This week’s report welcomes the addition of Paramount Pictures’ The Lost City to the Long Range Forecast. Led by Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum, the comedy is slated to open exclusively in theaters on Friday, March 25.
In addition, the chart below includes the latest tracking update for next week’s highly anticipated launch of The Batman, as well as the removal of Guy Ritchie’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre from the forecast and calendar following STXfilms’ un-dating of the picture late last week.
The Lost City
March 25, 2022
- In an era when star power is often questioned, Bullock and Tatum each have arguments in their favor when it comes to drawing ability at the box office.
Bullock has long history of success in the comedic genre from the Miss Congeniality films to The Proposal, Ocean’s 8, and The Blind Side, while Tatum expanded his audience through the Jump Street and Magic Mike franchises before recently helping to drive Dog above expectations.
- Early tracking and social metrics for the comedy are on par with pre-pandemic releases such as Game Night and Blockers, both of which leveraged strong casts in the way Lost City hopes to with Daniel Radcliffe and Brad Pitt making well-promoted supporting turns. Current models are also not far behind those of Free Guy, with room to grow on all fronts.
- By the end of March, the domestic market will be relatively barren. This film’s release weekend will mark The Batman‘s fourth, and no intervening openers before March 25 will stand out with mainstream audiences in the way Lost City is bidding to.
- The film’s promise of escapist comedy with appeal to men and women should be a strength as we hope to get a clearer sense of audience sentiment heading into spring as COVID cases decline, especially with a theatrically exclusive release.
- This genre isn’t well-tested during the pandemic era yet and could be a significant barometer of what content consumers prioritize in theaters versus a later streaming release, so forecasts are naturally volatile until closer to release.
Pre-sale activity isn’t likely to signal the full potential of its run, either, with significant “date night” and walk-up business expected for a non-IP release. Reviews, by extension, could be important for determining staying power.
- Appeal is likely to lean slightly toward adult women, an audience that — until Dog‘s over-performance — has frequently been the most cautious to return to moviegoing.
- Competition in the stretch weekends will be worth considering as Morbius (April 1), Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (April 8), and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (April 15) immediately proceed The Lost City‘s first frame.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/25/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|3/4/2022||The Batman||$130,000,000 – $170,000,000||-10%||$330,000,000 – $475,000,000||-9%||4,300||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|3/11/2022||(no wide releases scheduled)|
|3/18/2022||The Outfit||n/a||n/a||Focus Features|
|3/18/2022||The Unbreakable Boy||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company|
|3/18/2022||Umma||n/a||n/a||Sony / Stage 6 Films|
|3/25/2022||The Lost City||$15,000,000 – $25,000,000||NEW||$45,000,000 – $85,000,000||NEW||Paramount Pictures|
|4/1/2022||The Contractor||Paramount Pictures|
|4/1/2022||Morbius||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|4/8/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Walt Disney Pictures|
|4/8/2022||Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2||Universal Pictures|
|4/8/2022||Sonic the Hedgehog 2||Paramount Pictures|
|4/15/2022||Eiffel||Blue Fox Entertainment|
|4/15/2022||Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|4/15/2022||Father Stu||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|4/15/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|4/22/2022||The Bad Guys||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|4/22/2022||The Northman||Focus Features|
|4/22/2022||The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent||Lionsgate|
|5/6/2022||Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|5/20/2022||DC Super Pets||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|5/20/2022||Downton Abbey: A New Era||Focus Features|
|5/27/2022||Bob’s Burgers||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|5/27/2022||Top Gun Maverick||Paramount Pictures|
|6/3/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/10/2022||Jurassic World: Dominion||Universal Pictures|
|6/10/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Disney / Searchlight|
|6/17/2022||Lightyear||Disney / Pixar|
|6/24/2022||The Black Phone||Universal Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Elvis||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Untitled Blumhouse Project||Universal Pictures|
|7/1/2022||Minions: The Rise of Gru||Universal Pictures|
|7/8/2022||Thor: Love and Thunder||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|7/15/2022||Bullet Train||Sony Pictures|
|7/15/2022||Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris||Focus Features|
|7/22/2022||Blazing Samurai||Paramount Pictures|
|7/22/2022||Where the Crawdads Sing||Sony / 3000 Pictures|
|7/29/2022||Black Adam||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Easter Sunday||Universal Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Secret Headquarters||Paramount Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/12/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Disney / Searchlight|
|8/12/2022||Man from Toronto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||The Bride||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||Samaritan||United Artists Releasing|
|9/2/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|9/9/2022||Salem’s Lot||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/16/2022||Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.||Lionsgate|
|9/16/2022||The Woman King||Sony / TriStar Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Don’t Worry Darling||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Puss In Boots: The Last Wish||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|9/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 3||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|10/7/2022||Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)||Sony Pictures|
|10/14/2022||Halloween Ends||Universal Pictures|
|10/14/2022||White Bird: A Wonder Story||Lionsgate|
|10/21/2022||Ticket to Paradise||Universal Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Untitled Paramount||Paramount Pictures|
|10/28/2022||The Devil’s Light||Lionsgate|
|11/4/2022||The Flash||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/4/2022||Untitled Bee Gees||Paramount Pictures|
|11/4/2022||Untitled David O. Russell||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|11/11/2022||Black Panther: Wakanda Forever||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|11/18/2022||Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/18/2022||She Said||Universal Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Thirteen Lives||MGM / United Artists Releasing|
|11/23/2022||The Fabelmans||Universal Pictures|
|11/23/2022||Strange World||Walt Disney Pictures|
|12/2/2022||Violent Night||Universal Pictures|
|12/9/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|12/16/2022||Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|12/21/2022||Avatar 2||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/21/2022||I Wanna Dance With Somebody||Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures|
|12/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 6||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/25/2022||A Man Called Otto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|12/30/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
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