Long Range Forecast: ‘Alien: Covenant,’ ‘Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul,’ & ‘Everything, Everything’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a brief look at three releases slated to open May 19.

Alien: Covenant

Five years after Ridley Scott returned to the franchise with Prometheus, the veteran filmmaker is taking another stab at the series that helped cement him as one of the most influential science fiction directors of any generation. Fans are excited by the potential of his return and another strong ensemble cast, as well as the encouraging first trailers that have been met with generally positive reactions online.

Still, Prometheus left many divisive opinions among moviegoers, and the law of diminishing returns dictates it will be tough to reignite the broader intrigue that drove the franchise in its early days since this is technically another prequel to the classic original film. Word of mouth will be very important after opening weekend.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul

Also returning after a five-year hiatus, the fourth flick in the Wimpy Kid series will again hope to court tweens and parents. This may prove to be a decent option for that crowd until Captain Underpants and Cars 3 open in early June, but again, the declining returns of 2012’s third film seem to indicate this series has passed its peak in terms of overall box office potential.

Everything, Everything
Warner Bros.

Based on Nicola Yoon’s popular debut novel, this will aim to reel in teens and young adults — particularly date night crowds. The “YA” genre’s box office reach has waned in recent years though, so we’re expecting a performance more in line with Paper Towns at this stage.

This Week’s Other Additions, Changes, & Notes

  • Buzz for The Boss Baby continues to improve leading up to next week’s release, despite an underwhelming batch of early critical reviews.
  • Conversely, we’re growing a bit more conservative in regard to Ghost In the Shell as its tracking slips behind the likes of Lucy and falls more in line with John Wick: Chapter 2.
  • Projections have slightly increased for Smurfs: The Lost Village based on positive social media and tracking trends. Long-term appeal remains solid with no other animated titles from major studios opening in April.
  • First industry tracking for The Fate of the Furious points to an opening weekend between $100-110 million as its interest levels come in a few percentage points ahead of where Fast & Furious 6 stood at the same point before release four years ago.

Check out our forecasts for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
3/31/2017 The Boss Baby $33,000,000 38% $112,000,000 35% 3,700 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
3/31/2017 Ghost in the Shell (2017) $32,000,000 -14% $82,000,000 -14% 3,400 Paramount / DreamWorks
4/7/2017 The Case for Christ $2,250,000 -36% $9,000,000 -36% 1,000 Pure Flix
4/7/2017 Going In Style (2017) $12,500,000 $49,000,000 2,900 Warner Bros. / New Line
4/7/2017 Smurfs: The Lost Village $24,000,000 12% $81,000,000 3% 3,700 Sony / Columbia
4/14/2017 The Fate of the Furious $110,000,000 $264,000,000 Universal
4/14/2017 Spark $3,000,000 $7,500,000 Open Road
4/21/2017 Born in China $5,500,000 $19,000,000 Disneynature
4/21/2017 Free Fire $8,000,000 $24,000,000 A24
4/21/2017 LEAP! $6,000,000 $19,000,000 The Weinstein Company
4/21/2017 The Promise $2,250,000 $4,000,000 Open Road Films
4/21/2017 Unforgettable $10,000,000 $23,500,000 Warner Bros.
4/28/2017 The Circle $13,000,000 $40,000,000 STX Entertainment
4/28/2017 How to Be a Latin Lover $6,500,000 $23,000,000 Lionsgate
4/28/2017 Sleight $5,000,000 $11,000,000 BH Tilt
5/5/2017 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $160,000,000 $400,000,000 Disney
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $23,000,000 $67,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/12/2017 Snatched $25,000,000 $85,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $35,000,000 NEW $90,000,000 NEW Fox
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $8,500,000 NEW $26,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $10,000,000 NEW $32,000,000 NEW Fox

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

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