Although the new year has begun rather slowly in terms of new releases, the late winter and early spring movie calendar isn’t far off as we reach the back end of January.
It will still be a few more weeks before the box office truly ramps up to consistent levels again, but February will at least begin an upward progression that — as usual, pending the state of the pandemic — should see a steadier state of mainstream films bring in valuable business for exhibitors.
This week’s return of the Long Range report looks four weeks out with an eye on major releases through Presidents’ Day weekend.
Based on early January trends and projections for the next month, it should be around that time frame when domestic box office approaches the $500 million threshold for 2022 — a feat which didn’t occur until the middle of May last year due to the prolonged impact of pandemic closures and slim release slates.
- The Jackass franchise was a runaway box office smash during the brand’s heyday, earning more than $356 million domestically and $488 million globally across four films between 2002 and 2013.
- Appeal to male audiences appears to be healthy as one of the few straight-up comedies to release during the pandemic so far. Nostalgia is likely to drive both some of the series’ older fans and today’s younger generation out to theaters for this latest entry.
- The release slate has been virtually empty, outside of the successful Scream sequel, since the 2021 holiday season wrapped up. Some pent-up demand is likely for a short comedy with built-in IP.
- It’s fair to question whether or not Jackass Forever can reach the box office heights of its predecessors. A new generation of youth has emerged since the last film, 2013’s Bad Grandpa, opened to $32 million and legged out to $102 million. That kind of staying power may not be likely here since the three traditional Jackass films — particularly the second and third entries — were far more front-loaded, but it doesn’t need to be for such inexpensive films.
- Jackass was a franchise that came of age at a very different time in the entertainment world. Since the rise of streaming and other entertainment mediums like TikTok, it remains to be seen how much of the target audience not only remains interested, but also what share of that crowd will rush out to theaters versus wait for a streaming release.
- Although not necessarily connected to Jackass directly, the box office misfire of 2018’s Action Park (starring Johnny Knoxville) is worth keeping in mind alongside the aforementioned generational concerns.
- A large-scale, escapist action flick with star names and appeal to a somewhat more diverse audience on the same weekend as Jackass Forever could make for a solid counter-programming strategy, especially with a premium format presence in IMAX.
- Initial marketing and trailers have generated mixed social media traction with preliminary tracking metrics similar to those of 2017’s Geostorm. Audience interest in the “global destruction” sub-genre, which has waned from its late 90s and early 00s peak, will be tested with this kind of release.
Death on the Nile
- 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express was a solid hit for Fox and star/director Kenneth Branagh thanks to excellent marketing and built-in brand appeal among Agatha Christie fans. The film earned nearly $103 million domestically and $353 million worldwide.
- With another ensemble cast of star names, and after multiple trailers and release delays over the past two years, the sequel’s exposure is certainly respectable enough for a mid-range film.
- While some diminished returns were expected for a somewhat lesser-known (but still popular) novel before the pandemic became a consideration, the target audience is crucial to consider. Orient Express drew moviegoers predominately female (56 percent) and over the age of 35 (51 percent) on opening weekend over four years ago. That crowd remains the most cautious during the pandemic box office recovery era.
- Jennifer Lopez has a solid track record in the romantic-comedy genre, and most recently broke out yet again with 2019’s Hustlers. Coupled with Owen Wilson in a co-leading role, this film is well-timed for date night moviegoers around Valentine’s Day (which lands the Monday after opening weekend).
- Once again, this is a film targeted toward the audience most slowly returning to cinemas during the pandemic. Coupled with a simultaneous free streaming release on Peacock, box office earnings are unlikely to reach the heights of past successful rom-coms which opened this time of year.
- A feel-good “buddy” movie with a star name and comedic touch could find strong appeal among families returning to movie theaters. Channing Tatum provides a strong drawing element, and the four-day holiday weekend is primed for parents and kids to turn out. Strong legs, rather than a large debut, should be expected.
- The proliferation of dog-centric movies (A Dog’s Journey, A Dog’s Purpose, A Dog’s Way Home, The Art of Racing in the Rain, etc.) in recent years could have some minor impact on overall demand regardless of the pandemic market. Forecasts are also volatile due to the evolving nature of the family audience during the pandemic.
- Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg provide an integral star presence to this video game adaptation, with the former notably fresh off the phenomenal success of Spider-Man: No Way Home. Combined with the best-selling game’s built-in fan base, appeal to a somewhat diverse range of young and adult audiences could be in store.
- Presidents’ Day weekend is timely for this kind of action-adventure release. Uncharted‘s preliminary social metrics aren’t far behind those of 2015’s Kingsman: The Secret Service when it bowed to $41.8 million over the same four-day holiday frame. Early tracking against 2018’s Rampage is also comparable, and a strong PLF footprint will also be advantageous for Uncharted.
- Video game adaptations have a sorted history, to say the least. Until 2019’s Detective Pikachu, none had exceeded a $40 million three-day debut outside of 2001’s Lara Croft: Tomb Raider ($47.7 million).
