This week’s report takes a glance at the final frame of September, as a trio of films are poised to generate a healthy lead-in to October and the final quarter of 2023.
The Creator
20th Century Studios (Disney)
September 29, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $15M-$24M
Domestic Total Range: $40M-$85M
PROS:
- The Creator could spur considerable interest from sci-fi and genre fans thanks to director Gareth Edwards’ history in that wheelhouse with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2014’s Godzilla. Among this week’s planned releases, Creator currently boasts the strongest social media impact and early marketing footprint. Premium screen presence will be helpful; October competition should be minimal; and early tracking is slightly ahead of 65, also a science-fiction movie not based on prior IP.
- Family-centric animated films are all but non-existent on the fall release calendar until late November, which is a major plus for PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. 2021 hybrid release PAW Patrol: The Movie, drew $40.1 million domestically mid-pandemic; this exclusively theatrical successor is already tracking comparably with marketing yet to hit full stride.
- Saw X is leaning on its core fan base that has shown up for the previous nine films dating back to 2004, with box office returns that have settled into a consistent range of performances over the past fourteen years.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Paramount Pictures
September 29, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
Domestic Total Range: $30M-$48M
CONS:
- As an original film with no built-in fan base, The Creator will need to bank on strong marketing, reviews, and audience reception to drive its debut and chase weekends. That’s even more important when considering sci-fi films can often come across as too esoteric for general audiences. The ongoing strikes will further hinder promotion.
- Despite pandemic restrictions, the prior PAW Patrol film was relatively front-loaded for an animated family release. As a film squarely aimed at very young fans of the franchise, the ceiling for Mighty Movie‘s box office performance likely isn’t much higher.
- Similarly, the Saw brand and gore-driven, psychological horror are well past their mid-2000s commercial peak. 2021’s Spiral posted the lowest performance of the franchise ($23.2 million domestic total) during the pandemic, and Saw X faces other mainstream-friendly horror offerings in September and October.
Saw X
Lionsgate
September 29, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
Domestic Total Range: $22M-$35M
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/31/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 9/8/2023 | My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $24,000,000 – $43,000,000 | Focus Features | ||
| 9/8/2023 | The Nun II | $30,000,000 – $44,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $95,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 9/15/2023 | A Haunting in Venice | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $57,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||
| 9/15/2023 | Amerikatsi | Variance Films / Everest Films | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Camp Hideout | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 9/15/2023 | Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Barbie (IMAX Release) | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Dumb Money (Limited Expansion) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/22/2023 | Expend4bles | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $31,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/29/2023 | The Creator | $15,000,000 – $24,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $85,000,000 | 20th Century Studios | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Dumb Money (Moderate Expansion) | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||
| 9/29/2023 | PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $48,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 9/29/2023 | Saw X | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $22,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Lionsgate |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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