Long Range Forecast — October 24, 2025
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere | Disney
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $25M
Jeremy Allen White stars as Bruce Springsteen in this film detailing the production of the iconic album “Nebraska.” In terms of box office, music biopics have been hit-or-miss as of late, with 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody ($51M domestic opening) and 2022’s Elvis ($31.2M) far and away the highest domestic grossers, with $216.4M and $151M, respectively, while the likes of Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody ($4.7M domestic opening), Piece by Piece ($3.8M), and Back in Black ($2.8M) have been unable to draw theatrical audiences.
In terms of debut box office potential, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere‘s predicted $15M—$25M range puts the film below 2024’s Bob Marley: One Love ($28.6M) and 2019’s Rocketman ($25.7M) and above 2024’s A Complete Unknown ($11.6M), the latter of which may have seen its box office diminished by its awards season-friendly—but extremely crowded—Christmas release. Though a release date tied to the holidays is common for the music biopic genre, a mid-autumn bow is not unheard of, with Bohemian Rhapsody (a pre-Disney acquisition Fox title) coming out November 2 and remaining in the top five through Thanksgiving.
Regretting You | Paramount
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M-$25M
Regretting You is the second film based on one of the works of Colleen Hoover, whose August 2024 romantic drama It Ends With Us opened to $50M en route to a domestic haul just shy of $150M, proving the existence of a sizable audience for the author’s work at the movies. The Blake Lively-starring It Ends With Us had several things going for it that Regretting You doesn’t—a drama-filled press tour, the added boost of opening against megahit Deadpool & Wolverine, starring Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds, or the lack of adult dramas in theaters in the run-up to It Ends With Us’ release, for example—but there’s still the possibility that pre-sales numbers could have us edging our Regretting You forecast upwards in the coming weeks. (Roughly a month before It Ends With Us came out, our forecasting panel had it opening to $20M-$30M.)
As a female-led drama based on a buzzy book, Regretting You bears comparison to Crazy Rich Asians ($26.5M domestic opening in August 2018); other female-led tearjerkers include 2014’s The Fault In Our Stars ($48M domestic opening), from Regretting You director Josh Boone, and 2019’s Five Feet Apart ($13.1M), directed by It Ends With Us‘ Justin Baldoni.
Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $6M – $10M
The popular manga/anime Chainsaw Man makes it to the big screen with the Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc, distributed by Sony subsidiary Cruncyroll. While not expected to debut anywhere close to the $70.6M bow of fellow Crunchyroll release Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – Infinity Castle—which easily broke the record for highest-grossing anime opening in North America when it came out earlier this month—anticipation for the title is still high, and pre-sales data over the coming weeks may nudge our forecast higher.
If Chainsaw Man opens higher than $10M domestically, it will join a list of seven titles to do so from since 2020, four of them from the Demon Slayer franchise, including the series’ domestic theatrical debut, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba—The Movie: Mugen Train, which opened to $21.2M in October 2020. Other instances of a popular anime adaptation getting an R-rated North American theatrical release include 2024’s Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- ($2.4M), Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom ($1.1M), and Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Hashira Training ($11.5M) and 2023’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village ($10.1M).
Tracking Updates [as of September 19]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 9/19 | A Big Bold Beautiful Journey | $7M – $10M | Sony |
| 9/19 | HIM | $15M – $20M | Universal |
| 9/19 | The Senior | $2M – $4M | Angel Studios |
| 9/26 | The Strangers: Chapter 2 | $8M – $12M | Lionsgate |
| 9/26 | One Battle After Another | $15M – $20M | Warner Bros. |
| 9/26 | Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie | $18M – $25M | Universal |
| 10/3 | The Smashing Machine | $10M – $18M | A24 |
| 10/10 | Roofman | $10M – $15M | Paramount |
| 10/10 | Soul on Fire | $4M – $8M | Sony / Affirm |
| 10/10 | Tron: Ares | $40M – $50M | Disney |
| 10/17 | Black Phone 2 | $20M – $28M | Universal |
| 10/17 | Good Fortune | $12M – $18M | Lionsgate |
| 10/17 | Truth & Treason | $2M – $4M | Angel Studios |
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