Long Range Box Office Forecast: Sony and Marvel’s Morbius

This week’s report takes a first look at the April 2022 release calendar for domestic theaters, currently set with Sony Pictures’ Morbius, in association with Marvel, kicking off the final month before summer movie season.

Paramount Pictures also has The Contractor slated for a hybrid release on the same weekend. Preliminary forecasts are below, although given the recent sale from STXfilms and an unconfirmed strategy as to how the film will be marketed — or how widely it may open in theaters alongside a streaming debut, those forecasts are particularly volatile.

Morbius
Sony Pictures
April 1, 2022

PROS:

• The Marvel association is arguably the film’s biggest selling point, particularly given the studio’s massive success developing two hit Venom films already. It was also marketed heavily in theaters with trailer attachments to Spider-Man: No Way Home.

• Morbius will be exclusive to theaters upon release, a strategy that Sony has employed with a strong winning streak during the pandemic recovery era thus far.

• Jared Leto provides a familiar star presence, which could aid interest from casual moviegoers and those outside of the fan base not familiar with the comic book character.

• Recent trailers have connected the film to the Marvel Cinematic Universe by way of featuring Michael Keaton — believed to be Adrian Toomes / Vulture from Spider-Man: Homecoming. If this film features in any broad connection to the non-Sony franchise universe, it might further boost appeal among MCU fans.

• March has very little high-profile content to offer outside of March 25’s The Lost City, and with The Batman entering its fifth weekend by the time of this movie’s release, there should be decent demand built up for the target male audience.

CONS:

• Early social tracking has been leaning lukewarm, unfortunately, with each trailer release generating underwhelming sentiment amid tracked online chatter. Initial metrics are comparable to those of Uncharted.

• Unlike Venom, marketing thus far hasn’t pitched much of a comedic element for Morbius — something that ultimately played to the strengths of star Tom Hardy and drove broad interest in those films.

• Reviews will be critical for this release as its sandwiched between two far more prolific comic book films — March’s The Batman and May’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Moreover, April’s calendar is relatively packed with Ambulance and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (both on April 8), followed by Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (April 15) opening immediately after and gunning for premium screen space which Morbius will only have for one week.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/3/22)