This week’s update brings summer to a close and takes an early look at the start of fall movie season, with Sony’s The Equalizer 3 slated to release over Labor Day weekend.
The Equalizer 3
September 1, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$32M
Domestic Total Range: $65M-$88M
- Prior Equalizer installments have performed well, earning nearly identical box office openings ($34.1 million in 2014 and $36 million in 2018) as well as final totals ($101.5 million and $102.1 million domestically; $192.9 million and $190.4 million globally).
- The return of Denzel Washington should bring back much of the target audience, which skews heavily male. 2018’s The Equalizer 2 drew 58 percent men and 68 percent over the age of 25 during its midsummer debut.
- Early forecast models are comparable to those of 2019’s Angel Has Fallen and ahead of Rambo: Last Blood.
- With another five-year gap between installments, this is the kind of sequel that could be impacted by the recent trend of aging franchises seeing diminishing returns in tandem with changing consumer habits.
- Labor Day weekend is not historically a major moviegoing frame, with the exception of 2021 when Marvel Studios launched Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
- Staying power could be challenged by the likes of A Haunting of Venice, Expend4ables, and The Creator during Equalizer 3‘s chase weeks.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/3/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|8/11/2023||The Last Voyage of the Demeter||$5,000,000 – $10,000,000||$14,000,000 – $28,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|8/18/2023||Back on the Strip||Luminosity Entertainment|
|8/18/2023||Blue Beetle||$13,000,000 – $18,000,000||$29,000,000 – $58,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/18/2023||The Hill||Briarcliff Entertainment|
|8/18/2023||Strays||$15,000,000 – $25,000,000||-8%||$38,000,000 – $71,000,000||-8%||Universal Pictures|
|8/25/2023||Gran Turismo (Sneaks on 8/11 and 8/18 weekends)||$17,000,000 – $22,000,000||$40,000,000 – $61,000,000||Sony Pictures|
|8/25/2023||The Hill||Briarcliff Entertainment|
|9/1/2023||The Equalizer 3||$25,000,000 – $32,000,000||$65,000,000 – $88,000,000||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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