This week’s report moves forward into April with an early look at two major studio releases slated to kick off the second quarter of 2024.
The First Omen
20th Century Studios
April 5, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $8M-$13M
Domestic Total Range: $20M-$34M
WEEKEND PROS:
- Horror franchises have been a sturdy support beam for cinemas and studios in recent years. The built-in IP appeal of The Omen series could be attractive to genre fans if marketing and buzz pick up in the weeks ahead.
- Early trailer imprints and social buzz for Monkey Man have been very positive since the film’s first preview was released online earlier this year. With Universal and producer Jordan Peele’s history of success with original and high-concept films, plus the potential to appeal to fans of films such as John Wick and The Beekeeper, there is considerable sleeper potential for this action-thriller starring and directed by Dev Patel.
Monkey Man
Universal
April 5, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $16M-$25M
Domestic Total Range: $45M-$75M
WEEKEND CONS:
- Early metrics for The First Omen don’t indicate the kind of IP nostalgia boost that other horror franchises have been able to generate. Additionally, 20th Century Studios releases have often underwhelmed at the box office due to various reasons extending from marketing to release strategies and film-specific buzz. Of the Disney-owned studio’s 16 releases in the mid- and post-pandemic eras, 9 have earned less than $40 million each in total domestic box office.
- As an original film, Monkey Man will need the continued aid of social media momentum and healthy word of mouth if the movie is to live up to its potential as an under-the-radar spring hit.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/7/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 3/15/2024 | Arthur The King | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | $33,000,000 – $64,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| 3/15/2024 | Love Lies Bleeding (Wide Expansion) | A24 | ||
| 3/22/2024 | One Life | Bleecker Street | ||
| 3/22/2024 | The American Society of Magical Negroes | Focus Features | ||
| 3/22/2024 | Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire | $35,000,000 – $47,000,000 | $96,000,000 – $138,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures |
| 3/22/2024 | Luca | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 3/29/2024 | Asphalt City | Vertical & Roadside Attractions | ||
| 3/29/2024 | Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | $43,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $95,000,000 – $140,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/29/2024 | In the Land of Saints and Sinners | Samuel Goldwyn Films | ||
| 4/5/2024 | The First Omen | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $34,400,000 | 20th Century Studios |
| 4/5/2024 | Monkey Man | $16,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $75,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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