haunted Mansion‘s ability to soar. The male-driven Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem will also be a factor when it opens one week later on August 2.
  • Given the dearth of family-friendly titles on the theatrical slate this fall, the argument could be made that this film would be better positioned with a release in September or October when it could benefit from proximity to Halloween.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/30/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
7/7/2023 Insidious: The Red Door $20,000,000 – $29,000,000   $45,000,000 – $66,000,000   Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
7/7/2023 Joy Ride $8,000,000 – $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $60,000,000   Lionsgate
7/12/2023 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One $65,000,000 – $75,000,000 -3% $250,000,000 – $301,000,000 -3% Paramount Pictures
7/14/2023 PSYCHO-PASS: Providence (Limited)         Sony / Crunchyroll
7/14/2023 Theater Camp (Limited)         Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/21/2023 Barbie $65,000,000 – $90,000,000 +6% $160,000,000 – $240,000,000 +17% Warner Bros. Pictures
7/21/2023 Oppenheimer $45,000,000 – $57,000,000 +11% $154,000,000 – $194,000,000 +11% Universal Pictures
7/28/2023 The First Slam Dunk         GKIDS
7/28/2023 Haunted Mansion $22,000,000 – $37,000,000   $73,000,000 – $131,000,000   Walt Disney Pictures
7/28/2023 Talk to Me         A24

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.

Photo by Jalen Marlowe. © 2023 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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