Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Lost City, Plus The Batman‘s Latest Tracking Update

Photo Credits: Paramount Pictures ("The Lost City")

This week’s report welcomes the addition of Paramount Pictures’ The Lost City to the Long Range Forecast. Led by Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum, the comedy is slated to open exclusively in theaters on Friday, March 25.

In addition, the chart below includes the latest tracking update for next week’s highly anticipated launch of The Batman, as well as the removal of Guy Ritchie’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre from the forecast and calendar following STXfilms’ un-dating of the picture late last week.

The Lost City
Paramount Pictures
March 25, 2022

PROS:

  • In an era when star power is often questioned, Bullock and Tatum each have arguments in their favor when it comes to drawing ability at the box office.

    Bullock has long history of success in the comedic genre from the Miss Congeniality films to The Proposal, Ocean’s 8, and The Blind Side, while Tatum expanded his audience through the Jump Street and Magic Mike franchises before recently helping to drive Dog above expectations.
  • Early tracking and social metrics for the comedy are on par with pre-pandemic releases such as Game Night and Blockers, both of which leveraged strong casts in the way Lost City hopes to with Daniel Radcliffe and Brad Pitt making well-promoted supporting turns. Current models are also not far behind those of Free Guy, with room to grow on all fronts.
  • By the end of March, the domestic market will be relatively barren. This film’s release weekend will mark The Batman‘s fourth, and no intervening openers before March 25 will stand out with mainstream audiences in the way Lost City is bidding to.
  • The film’s promise of escapist comedy with appeal to men and women should be a strength as we hope to get a clearer sense of audience sentiment heading into spring as COVID cases decline, especially with a theatrically exclusive release.

CONS:

  • This genre isn’t well-tested during the pandemic era yet and could be a significant barometer of what content consumers prioritize in theaters versus a later streaming release, so forecasts are naturally volatile until closer to release.

    Pre-sale activity isn’t likely to signal the full potential of its run, either, with significant “date night” and walk-up business expected for a non-IP release. Reviews, by extension, could be important for determining staying power.
  • Appeal is likely to lean slightly toward adult women, an audience that — until Dog‘s over-performance — has frequently been the most cautious to return to moviegoing.
  • Competition in the stretch weekends will be worth considering as Morbius (April 1), Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (April 8), and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (April 15) immediately proceed The Lost City‘s first frame.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/25/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/4/2022 The Batman $130,000,000 – $170,000,000 -10% $330,000,000 – $475,000,000 -9% 4,300 Warner Bros. Pictures
3/11/2022 (no wide releases scheduled)            
3/18/2022 The Outfit n/a   n/a     Focus Features
3/18/2022 The Unbreakable Boy n/a   n/a     Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/18/2022 Umma n/a   n/a     Sony / Stage 6 Films
3/18/2022 X n/a   n/a     A24
3/25/2022 The Lost City $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 – $85,000,000 NEW   Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor           Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius           Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Walt Disney Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2           Paramount Pictures
4/15/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022 Father Stu           Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman           Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent           Lionsgate
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness           Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter           Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 DC Super Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era           Focus Features
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/10/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding           Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
7/22/2022 Blazing Samurai           Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance           Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)           Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
11/4/2022 The Flash           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees           Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives           MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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