Long Range Box Office Forecast: Guy Ritchie’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre (Updated)

Photo Credits: STXfilms ("Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre")

Friday Evening Update: STXfilms announced late Friday that Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre has been removed from the release schedule and is now “unset.” All forecasts for the film previously listed in the chart below should be ignored at this time.

Original Report: This week’s report takes an early look at how director Guy Ritchie’s latest ensemble film is tracking in the weeks leading up to a planned March 18 release in domestic theaters.

That same weekend is also slated for the release of Focus Features’ The Outfit and Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy, but we are not currently providing forecasts on either.

Up-to-date forecast ranges for wide releases through mid-March are available in the chart below.

Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre
STXfilms
March 18

PROS:

  • Guy Ritchie’s fan base has proven consistent in recent years with the relatively successful runs of The Gentlemen and Wrath of Man, both of which returned to the filmmaker’s genre roots in many ways.

    The former bowed to $10.65 million in January 2020 before legging out to $36.5 million stateside, even with the pandemic cutting short the back end of its run. Wrath of Man, meanwhile, performed similarly with an $8.3 million / $27.5 million split last May just as major market theaters were reopening and vaccines were in the nascent weeks of wide distribution.
  • Male-driven thrillers have been workhorses during the pandemic recovery era for theater owners. The older portion of that demographic will be a focal point here, and the added comedic aspect should help it appeal to fans of The Gentlemen.
  • Although marketing has yet to fully hit its stride, its trailer release and early tracking are encouraging. A lack of direct competition, beyond opening two weeks later than The Batman, should also aid what is expected to be a theatrically exclusive run.

CONS:

  • The aforementioned proximity of The Batman shouldn’t be discounted entirely as that film will still be going strong in its third frame should reception and word of mouth deliver. The Lost City also opens one week later, which could moderately cut into the target audience here.
  • As a fairly niche genre project from Ritchie, and another modest budget to match, expectations should be moderated and focused beyond opening weekend performance.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/18/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/25/2022 Cyrano (Expansion) n/a   n/a   750 United Artists Releasing
2/25/2022 The Godfather (50 Years) n/a   n/a   156 Paramount Pictures
2/25/2022 Studio 666 n/a   n/a   n/a Open Road Films
3/4/2022 The Batman $135,000,000 – $175,000,000 -2% $340,000,000 – $490,000,000 -6% 4,300 Warner Bros. Pictures
  Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre removed from scheduled date   Removed from scheduled date     STXfilms
3/18/2022 The Outfit n/a   n/a     Focus Features
3/18/2022 The Unbreakable Boy n/a   n/a     Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/25/2022 The Lost City           Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor           Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius           Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Walt Disney Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2           Paramount Pictures
4/15/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022 Father Stu           Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman           Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent           Lionsgate
4/29/2022 65           Sony / Columbia Pictures
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness           Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter           Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 DC Super Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era           Focus Features
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/10/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/17/2022 Oh Hell No           Sony Pictures
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding           Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
7/22/2022 Blazing Samurai           Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance           Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)           Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
11/4/2022 The Flash           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees           Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives           MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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