Long Range Box Office Forecast: THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

© Universal Studios. All Rights Reserved.

This week’s report dives into the the beginning of 2023’s fourth quarter, with with early analysis and projections for the next horror offering on this fall’s theatrical menu.

The Exorcist: Believer

Universal Pictures

October 6, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $18M-$27M

Domestic Total Range: $41M-$69M

PROS:

  • Universal, Blumhouse, and director David Gordon Green previously revitalized the Halloween franchise with strong box office success, most recently sending 2022’s Halloween Ends to a $40 million opening weekend.
  • Horror has been a steadily reliable genre, and Believer‘s timely release this October could be advantageous. Ditto for its premium screen footprint.
  • Initial pre-sale and social media trends are encouraging, and it’s not impossible for this film’s second weekend—which includes “Friday the 13th” on the calendar—to catch some spillover business from the expected blockbuster crowds selling out Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour.

CONS:

  • Beyond the iconic original film, The Exorcist franchise hasn’t historically driven big performances, with the most recent wide release in the series (2004’s Exorcist: The Beginning) posting $41.8 million domestically during its entire run.
  • That two-decade absence from pop culture could limit appeal to younger audiences who are often at the heart of horror movie box office breakouts. That’s especially true for young women who will be preoccupied with the release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour one week later.
  • The crowded market for horror and horror-adjacent films this season may also be a factor to watch for, as Believer‘s release shortly follows September’s The Nun II, A Haunting in Venice, and Saw X, while preceding late October’s Five Nights at Freddy’s.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/7/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
9/15/2023 A Haunting in Venice $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 25% $42,000,000 – $60,000,000 22% Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/15/2023 Amerikatsi         Variance Films / Everest Films
9/15/2023 Camp Hideout         Roadside Attractions
9/15/2023 Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY / Chicago / DC / Boston / San Francisco)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023 Barbie (IMAX Release)         Warner Bros. Pictures
9/22/2023 Dumb Money (Moderate Expansion)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023 Expend4bles $13,000,000 – $18,000,000   $31,000,000 – $45,000,000   Lionsgate
9/22/2023 It Lives Inside         NEON
9/29/2023 The Creator $15,000,000 – $24,000,000   $40,000,000 – $85,000,000   20th Century Studios
9/29/2023 Dumb Money (Wide Expansion) $5,000,000 – $10,000,000   $14,000,000 – $42,000,000   Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/29/2023 PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $48,000,000   Paramount Pictures
9/29/2023 Saw X $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $22,000,000 – $35,000,000   Lionsgate
9/29/2023 Untitled Universal Event Film         Universal Pictures
10/6/2023 The Exorcist: Believer $18,000,000 – $27,000,000   $41,000,000 – $69,000,000   Universal Pictures
10/6/2023 Foe         Amazon Studios
10/6/2023 Cat Person         Rialto Pictures
10/6/2023 Freeland         Freelance

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

© Universal Studios. All Rights Reserved.
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