Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Bad Guys and The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

Photo Credits: Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation ("The Bad Guys"); Lionsgate ("The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent")

The penultimate frame of April comes into view this week as we take an early glance at the box office outlook for Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys, alongside Lionsgate’s The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent.

In addition, notable updates for Morbius and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 can be found in the chart below

Focus Features’ The Northman remains slated for an April 22 debut as well, however, we expect a potential change to its distribution plans given its minimal marketing thus far.

The Bad Guys
Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation
April 22, 2022

PROS:

  • Animated films have been few and far between throughout the pandemic as studios have waited for family comfort levels to improve, and recent studies suggest those are on the rise as spring begins, COVID cases decline, and the pandemic shifts from front-of-mind even for any parents.
  • Universal’s marketing arm combined with the name brand recognition of DreamWorks among families are strong assets for an original film. Pent-up demand should also be in this picture’s favor.
  • With no major studio animated films opening again until Bob’s Burgers in late May and Disney / Pixar’s Lightyear in mid-June, there’s a long runway for this title, which is currently planned as exclusive to theaters upon release.

CONS:

  • Opening two weeks after Sonic the Hedgehog 2 presents a major obstacle to overcome with families expected to prioritize that widely appealing (and, so far, well reviewed) sequel in its chase weekends.
  • As an original film opening after a crowded corridor in April — and two weeks before Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness — capturing wide interest and/or premium screens will be challenging.

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Lionsgate
April 22, 2022

PROS:

  • Internet buzz for this comedic, meta Nicolas Cage film has been brewing for well over year, and trailer reception is quite positive (as are critics’ reviews, which currently stand at 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes). The universe of tracking, social data, and trailer imprints are comparable to those of The Gentlemen before its release in early 2020, with potential room to grow.
  • Adult males will be the bread-and-butter target for this film, which as has been noted ad nauseum, have been a reliable demographic throughout the pandemic box office recovery.
  • Serving as counter-programming against the high-profile franchise films opening in April may serve as another selling point for adults.

CONS:

  • It’s highly likely that this film plays to a niche audience, even with strong reception from critics and, potentially, moviegoers. It also tests what non-regular moviegoers will prioritize for a theatrical outing as consumer habits continue to evolve.
  • Late April has often represented the box office “slow down” period leading up to the start of summer movie season (especially after a crowded spring), further compounding expectations that this is not made or being distributed with an ultra-wide commercial audience in mind.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/24/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/1/2022 The Contractor n/a   n/a   450 Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius $40,000,000 – $50,000,000 -16% $85,000,000 – $110,000,000 -16% 4,000 Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance $12,000,000 – $18,000,000   $35,000,000 – $55,000,000   3,500 Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wide) $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 +9% $12,000,000 – $26,000,000 +13% 2,900 A24
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 +8% $125,000,000 – $170,000,000   4,300 Paramount Pictures
4/13/2022 Father Stu $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $15,000,000 – $35,000,000     Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore $40,000,000 – $55,000,000   $100,000,000 – $140,000,000     Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 NEW   Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman n/a   n/a     Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 NEW $16,000,000 – $36,000,000 NEW   Lionsgate
4/29/2022 Memory           Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022 Around the World in 80 Days           Viva Kids
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness           Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter           Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era           Focus Features
5/20/2022 Men           A24
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022 Watcher           IFC Films
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding           Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank           Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/29/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance           Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear           Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.           Focus Features
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)           Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees           Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives           MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Shazam! Fury of the Gods           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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