Long Range Box Office Forecast: THE FIRST OMEN and MONKEY MAN

This week’s report moves forward into April with an early look at two major studio releases slated to kick off the second quarter of 2024.

The First Omen

20th Century Studios

April 5, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $8M-$13M
Domestic Total Range: $20M-$34M


  • Horror franchises have been a sturdy support beam for cinemas and studios in recent years. The built-in IP appeal of The Omen series could be attractive to genre fans if marketing and buzz pick up in the weeks ahead.
  • Early trailer imprints and social buzz for Monkey Man have been very positive since the film’s first preview was released online earlier this year. With Universal and producer Jordan Peele’s history of success with original and high-concept films, plus the potential to appeal to fans of films such as John Wick and The Beekeeper, there is considerable sleeper potential for this action-thriller starring and directed by Dev Patel.

Monkey Man


April 5, 2024

Opening Weekend Range: $16M-$25M
Domestic Total Range: $45M-$75M


  • Early metrics for The First Omen don’t indicate the kind of IP nostalgia boost that other horror franchises have been able to generate. Additionally, 20th Century Studios releases have often underwhelmed at the box office due to various reasons extending from marketing to release strategies and film-specific buzz. Of the Disney-owned studio’s 16 releases in the mid- and post-pandemic eras, 9 have earned less than $40 million each in total domestic box office.
  • As an original film, Monkey Man will need the continued aid of social media momentum and healthy word of mouth if the movie is to live up to its potential as an under-the-radar spring hit.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/7/24)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Distributor
3/15/2024 Arthur The King $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 $33,000,000 – $64,000,000 Lionsgate
3/15/2024 Love Lies Bleeding (Wide Expansion)     A24
3/22/2024 One Life     Bleecker Street
3/22/2024 The American Society of Magical Negroes     Focus Features
3/22/2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $35,000,000 – $47,000,000 $96,000,000 – $138,000,000 Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/22/2024 Luca     Disney / Pixar
3/29/2024 Asphalt City     Vertical & Roadside Attractions
3/29/2024 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $43,000,000 – $50,000,000 $95,000,000 – $140,000,000 Warner Bros. Pictures
3/29/2024 In the Land of Saints and Sinners     Samuel Goldwyn Films
4/5/2024 The First Omen $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $20,000,000 – $34,400,000 20th Century Studios
4/5/2024 Monkey Man $16,000,000 – $25,000,000 $45,000,000 – $75,000,000 Universal Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.