This week’s tracking report caps off October with a look at Halloween weekend and a review of preceding releases for the month.
PROS:
- Lionsgate’s Prey for the Devil will make a run at horror fans over Halloween weekend with the holiday itself landing on Monday. This will be the third frame of Halloween Ends, so there might be some room for an audience after that franchise sequel will inevitably end up front-loaded.
CONS:
- Early tracking for Prey for the Devil is soft with a social media presence that’s comparable more to last year’s Antlers and Barbarian than Smile or The Black Phone, though there’s room for growth.
Despite the distance from Halloween Ends, the latter title will still have an audience to contend with over the titular holiday frame. Black Adam will likely still be pulling solid numbers in its second frame as well, so pre-release buzz for Prey will be important toward beating expectations.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/29/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 10/7/2022 | Amsterdam | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | +15% | $40,000,000 – $65,000,000 | +6% | 2,500 | Disney / 20th Century Studios |
| 10/7/2022 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile | $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $90,000,000 | 4,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 10/14/2022 | Halloween Ends | $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $84,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 10/21/2022 | The Banshees of Inisherin | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Black Adam | $55,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $135,000,000 – $175,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 10/21/2022 | Ticket to Paradise | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 10/21/2022 | Untitled Paramount | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 10/28/2022 | Prey for the Devil | $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $13,000,000 – $25,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 10/28/2022 | Tár (Nationwide Expansion; Limited on October 7) | Focus Features | |||||
| 10/28/2022 | Till (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 14) | MGM / UAR / Orion |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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