This week’s report takes a first look at the April 2022 release calendar for domestic theaters, currently set with Sony Pictures’ Morbius, in association with Marvel, kicking off the final month before summer movie season.
Paramount Pictures also has The Contractor slated for a hybrid release on the same weekend. Preliminary forecasts are below, although given the recent sale from STXfilms and an unconfirmed strategy as to how the film will be marketed — or how widely it may open in theaters alongside a streaming debut, those forecasts are particularly volatile.
April 1, 2022
- The Marvel association is arguably the film’s biggest selling point, particularly given the studio’s massive success developing two hit Venom films already. It was also marketed heavily in theaters with trailer attachments to Spider-Man: No Way Home.
- Morbius will be exclusive to theaters upon release, a strategy that Sony has employed with a strong winning streak during the pandemic recovery era thus far.
- Jared Leto provides a familiar star presence, which could aid interest from casual moviegoers and those outside of the fan base not familiar with the comic book character.
- Recent trailers have connected the film to the Marvel Cinematic Universe by way of featuring Michael Keaton — believed to be Adrian Toomes / Vulture from Spider-Man: Homecoming. If this film features in any broad connection to the non-Sony franchise universe, it might further boost appeal among MCU fans.
- March has very little high-profile content to offer outside of March 25’s The Lost City, and with The Batman entering its fifth weekend by the time of this movie’s release, there should be decent demand built up for the target male audience.
- Early social tracking has been leaning lukewarm, unfortunately, with each trailer release generating underwhelming sentiment amid tracked online chatter. Initial metrics are comparable to those of Uncharted.
- Unlike Venom, marketing thus far hasn’t pitched much of a comedic element for Morbius — something that ultimately played to the strengths of star Tom Hardy and drove broad interest in those films.
- Reviews will be critical for this release as its sandwiched between two far more prolific comic book films — March’s The Batman and May’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Moreover, April’s calendar is relatively packed with Ambulance and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (both on April 8), followed by Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (April 15) opening immediately after and gunning for premium screen space which Morbius will only have for one week.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/3/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|3/11/2022||(no wide releases scheduled)|
|3/18/2022||The Outfit||Focus Features|
|3/18/2022||Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie|
|3/18/2022||Umma||Sony / Stage 6 Films|
|3/25/2022||The Lost City||$15,000,000 – $25,000,000||$45,000,000 – $78,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|4/1/2022||The Contractor||$500,000 – $3,000,000||NEW||$1,000,000 – $7,000,000||NEW||Paramount Pictures|
|4/1/2022||Morbius||$40,000,000 – $60,000,000||NEW||$80,000,000 – $130,000,000||NEW||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|4/8/2022||Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2||Universal Pictures|
|4/8/2022||Sonic the Hedgehog 2||Paramount Pictures|
|4/13/2022||Father Stu||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|4/15/2022||Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|4/15/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|4/22/2022||The Bad Guys||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|4/22/2022||The Northman||Focus Features|
|4/22/2022||The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent||Lionsgate|
|4/29/2022||Memory||Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films|
|5/6/2022||Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|5/20/2022||DC Super Pets||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|5/20/2022||Downton Abbey: A New Era||Focus Features|
|5/27/2022||Bob’s Burgers||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|5/27/2022||Top Gun Maverick||Paramount Pictures|
|6/3/2022||Eiffel||Blue Fox Entertainment|
|6/3/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/10/2022||Jurassic World: Dominion||Universal Pictures|
|6/17/2022||Lightyear||Disney / Pixar|
|6/24/2022||The Black Phone||Universal Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Elvis||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Untitled Blumhouse Project||Universal Pictures|
|7/1/2022||Minions: The Rise of Gru||Universal Pictures|
|7/8/2022||Thor: Love and Thunder||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|7/15/2022||Bullet Train||Sony Pictures|
|7/15/2022||Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris||Focus Features|
|7/22/2022||Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank||Paramount Pictures|
|7/22/2022||Where the Crawdads Sing||Sony / 3000 Pictures|
|7/29/2022||Black Adam||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Easter Sunday||Universal Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Secret Headquarters||Paramount Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/12/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Disney / Searchlight|
|8/12/2022||Man from Toronto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||The Bride||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||Fear||Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)|
|8/26/2022||Samaritan||United Artists Releasing|
|9/2/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|9/9/2022||Salem’s Lot||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/16/2022||Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.||Lionsgate|
|9/16/2022||The Woman King||Sony / TriStar Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Don’t Worry Darling||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Puss In Boots: The Last Wish||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|9/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 3||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|10/7/2022||Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)||Sony Pictures|
|10/14/2022||Halloween Ends||Universal Pictures|
|10/14/2022||White Bird: A Wonder Story||Lionsgate|
|10/21/2022||The Banshees of Inisherin||Disney / Searchlight Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Ticket to Paradise||Universal Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Untitled Paramount||Paramount Pictures|
|10/28/2022||The Devil’s Light||Lionsgate|
|11/4/2022||The Flash||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/4/2022||Untitled Bee Gees||Paramount Pictures|
|11/4/2022||Untitled David O. Russell||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|11/11/2022||Black Panther: Wakanda Forever||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|11/18/2022||Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/18/2022||She Said||Universal Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Thirteen Lives||MGM / United Artists Releasing|
|11/23/2022||The Fabelmans||Universal Pictures|
|11/23/2022||Strange World||Walt Disney Pictures|
|12/2/2022||Violent Night||Universal Pictures|
|12/9/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|12/16/2022||Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|12/21/2022||Avatar 2||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/21/2022||I Wanna Dance With Somebody||Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures|
|12/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 6||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/25/2022||A Man Called Otto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|12/30/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
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