Long Range Forecast — December 25, 2025
Marty Supreme | A24
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $7M – $12M
Up against Anaconda in the battle of the Christmas Day openers—and from early December holdovers, including Avatar: Fire and Ash—are the stories of a ping-pong prodigy and a Neil Diamond cover band.
First up is Marty Supreme, from director Josh Safdie and starring Timothée Chalamet. Chalamet has emerged over the last few years as something of a Christmas mainstay; he starred in Wonka ($39.5M domestic opening ), out mid-December 2023 and featured in Netflix’s 2021 satire Don’t Look Up, which debuted on the streaming platform on Christmas Eve following a brief theatrical run, and Christmas Day 2019’s Little Women ($16.7M domestic opening).
More recently, Chalamet was in theaters last year with the Christmas Day release A Complete Unknown. That film grossed $7.2M in its first day of release (Christmas, a Wednesday) and went on to rack up $23.2M by Sunday; the film’s three-day, Friday-Sunday span came to $11.6M. That’s a fair three-day gross for Marty Supreme to aim for, with one caveat: A Complete Unknown opened on 2,800-plus screens, a number that Marty may have to fight to reach. Expect a slow roll out and eventual expansion in January, followed by a theatrical run extending through the Oscars on March 15.
Song Sung Blue | Focus Features / Universal
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson take center stage in the musical drama Song Sung Blue, adapted from a documentary of the same title. Over the past decade, Focus Features has often either opened or expanded one of their films over the Christmas weekend; see a partial list below. That said, the only film in that category that even vaguely matches Song Sung Blue‘s feel-good tone is 2016’s La La Land, which expanded to ~700 theaters on Christmas Day. By that time, La La Land had already become a heavyweight on the festival circuit, whereas the critical reception of Song Sung Blue to this point has been decidedly more muted. A better idea of Song Sung Blue‘s opening weekend screen count will clarify its earnings potential as we approach its Christmas Day release.
| TITLE | XMAS WEEKEND SCREEN COUNT | GROSS |
| Nosferatu (2024) | 2,992 | $21.6M (3-day); $40.8M (5-day) |
| Promising Young Woman (2020) | 1,310 | $719,305 (3-day) |
| La La Land (expansion) (2016) | 734 | $9.2M (4-day) |
| Darkest Hour (expansion) (2017) | 806 | $5.5M (4-day) |
| Mary Queen of Scots (expansion) (2018) | 814 | $3.5M (5-day) |
Tracking Updates [As Of 11/28]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 11/26 | Zootopia 2 | $100M – $125M (3-Day); $125M – $150M (5-Day) | Disney |
| 11/26 | Eternity | $1M – $3M | A24 |
| 12/5 | Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 | $25M – $40M | Universal |
| 12/12 | Ella McCay | $3M – $5M | 20th Century Studios / Disney |
| 12/12 | Hamnet (Expansion) | $3M – $5M | Focus Features / Universal |
| 12/19 | David | $15M – $20M | Angel Studios |
| 12/19 | The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants | $25M – $35M | Paramount |
| 12/19 | The Housemaid | $25M – $35M | Lionsgate |
| 12/19 | Avatar: Fire and Ash | $100M – $130M | 20th Century Studios / Disney |
| 12/25 | Anaconda | $20M – $30M | Sony |
| 12/25 | Marty Supreme | $7M – $12M | A24 |
| 12/25 | Song Sung Blue | $10M – $15M | Focus Features |
Share this post