The penultimate frame of April comes into view this week as we take an early glance at the box office outlook for Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys, alongside Lionsgate’s The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent.
In addition, notable updates for Morbius and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 can be found in the chart below
Focus Features’ The Northman remains slated for an April 22 debut as well, however, we expect a potential change to its distribution plans given its minimal marketing thus far.
The Bad Guys
Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation
April 22, 2022
PROS:
- Animated films have been few and far between throughout the pandemic as studios have waited for family comfort levels to improve, and recent studies suggest those are on the rise as spring begins, COVID cases decline, and the pandemic shifts from front-of-mind even for any parents.
- Universal’s marketing arm combined with the name brand recognition of DreamWorks among families are strong assets for an original film. Pent-up demand should also be in this picture’s favor.
- With no major studio animated films opening again until Bob’s Burgers in late May and Disney / Pixar’s Lightyear in mid-June, there’s a long runway for this title, which is currently planned as exclusive to theaters upon release.
CONS:
- Opening two weeks after Sonic the Hedgehog 2 presents a major obstacle to overcome with families expected to prioritize that widely appealing (and, so far, well reviewed) sequel in its chase weekends.
- As an original film opening after a crowded corridor in April — and two weeks before Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness — capturing wide interest and/or premium screens will be challenging.
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Lionsgate
April 22, 2022
PROS:
- Internet buzz for this comedic, meta Nicolas Cage film has been brewing for well over year, and trailer reception is quite positive (as are critics’ reviews, which currently stand at 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes). The universe of tracking, social data, and trailer imprints are comparable to those of The Gentlemen before its release in early 2020, with potential room to grow.
- Adult males will be the bread-and-butter target for this film, which as has been noted ad nauseum, have been a reliable demographic throughout the pandemic box office recovery.
- Serving as counter-programming against the high-profile franchise films opening in April may serve as another selling point for adults.
CONS:
- It’s highly likely that this film plays to a niche audience, even with strong reception from critics and, potentially, moviegoers. It also tests what non-regular moviegoers will prioritize for a theatrical outing as consumer habits continue to evolve.
- Late April has often represented the box office “slow down” period leading up to the start of summer movie season (especially after a crowded spring), further compounding expectations that this is not made or being distributed with an ultra-wide commercial audience in mind.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/24/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 4/1/2022 | The Contractor | n/a | n/a | 450 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 4/1/2022 | Morbius | $40,000,000 – $50,000,000 | -16% | $85,000,000 – $110,000,000 | -16% | 4,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia |
| 4/8/2022 | Ambulance | $12,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 | 3,500 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 4/8/2022 | Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wide) | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | +9% | $12,000,000 – $26,000,000 | +13% | 2,900 | A24 |
| 4/8/2022 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | +8% | $125,000,000 – $170,000,000 | 4,300 | Paramount Pictures | |
| 4/13/2022 | Father Stu | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||
| 4/15/2022 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore | $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $140,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 4/22/2022 | The Bad Guys | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | NEW | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | NEW | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |
| 4/22/2022 | The Northman | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 4/22/2022 | The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | NEW | $16,000,000 – $36,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate | |
| 4/29/2022 | Memory | Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films | |||||
| 5/6/2022 | Around the World in 80 Days | Viva Kids | |||||
| 5/6/2022 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 5/13/2022 | Firestarter | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 5/20/2022 | Downton Abbey: A New Era | Focus Features | |||||
| 5/20/2022 | Men | A24 | |||||
| 5/27/2022 | Bob’s Burgers | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 5/27/2022 | Top Gun Maverick | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 6/3/2022 | Eiffel | Blue Fox Entertainment | |||||
| 6/3/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 6/3/2022 | Watcher | IFC Films | |||||
| 6/10/2022 | Jurassic World: Dominion | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/17/2022 | Lightyear | Disney / Pixar | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | The Black Phone | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | Elvis | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | Untitled Blumhouse Project | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/29/2022 | Shotgun Wedding | Lionsgate | |||||
| 7/1/2022 | Minions: The Rise of Gru | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 7/8/2022 | Thor: Love and Thunder | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Bed Rest | STXfilms | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris | Focus Features | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Where the Crawdads Sing | Sony / 3000 Pictures | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Nope | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 7/29/2022 | Bullet Train | Sony Pictures | |||||
| 7/29/2022 | DC League of Super-Pets | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 7/29/2022 | Venegance | Focus Features | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Secret Headquarters | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 8/12/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Disney / Searchlight | |||||
| 8/12/2022 | Man from Toronto | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 8/19/2022 | Beast | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | The Bride | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | Fear | Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG) | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | Samaritan | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 9/2/2022 | Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. | Focus Features | |||||
| 9/9/2022 | Salem’s Lot | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | Lionsgate | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | Distant | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | The Woman King | Sony / TriStar Pictures | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Don’t Worry Darling | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Puss In Boots: The Last Wish | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 3 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 9/30/2022 | Bros | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/7/2022 | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) | Sony Pictures | |||||
| 10/14/2022 | Halloween Ends | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/14/2022 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | Lionsgate | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | The Banshees of Inisherin | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Black Adam | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Ticket to Paradise | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Untitled Paramount | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 10/28/2022 | The Devil’s Light | Lionsgate | |||||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled Bee Gees | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled David O. Russell | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 11/11/2022 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Thirteen Lives | MGM / United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | Creed III | MGM | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | The Fabelmans | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | Strange World | Walt Disney Pictures | |||||
| 12/2/2022 | Violent Night | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 12/9/2022 | (no releases scheduled) | ||||||
| 12/16/2022 | Shazam! Fury of the Gods | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | Avatar 2 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | I Wanna Dance With Somebody | Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | Mario | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 12/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 6 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 12/25/2022 | A Man Called Otto | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 12/30/2022 | (no releases scheduled) |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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