The long range look ahead into early 2024 continues with a peek at key releases slated to open for next month’s Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend.
The Beekeeper
MGM
January 12, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $8M-$13M
Domestic Total Range: $25M-$41M
WEEKEND PROS:
- Mean Girls is likely to stand out for its core female audience appeal across a variety of ages. Social media buzz across TikTok and Instagram have been solid in the early days of marketing and trailer rotation. The original film was a runaway hit in 2004, earning $86.1 million domestically before spawning the popular Broadway adaptation this new cinematic iteration is an extension of.
- The Book of Clarence could be a sleeper to watch for as it attempts to attract older fans of traditional faith-based films alongside younger audiences and black communities via a modern take on the New Testament. A timely debut over MLK weekend could prove advantageous as well.
- Jason Statham has a core audience of older action fans that regularly turn out for his theatrical films. Early marketing indicates this one is right in their wheelhouse, and the holiday frame has previously seen similar titles perform well.
The Book of Clarence
Sony Pictures
January 12, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$15M
Domestic Total Range: $15M-$35M
WEEKEND CONS:
- If the Mean Girls revamp has a challenge ahead of it, it could be drawing the millennial audience that drove the original film’s success 20 years ago—who are by no means a sure bet to flock to this musical reboot, despite the return of Tina Fey.
- As a more modern and progressive take on the Biblical tale, The Book of Clarence might be a challenging sell to those aforementioned older moviegoers who ordinarily turn out for faith-based and Biblically-set films on a regular basis. That could be doubly true if The Color Purple‘s staying power extends well past its Christmas opening.
- There’s been a ceiling to most of Jason Statham’s solo films in recent years—not unlike the recent stretch of films from Liam Neeson, which have endured diminished returns but settled into an often profitable box office range for their studios when given relatively low budgets.
Mean Girls
Paramount Pictures
January 12, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $20M-$40M
Domestic Total Range: $50M-$105M
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023-2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 12/14/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 12/22/2023 | All of Us Strangers (Limited) | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 12/22/2023 | American Fiction (Expansion) | MGM / MRC | |||||
| 12/22/2023 | Anyone But You | $1,000,000 – $3,000,000 | $4,000,000 – $15,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 12/22/2023 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $29,000,000 – $38,000,000 | -8% | $38,000,000 – $51,000,000 | $105,000,000 – $155,000,000 | -8% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 12/22/2023 | The Iron Claw | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 – $26,000,000 | A24 | |||
| 12/22/2023 | Migration | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $21,000,000 – $28,000,000 | $112,000,000 – $167,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Illumination | ||
| 12/22/2023 | Salaar: Part 1 Ceasefire | Prathyangira Cinemas | |||||
| 12/25/2023 | The Boys in the Boat | $1,500,000 – $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 – $16,000,000 | MGM | |||
| 12/25/2023 | The Color Purple | $16,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $75,000,000 – $125,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 12/25/2023 | Ferrari | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | NEON | |||
| 1/5/2024 | Night Swim | $17,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $38,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | |||
| 1/5/2024 | The Painter | Republic Pictures | |||||
| 1/12/2024 | The Beekeeper | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $41,000,000 | MGM | |||
| 1/12/2024 | The Book of Clarence | $7,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Sony Pictures | |||
| 1/12/2024 | Mean Girls | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $105,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 1/12/2024 | Soul | Disney / Pixar |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
Share this post