Long Range Forecast: Can WOLF MAN Give 2025 Its First Horror Hit?

Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.

Long Range Forecast — January 17, 2024

Wolf Man | Universal

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $30M

Director Leigh Whannell follows up 2020’s The Invisible Man with his second recreation of a classic Universal horror property: Wolf Man. Initially set for release in October 2024, Wolf Man‘s January release means it faces little competition from other horror titles, a choice that potentially ups its chances of being the latest successful chapter in Universal’s lucrative first-deal look with Blumhouse Productions.

Previous collaborations between Universal and Blumhouse prove useful comps here, particularly the aforementioned The Invisible Man, which debuted to $28.2M in February 2020 and went on to earn a cume of $70.4M—though that figure is smaller than it would have been had the COVID pandemic not caused an industry-wide shutdown three weeks into its run. The following June saw the release of Blumhouse’s The Black Phone ($23.6M domestic opening, $90.1M domestic total), also directed by Whannell.

M3GAN ($30.4M), Insidious: The Red Door ($33M), and The Exorcist: Believer ($26.4M) are all Blumhouse titles distributed by Universal that opened close to the high end of the $20M – $30M range our panel predicts for Wolf Man. Positive word-of-mouth and critical praise could help Wolf Man have holds more like M3GAN ($95.1M) or Insidious: The Red Door ($82.1M) than The Exorcist: Believer ($65.5M), though it will be an uphill battle—by this point in its release schedule, M3GAN had already achieved virality thanks to its first trailer, and Insidious: The Red Door benefited from name recognition garnered from its place in a well-established cinematic shared universe. Though Wolf Man may be a dark horse compared to those two titles, it could get a boost from the Christmas release of Focus Features’ Nosferatu, screenings of which will expose more people to the Wolf Man trailer.

In terms of January Universal/Blumhouse horror releases, Wolf Man will likely end up somewhere between 2023’s M3GAN and Night Swim ($32.4M domestic total), which fizzled with an $11.7M domestic opening in the first weekend of 2024.

Tracking Updates [as of Dec 27]