This week’s report takes an early glance at the return of an iconic actor-director duo in one of the most high profile prestige releases of the fall.
Killers of the Flower Moon
Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios
October 20, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $27M-$36M
Domestic Total Range: $90M-$134M
PROS:
- Leonardo DiCaprio and director Martin Scorsese have a pristine track record of delivering critical and commercial winners over the past two decades, from 2002’s Gangs of New York to 2013’s The Wolf of Wall Street. Their five previous films have earned $557.7 million combined at the domestic box office.
- DiCaprio himself has arguably been the most bankable star of the last decade, with five of his seven films enjoying opening weekends of over $30 million in wide release. All but one of these films (J. Edgar) ultimately grossed more than $100 million throughout their domestic runs.
- As films like Oppenheimer, Air, The Woman King, and others have recently shown, the target adult audience for this film still has an appetite for ambitious, character-driven cinema. Early reviews from festivals and industry screenings are strong with a 97 percent Rotten Tomatoes score across 68 submissions so far.
- Preliminary social media metrics are encouraging for this type of film, perhaps thanks to having its exposure enhanced by frequent trailer runs in front of Oppenheimer during the past two months.
- The absence of direct competition on the schedule, paired with upcoming awards season campaigning, could further bolster long-term potential if audience reception is strong. The absence of new scripted series on television this fall could also pump up demand and motivate adult audiences to turn out.
CONS:
- The biggest variable in projecting this release is the unique nature of its production company, Apple Studios, which will stream the film on Apple+ at some undefined point after the exclusively theatrical wide release.
- Unless the ongoing WGA and SAG-AFTRA labor strikes are resolved within the next few weeks, the film won’t have traditional interview and media appearance promotional campaign, which have historically been helpful for adult-driven prestige films such as this.
- With Taylor Swift scooping up premium formats like Imax, those screens won’t be as widely available to Flower Moon as once expected.
- The film’s runtime of three hours and twenty-six minutes is worth keeping in mind. Even if audiences feel it’s well-paced, that element will still likely push demand more into weekend showings and create scheduling limitations for exhibitors.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/21/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 9/29/2023 | The Creator | $15,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $78,000,000 | 20th Century Studios | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Dumb Money (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||
| 9/29/2023 | The Kill Room | Shout! Factory | ||||
| 9/29/2023 | PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | +33% | $39,000,000 – $58,000,000 | +33% | Paramount Pictures |
| 9/29/2023 | Saw X | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | +9% | $22,000,000 – $35,000,000 | +9% | Lionsgate |
| 10/6/2023 | Dicks: The Musical (Limited) | A24 | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | The Exorcist: Believer | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | +14% | $48,000,000 – $79,000,000 | +2% | Universal Pictures |
| 10/6/2023 | Foe | $2,000,000 – $6,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $20,000,000 | Amazon Studios | ||
| 10/6/2023 | Cat Person | Rialto Pictures | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | Freeland | Freelance | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | Untitled Focus Features Film | Focus Features | ||||
| 10/13/2023 | Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | $105,000,000 – $165,000,000 | TBD | AMC Theatres / Variance Films | ||
| 10/20/2023 | Killers of the Flower Moon | $27,000,000 – $36,000,000 | $90,000,000 – $134,000,000 | Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios | ||
| 10/20/2023 | Soul Mates | Faith Media Distribution |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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