This week’s report takes a look at two new releases slated for the week after Independence Day, plus updated tracking for next week’s The Flash and other upcoming titles.
Insidious: The Red Door
Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
July 7, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$33M
Domestic Total Range: $56M-$76M
- Insidious: The Red Door is the only major franchise horror release of summer, which could prove advantageous given the genre’s recent box office strength. The series hit a box office low with 2015’s Insidious: Chapter 3, which rode a $22.7M opening to an eventual $52.2 domestic cume, then rebounded a bit with Insidious: The Last Key, which opened to $29.6 million in January 2018.
- The return of original cast members Patrick Wilson, Rose Byrne, Lin Shaye, and Ty Simpkins should entice fans of the series. The ensemble hasn’t appeared together in the franchise since 2013’s Insidious: Chapter 2.
- Though pre-sales have yet to begin, early social metrics are encouraging for the fifth chapter in the Insidious saga. Sentiment measurements and interest levels are currently peaking above Evil Dead Rise, which bowed to $24.5 million back in April.
- The horror genre is no stranger to the law of diminishing returns, as seen by the final two films of David Gordon Green’s recent Halloween trilogy.
- Competition could be a minor factor if late June holdovers (including Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and No Hard Feelings) draw strong word of mouth. Releasing the same weekend as Insidious: The Red Door is Joy Ride, which provides some direct crossover for young female audiences.
July 7, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $12M-$17M
Domestic Total Range: $40M-$64M
- Counter-programming potential could play a role for this young female-leaning road trip comedy, anchored by Ashley Park and Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Oscar-nominated Stephanie Hsu.
- Again, pre-sales have yet to begin and inform the late stage marketing impact, but early trailer reception and industry screenings have generated positive reactions that indicate some sleeper upside.
- Female-driven comedies can be hit or miss at the box office, running the gamut of major commercial victories like Girls Trip ($115.2 million domestic) to misfires such as Rough Night ($22.1 million). Without significant star power, word of mouth will be crucial.
- To that end, if June’s No Hard Feelings earns staying power, it could impact Joy Ride‘s attendance.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/9/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|6/16/2023||Asteroid City (Limited)||Focus Features|
|6/16/2023||The Blackening||$8,000,000 – $13,000,000||$20,000,000 – $43,000,000||Lionsgate|
|6/16/2023||Elemental||$31,000,000 – $41,000,000||$98,000,000 – $167,000,000||Disney / Pixar|
|6/16/2023||The Flash||$72,000,000 – $105,000,000||-20%||$176,000,000 – $282,000,000||-20%||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/23/2023||Asteroid City (Expansion)||Focus Features|
|6/23/2023||No Hard Feelings||$14,000,000 – $22,000,000||$50,000,000 – $76,000,000||Sony Pictures|
|6/23/2023||Past Lives (Wide Expansion)||A24|
|6/30/2023||Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny||$76,000,000 – $105,000,000||-17%||$211,000,000 – $359,000,000||-17%||Disney / Lucasfilm|
|6/30/2023||Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken||$13,000,000 – $18,000,000||$38,000,000 – $66,000,000||Universal / DreamWorks Animation|
|7/7/2023||Insidious: The Red Door||$25,000,000 – $33,000,000||$56,000,000 – $76,000,000||Sony Pictures / Screen Gems|
|7/7/2023||Joy Ride||$12,000,000 – $17,000,000||$40,000,000 – $64,000,000||Lionsgate|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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