Long Range Box Office Forecast: THE EQUALIZER 3

Photo by Stefano Montesi, © 2023 CTMG, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

This week’s update brings summer to a close and takes an early look at the start of fall movie season, with Sony’s The Equalizer 3 slated to release over Labor Day weekend.

The Equalizer 3

Sony Pictures

September 1, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$32M

Domestic Total Range: $65M-$88M

PROS:

  • Prior Equalizer installments have performed well, earning nearly identical box office openings ($34.1 million in 2014 and $36 million in 2018) as well as final totals ($101.5 million and $102.1 million domestically; $192.9 million and $190.4 million globally).
  • The return of Denzel Washington should bring back much of the target audience, which skews heavily male. 2018’s The Equalizer 2 drew 58 percent men and 68 percent over the age of 25 during its midsummer debut.
  • Early forecast models are comparable to those of 2019’s Angel Has Fallen and ahead of Rambo: Last Blood.

CONS:

  • With another five-year gap between installments, this is the kind of sequel that could be impacted by the recent trend of aging franchises seeing diminishing returns in tandem with changing consumer habits.
  • Labor Day weekend is not historically a major moviegoing frame, with the exception of 2021 when Marvel Studios launched Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
  • Staying power could be challenged by the likes of A Haunting of Venice, Expend4ables, and The Creator during Equalizer 3‘s chase weeks.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/3/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
8/11/2023 The Last Voyage of the Demeter $5,000,000 – $10,000,000   $14,000,000 – $28,000,000   Universal Pictures
8/18/2023 Back on the Strip         Luminosity Entertainment
8/18/2023 Blue Beetle $13,000,000 – $18,000,000   $29,000,000 – $58,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
8/18/2023 The Hill         Briarcliff Entertainment
8/18/2023 Strays $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 -8% $38,000,000 – $71,000,000 -8% Universal Pictures
8/25/2023 Golda         Fathom Events
8/25/2023 Gran Turismo (Sneaks on 8/11 and 8/18 weekends) $17,000,000 – $22,000,000   $40,000,000 – $61,000,000   Sony Pictures
8/25/2023 The Hill         Briarcliff Entertainment
8/25/2023 Retribution         Roadside Attractions
9/1/2023 The Equalizer 3 $25,000,000 – $32,000,000   $65,000,000 – $88,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.

Photo by Stefano Montesi, © 2023 CTMG, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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