This week’s outlook focuses on the return of the Crawley family in Downton Abbey: A New Era, a sequel to one of 2019’s breakout performers.
Additional tracking updates are available in the chart below, including the latest (and climbing) targets for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.
Downton Abbey: A New Era
May 20, 2022
- The previous film smashed expectations as the widely acclaimed and popular television drama’s leap to the big screen scored over $31 million in its domestic debut frame with solid staying power that led to a $96.9 million finish (part of $237.9 million globally).
- Anticipation among fans looks high based on early trailer reception following a few pandemic-induced delays over the past year, and a release date in early summer should be advantageous for the target older audience ready to return to movie theaters.
- With minimal competition for women (74 percent of which comprised the first film’s debut) in the market prior to its release, A New Era is unrivaled for the age 35+ crowd and could be a healthy counter-programmer through Memorial Day weekend in its second frame.
To that end, it might also be one of the films that marks a turning point — or at least a standout — for older audiences and what they prioritize a theatrical viewing for during the waning days of the pandemic.
- A premium format presence is confirmed in Dolby Cinema, which should help boost fan interest.
- As always, tracking for movies targeted primarily to adult women remains the most volatile to model during the pandemic recovery era. Some natural diminished returns as a sequel are further compounded by that caution, as well as the evolution of older audience habits over the past few years.
- Universal is likely, though not confirmed, to make this sequel available on streaming after 17 days as it has with several films over the past year. The core older audience not feeling a need to rush out to cinemas could speculatively wait for that potential at-home rollout in early June.
- Early ticket pre-sales, while far from negative, are on par with Death on the Nile after its initial sales window. The major asterisk there, however, is that A New Era‘s pre-sale window is three weeks longer than Nile‘s was, so there is plenty of room for growth and improvement to be expected in the weeks ahead.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 4/21/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|4/29/2022||Memory||$1,500,000 – $5,000,000||$4,000,000 – $15,000,000||2,700||Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films|
|5/6/2022||Around the World in 80 Days||100||Viva Kids|
|5/6/2022||Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness||$190,000,000 – $210,000,000||+6%||$450,000,000 – $560,000,000||+11%||4,400||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|5/13/2022||Firestarter||$8,000,000 – $13,000,000||$18,000,000 – $33,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|5/20/2022||Downton Abbey: A New Era||$16,000,000 – $21,000,000||$45,000,000 – $65,000,000||Focus Features|
|5/27/2022||Bob’s Burgers||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|5/27/2022||Top Gun Maverick||Paramount Pictures|
|6/3/2022||Eiffel||Blue Fox Entertainment|
|6/3/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/10/2022||Jurassic World: Dominion||Universal Pictures|
|6/17/2022||Lightyear||Disney / Pixar|
|6/24/2022||The Black Phone||Universal Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Elvis||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Untitled Blumhouse Project||Universal Pictures|
|7/1/2022||Minions: The Rise of Gru||Universal Pictures|
|7/8/2022||Thor: Love and Thunder||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|7/15/2022||Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris||Focus Features|
|7/15/2022||Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank||Paramount Pictures|
|7/15/2022||Where the Crawdads Sing||Sony / 3000 Pictures|
|7/29/2022||Bullet Train||Sony Pictures|
|7/29/2022||DC League of Super-Pets||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Easter Sunday||Universal Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Secret Headquarters||Paramount Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/12/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Disney / Searchlight|
|8/26/2022||The Bride||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||Fear||Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)|
|8/26/2022||Samaritan||United Artists Releasing|
|9/2/2022||Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.||Focus Features|
|9/9/2022||Salem’s Lot||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/16/2022||Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.||Lionsgate|
|9/16/2022||The Woman King||Sony / TriStar Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Don’t Worry Darling||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Puss In Boots: The Last Wish||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|9/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 3||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|10/7/2022||Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|10/14/2022||Halloween Ends||Universal Pictures|
|10/14/2022||White Bird: A Wonder Story||Lionsgate|
|10/21/2022||The Banshees of Inisherin||Disney / Searchlight Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Black Adam||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Ticket to Paradise||Universal Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Untitled Paramount||Paramount Pictures|
|10/28/2022||The Devil’s Light||Lionsgate|
|10/28/2022||Devotion (Wide Expansion)||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|11/4/2022||Untitled David O. Russell||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|11/11/2022||Black Panther: Wakanda Forever||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|11/18/2022||The Menu||Disney / Searchlight Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/18/2022||She Said||Universal Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Thirteen Lives||MGM / United Artists Releasing|
|11/23/2022||The Fabelmans||Universal Pictures|
|11/23/2022||Strange World||Walt Disney Pictures|
|12/2/2022||Violent Night||Universal Pictures|
|12/9/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|12/16/2022||Shazam! Fury of the Gods||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|12/21/2022||Avatar 2||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/21/2022||I Wanna Dance With Somebody||Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures|
|12/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 6||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/25/2022||A Man Called Otto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|12/30/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
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