Long Range Box Office Forecast: Sony and Marvel’s Morbius

Photo Credits: Sony Pictures & Marvel ("Morbius")

This week’s report takes a first look at the April 2022 release calendar for domestic theaters, currently set with Sony Pictures’ Morbius, in association with Marvel, kicking off the final month before summer movie season.

Paramount Pictures also has The Contractor slated for a hybrid release on the same weekend. Preliminary forecasts are below, although given the recent sale from STXfilms and an unconfirmed strategy as to how the film will be marketed — or how widely it may open in theaters alongside a streaming debut, those forecasts are particularly volatile.

Morbius
Sony Pictures
April 1, 2022

PROS:

  • The Marvel association is arguably the film’s biggest selling point, particularly given the studio’s massive success developing two hit Venom films already. It was also marketed heavily in theaters with trailer attachments to Spider-Man: No Way Home.
  • Morbius will be exclusive to theaters upon release, a strategy that Sony has employed with a strong winning streak during the pandemic recovery era thus far.
  • Jared Leto provides a familiar star presence, which could aid interest from casual moviegoers and those outside of the fan base not familiar with the comic book character.
  • Recent trailers have connected the film to the Marvel Cinematic Universe by way of featuring Michael Keaton — believed to be Adrian Toomes / Vulture from Spider-Man: Homecoming. If this film features in any broad connection to the non-Sony franchise universe, it might further boost appeal among MCU fans.
  • March has very little high-profile content to offer outside of March 25’s The Lost City, and with The Batman entering its fifth weekend by the time of this movie’s release, there should be decent demand built up for the target male audience.

CONS:

  • Early social tracking has been leaning lukewarm, unfortunately, with each trailer release generating underwhelming sentiment amid tracked online chatter. Initial metrics are comparable to those of Uncharted.
  • Unlike Venom, marketing thus far hasn’t pitched much of a comedic element for Morbius — something that ultimately played to the strengths of star Tom Hardy and drove broad interest in those films.
  • Reviews will be critical for this release as its sandwiched between two far more prolific comic book films — March’s The Batman and May’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Moreover, April’s calendar is relatively packed with Ambulance and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (both on April 8), followed by Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (April 15) opening immediately after and gunning for premium screen space which Morbius will only have for one week.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/3/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/11/2022 (no wide releases scheduled)          
3/18/2022 The Outfit         Focus Features
3/18/2022 Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie          
3/18/2022 Umma         Sony / Stage 6 Films
3/18/2022 X         A24
3/25/2022 The Lost City $15,000,000 – $25,000,000   $45,000,000 – $78,000,000   Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor $500,000 – $3,000,000 NEW $1,000,000 – $7,000,000 NEW Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 – $130,000,000 NEW Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance         Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2         Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2         Paramount Pictures
4/13/2022 Father Stu         Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore         Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1         Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys         Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman         Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent         Lionsgate
4/29/2022 Memory         Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness         Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter         Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 DC Super Pets         Warner Bros. Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era         Focus Features
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers         Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick         Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel         Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2         Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022 Watcher         IFC Films
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion         Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear         Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone         Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis         Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project         Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding         Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru         Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder         Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest         STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train         Sony Pictures
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris         Focus Features
7/22/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank         Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope         Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing         Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 Black Adam         Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance         Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday         Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters         Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3         Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight         Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto         Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast         Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride         Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear         Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Samaritan         United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 (no releases scheduled)          
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot         Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.         Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant         Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King         Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling         Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish         Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3         Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros         Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)         Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends         Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story         Lionsgate
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin         Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise         Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount         Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light         Lionsgate
11/4/2022 The Flash         Warner Bros. Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees         Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell         Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever         Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile         Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4         Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said         Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives         MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III         MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans         Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World         Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night         Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)          
12/16/2022 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom         Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2         Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody         Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario         Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6         Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto         Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)          

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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