Long Range Box Office Forecast: Uncharted, Death on the Nile, Jackass Forever, and Q1 Prospects through Presidents’ Day Frame

Photo Credits: Paramount ("Jackass Forever"); 20th Century Studios ("Death on the Nile"); Sony / Columbia ("Uncharted")

Although the new year has begun rather slowly in terms of new releases, the late winter and early spring movie calendar isn’t far off as we reach the back end of January.

It will still be a few more weeks before the box office truly ramps up to consistent levels again, but February will at least begin an upward progression that — as usual, pending the state of the pandemic — should see a steadier state of mainstream films bring in valuable business for exhibitors.

This week’s return of the Long Range report looks four weeks out with an eye on major releases through Presidents’ Day weekend.

Based on early January trends and projections for the next month, it should be around that time frame when domestic box office approaches the $500 million threshold for 2022 — a feat which didn’t occur until the middle of May last year due to the prolonged impact of pandemic closures and slim release slates.

Jackass Forever
February 4

PROS:

  • The Jackass franchise was a runaway box office smash during the brand’s heyday, earning more than $356 million domestically and $488 million globally across four films between 2002 and 2013.
  • Appeal to male audiences appears to be healthy as one of the few straight-up comedies to release during the pandemic so far. Nostalgia is likely to drive both some of the series’ older fans and today’s younger generation out to theaters for this latest entry.
  • The release slate has been virtually empty, outside of the successful Scream sequel, since the 2021 holiday season wrapped up. Some pent-up demand is likely for a short comedy with built-in IP.

CONS:

  • It’s fair to question whether or not Jackass Forever can reach the box office heights of its predecessors. A new generation of youth has emerged since the last film, 2013’s Bad Grandpa, opened to $32 million and legged out to $102 million. That kind of staying power may not be likely here since the three traditional Jackass films — particularly the second and third entries — were far more front-loaded, but it doesn’t need to be for such inexpensive films.
  • Jackass was a franchise that came of age at a very different time in the entertainment world. Since the rise of streaming and other entertainment mediums like TikTok, it remains to be seen how much of the target audience not only remains interested, but also what share of that crowd will rush out to theaters versus wait for a streaming release.
  • Although not necessarily connected to Jackass directly, the box office misfire of 2018’s Action Park (starring Johnny Knoxville) is worth keeping in mind alongside the aforementioned generational concerns.

Moonfall
February 4

PROS:

  • A large-scale, escapist action flick with star names and appeal to a somewhat more diverse audience on the same weekend as Jackass Forever could make for a solid counter-programming strategy, especially with a premium format presence in IMAX.

CONS:

  • Initial marketing and trailers have generated mixed social media traction with preliminary tracking metrics similar to those of 2017’s Geostorm. Audience interest in the “global destruction” sub-genre, which has waned from its late 90s and early 00s peak, will be tested with this kind of release.

Death on the Nile
February 11

PROS:

  • 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express was a solid hit for Fox and star/director Kenneth Branagh thanks to excellent marketing and built-in brand appeal among Agatha Christie fans. The film earned nearly $103 million domestically and $353 million worldwide.
  • With another ensemble cast of star names, and after multiple trailers and release delays over the past two years, the sequel’s exposure is certainly respectable enough for a mid-range film.

CONS:

  • While some diminished returns were expected for a somewhat lesser-known (but still popular) novel before the pandemic became a consideration, the target audience is crucial to consider. Orient Express drew moviegoers predominately female (56 percent) and over the age of 35 (51 percent) on opening weekend over four years ago. That crowd remains the most cautious during the pandemic box office recovery era.

Marry Me
February 11

PROS:

  • Jennifer Lopez has a solid track record in the romantic-comedy genre, and most recently broke out yet again with 2019’s Hustlers. Coupled with Owen Wilson in a co-leading role, this film is well-timed for date night moviegoers around Valentine’s Day (which lands the Monday after opening weekend).

CONS:

  • Once again, this is a film targeted toward the audience most slowly returning to cinemas during the pandemic. Coupled with a simultaneous free streaming release on Peacock, box office earnings are unlikely to reach the heights of past successful rom-coms which opened this time of year.

Dog
February 18

PROS:

  • A feel-good “buddy” movie with a star name and comedic touch could find strong appeal among families returning to movie theaters. Channing Tatum provides a strong drawing element, and the four-day holiday weekend is primed for parents and kids to turn out. Strong legs, rather than a large debut, should be expected.

CONS:

  • The proliferation of dog-centric movies (A Dog’s Journey, A Dog’s Purpose, A Dog’s Way Home, The Art of Racing in the Rain, etc.) in recent years could have some minor impact on overall demand regardless of the pandemic market. Forecasts are also volatile due to the evolving nature of the family audience during the pandemic.

Uncharted
February 18

PROS:

  • Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg provide an integral star presence to this video game adaptation, with the former notably fresh off the phenomenal success of Spider-Man: No Way Home. Combined with the best-selling game’s built-in fan base, appeal to a somewhat diverse range of young and adult audiences could be in store.
  • Presidents’ Day weekend is timely for this kind of action-adventure release. Uncharted‘s preliminary social metrics aren’t far behind those of 2015’s Kingsman: The Secret Service when it bowed to $41.8 million over the same four-day holiday frame. Early tracking against 2018’s Rampage is also comparable, and a strong PLF footprint will also be advantageous for Uncharted.

CONS:

  • Video game adaptations have a sorted history, to say the least. Until 2019’s Detective Pikachu, none had exceeded a $40 million three-day debut outside of 2001’s Lara Croft: Tomb Raider ($47.7 million).
  • Trailer views and social imprints are considerably high thanks in part to a trailer attachment with No Way Home throughout its record-shattering theatrical run, but sentiment scores have left something to be desired. This could indicate reviews and word of mouth will be even more important for any breakout chances at the box office, especially as it opens just two weeks before The Batman.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 1/21/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
1/28/2022 You Won’t Be Alone         n/a Focus Features
2/4/2022 Jackass Forever $23,000,000 – $33,000,000   $48,000,000 – $68,000,000   3,200 Paramount Pictures
2/4/2022 Moonfall $8,000,000 – $15,000,000   $20,000,000 – $50,000,000   3,200 Lionsgate
2/11/2022 The Beatles: Get Back – The Rooftop Concert           Disney
2/11/2022 Death on the Nile $14,000,000 – $19,000,000   $45,000,000 – $70,000,000     Disney / 20th Century Studios
2/11/2022 Marry Me $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $22,000,000 – $42,000,000     Universal Pictures
2/18/2022 Dog $8,000,000 – $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $65,000,000     MGM
2/18/2022 Uncharted $25,000,000 – $40,000,000   $65,000,000 – $105,000,000     Sony Pictures / Columbia
2/25/2022 Cyrano (Wide Expansion)           United Artists Releasing
2/25/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
2/25/2022 The Outfit           Focus Features
3/4/2022 The Batman           Warner Bros. Pictures
3/4/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
3/11/2022 Untitled Universal Musical Event           Universal Pictures
3/18/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era           Focus Features
3/18/2022 Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre           STXfilms
3/18/2022 The Unbreakable Boy           Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/25/2022 The Lost City           Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor           STXfilms
4/1/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius           Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Walt Disney Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2           Paramount Pictures
4/15/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman           Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent           Lionsgate
4/29/2022 65           Sony / Columbia Pictures
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness           Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project 2022 1           Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 DC Super Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/10/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/17/2022 Oh Hell No           Sony Pictures
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding           Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Under the Boardwalk           Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Mission: Impossible 7           Paramount Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)           Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
11/4/2022 The Flash           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees           Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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