Long Range Box Office Forecast: Downton Abbey: A New Era‘s Early Outlook; Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Tracking Continues to Climb

Photo Credits: Focus Features ("Downton Abbey: A New Era")

This week’s outlook focuses on the return of the Crawley family in Downton Abbey: A New Era, a sequel to one of 2019’s breakout performers.

Additional tracking updates are available in the chart below, including the latest (and climbing) targets for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.

Downton Abbey: A New Era
Focus Features
May 20, 2022

PROS:

  • The previous film smashed expectations as the widely acclaimed and popular television drama’s leap to the big screen scored over $31 million in its domestic debut frame with solid staying power that led to a $96.9 million finish (part of $237.9 million globally).
  • Anticipation among fans looks high based on early trailer reception following a few pandemic-induced delays over the past year, and a release date in early summer should be advantageous for the target older audience ready to return to movie theaters.
  • With minimal competition for women (74 percent of which comprised the first film’s debut) in the market prior to its release, A New Era is unrivaled for the age 35+ crowd and could be a healthy counter-programmer through Memorial Day weekend in its second frame.

    To that end, it might also be one of the films that marks a turning point — or at least a standout — for older audiences and what they prioritize a theatrical viewing for during the waning days of the pandemic.
  • A premium format presence is confirmed in Dolby Cinema, which should help boost fan interest.

CONS:

  • As always, tracking for movies targeted primarily to adult women remains the most volatile to model during the pandemic recovery era. Some natural diminished returns as a sequel are further compounded by that caution, as well as the evolution of older audience habits over the past few years.
  • Universal is likely, though not confirmed, to make this sequel available on streaming after 17 days as it has with several films over the past year. The core older audience not feeling a need to rush out to cinemas could speculatively wait for that potential at-home rollout in early June.
  • Early ticket pre-sales, while far from negative, are on par with Death on the Nile after its initial sales window. The major asterisk there, however, is that A New Era‘s pre-sale window is three weeks longer than Nile‘s was, so there is plenty of room for growth and improvement to be expected in the weeks ahead.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 4/21/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/29/2022 Memory $1,500,000 – $5,000,000   $4,000,000 – $15,000,000   2,700 Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022 Around the World in 80 Days         100 Viva Kids
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $190,000,000 – $210,000,000 +6% $450,000,000 – $560,000,000 +11% 4,400 Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $18,000,000 – $33,000,000     Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era $16,000,000 – $21,000,000   $45,000,000 – $65,000,000     Focus Features
5/20/2022 Men           A24
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022 Watcher           IFC Films
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
7/15/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank           Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/29/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance           Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear           Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.           Focus Features
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
10/28/2022 Devotion (Wide Expansion)           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 The Menu           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives           MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Shazam! Fury of the Gods           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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