Long Range Box Office Forecast: INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR and JOY RIDE

This week’s report takes a look at two new releases slated for the week after Independence Day, plus updated tracking for next week’s The Flash and other upcoming titles.

Insidious: The Red Door

Sony Pictures / Screen Gems

July 7, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$33M

Domestic Total Range: $56M-$76M


  • Insidious: The Red Door is the only major franchise horror release of summer, which could prove advantageous given the genre’s recent box office strength. The series hit a box office low with 2015’s Insidious: Chapter 3, which rode a $22.7M opening to an eventual $52.2 domestic cume, then rebounded a bit with Insidious: The Last Key, which opened to $29.6 million in January 2018.
  • The return of original cast members Patrick Wilson, Rose Byrne, Lin Shaye, and Ty Simpkins should entice fans of the series. The ensemble hasn’t appeared together in the franchise since 2013’s Insidious: Chapter 2.
  • Though pre-sales have yet to begin, early social metrics are encouraging for the fifth chapter in the Insidious saga. Sentiment measurements and interest levels are currently peaking above Evil Dead Rise, which bowed to $24.5 million back in April.


  • The horror genre is no stranger to the law of diminishing returns, as seen by the final two films of David Gordon Green’s recent Halloween trilogy.
  • Competition could be a minor factor if late June holdovers (including Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and No Hard Feelings) draw strong word of mouth. Releasing the same weekend as Insidious: The Red Door is Joy Ride, which provides some direct crossover for young female audiences.

Joy Ride


July 7, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $12M-$17M

Domestic Total Range: $40M-$64M


  • Counter-programming potential could play a role for this young female-leaning road trip comedy, anchored by Ashley Park and Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Oscar-nominated Stephanie Hsu.
  • Again, pre-sales have yet to begin and inform the late stage marketing impact, but early trailer reception and industry screenings have generated positive reactions that indicate some sleeper upside.


  • Female-driven comedies can be hit or miss at the box office, running the gamut of major commercial victories like Girls Trip ($115.2 million domestic) to misfires such as Rough Night ($22.1 million). Without significant star power, word of mouth will be crucial.
  • To that end, if June’s No Hard Feelings earns staying power, it could impact Joy Ride‘s attendance.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/9/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
6/16/2023 Asteroid City (Limited)         Focus Features
6/16/2023 The Blackening $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $20,000,000 – $43,000,000   Lionsgate
6/16/2023 Elemental $31,000,000 – $41,000,000   $98,000,000 – $167,000,000   Disney / Pixar
6/16/2023 The Flash $72,000,000 – $105,000,000 -20% $176,000,000 – $282,000,000 -20% Warner Bros. Pictures
6/23/2023 Asteroid City (Expansion)         Focus Features
6/23/2023 No Hard Feelings $14,000,000 – $22,000,000   $50,000,000 – $76,000,000   Sony Pictures
6/23/2023 Past Lives (Wide Expansion)         A24
6/30/2023 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $76,000,000 – $105,000,000 -17% $211,000,000 – $359,000,000 -17% Disney / Lucasfilm
6/30/2023 Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $13,000,000 – $18,000,000   $38,000,000 – $66,000,000   Universal / DreamWorks Animation
7/7/2023 Insidious: The Red Door $25,000,000 – $33,000,000   $56,000,000 – $76,000,000   Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
7/7/2023 Joy Ride $12,000,000 – $17,000,000   $40,000,000 – $64,000,000   Lionsgate

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.

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