- Trailer views and social imprints are considerably high thanks in part to a trailer attachment with No Way Home throughout its record-shattering theatrical run, but sentiment scores have left something to be desired. This could indicate reviews and word of mouth will be even more important for any breakout chances at the box office, especially as it opens just two weeks before The Batman.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 1/21/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|1/28/2022||You Won’t Be Alone||n/a||Focus Features|
|2/4/2022||Jackass Forever||$23,000,000 – $33,000,000||$48,000,000 – $68,000,000||3,200||Paramount Pictures|
|2/4/2022||Moonfall||$8,000,000 – $15,000,000||$20,000,000 – $50,000,000||3,200||Lionsgate|
|2/11/2022||The Beatles: Get Back – The Rooftop Concert||Disney|
|2/11/2022||Death on the Nile||$14,000,000 – $19,000,000||$45,000,000 – $70,000,000||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|2/11/2022||Marry Me||$8,000,000 – $13,000,000||$22,000,000 – $42,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|2/18/2022||Dog||$8,000,000 – $15,000,000||$30,000,000 – $65,000,000||MGM|
|2/18/2022||Uncharted||$25,000,000 – $40,000,000||$65,000,000 – $105,000,000||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|2/25/2022||Cyrano (Wide Expansion)||United Artists Releasing|
|2/25/2022||The Devil’s Light||Lionsgate|
|2/25/2022||The Outfit||Focus Features|
|3/4/2022||The Batman||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|3/4/2022||Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris||Focus Features|
|3/11/2022||Untitled Universal Musical Event||Universal Pictures|
|3/18/2022||Downton Abbey: A New Era||Focus Features|
|3/18/2022||Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre||STXfilms|
|3/18/2022||The Unbreakable Boy||Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company|
|3/25/2022||The Lost City||Paramount Pictures|
|4/1/2022||Easter Sunday||Universal Pictures|
|4/1/2022||Morbius||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|4/8/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Walt Disney Pictures|
|4/8/2022||Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2||Universal Pictures|
|4/8/2022||Sonic the Hedgehog 2||Paramount Pictures|
|4/15/2022||Eiffel||Blue Fox Entertainment|
|4/15/2022||Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|4/15/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|4/22/2022||The Bad Guys||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|4/22/2022||The Northman||Focus Features|
|4/22/2022||The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent||Lionsgate|
|4/29/2022||65||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|5/6/2022||Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|5/13/2022||Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project 2022 1||Universal Pictures|
|5/20/2022||DC Super Pets||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|5/27/2022||Bob’s Burgers||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|5/27/2022||Top Gun Maverick||Paramount Pictures|
|6/3/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/10/2022||Jurassic World: Dominion||Universal Pictures|
|6/10/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Disney / Searchlight|
|6/17/2022||Lightyear||Disney / Pixar|
|6/17/2022||Oh Hell No||Sony Pictures|
|6/24/2022||The Black Phone||Universal Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Elvis||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|6/24/2022||Untitled Blumhouse Project||Universal Pictures|
|7/1/2022||Minions: The Rise of Gru||Universal Pictures|
|7/8/2022||Thor: Love and Thunder||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|7/15/2022||Bullet Train||Sony Pictures|
|7/22/2022||Under the Boardwalk||Paramount Pictures|
|7/22/2022||Where the Crawdads Sing||Sony / 3000 Pictures|
|7/29/2022||Black Adam||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/5/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/12/2022||Secret Headquarters||Paramount Pictures|
|8/12/2022||Untitled Searchlight||Disney / Searchlight|
|8/12/2022||Man from Toronto||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||The Bride||Sony Pictures / Columbia|
|8/26/2022||Samaritan||United Artists Releasing|
|9/2/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|9/9/2022||Salem’s Lot||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/16/2022||White Bird: A Wonder Story||Lionsgate|
|9/16/2022||The Woman King||Sony / TriStar Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Don’t Worry Darling||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Puss In Boots: The Last Wish||Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation|
|9/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 3||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|9/30/2022||Mission: Impossible 7||Paramount Pictures|
|10/7/2022||Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)||Sony Pictures|
|10/14/2022||Halloween Ends||Universal Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Ticket to Paradise||Universal Pictures|
|10/21/2022||Untitled Paramount||Paramount Pictures|
|10/28/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|11/4/2022||The Flash||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/4/2022||Untitled Bee Gees||Paramount Pictures|
|11/4/2022||Untitled David O. Russell||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|11/11/2022||Black Panther: Wakanda Forever||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|11/18/2022||Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|11/18/2022||Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|11/18/2022||She Said||Universal Pictures|
|11/23/2022||The Fabelmans||Universal Pictures|
|11/23/2022||Strange World||Walt Disney Pictures|
|12/2/2022||Violent Night||Universal Pictures|
|12/9/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
|12/16/2022||Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|12/21/2022||Avatar 2||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/23/2022||I Wanna Dance With Somebody||Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures|
|12/23/2022||Untitled 20th Century 2022 6||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|12/30/2022||(no releases scheduled)|
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.