Our latest edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a look at the weekend of June 16-18, which is currently slated for the wide release of four titles. Our analysis and updated forecast table follow:
Disney / Pixar
- If there’s such a thing as a safe box office bet, it’s the combination of Disney and Pixar.
- Reactions to the initial teasers have been largely positive, offering some hope among fans that the franchise is in course-correction mode after the divisive (by Pixar standards) Cars 2.
- Getting a two-week head start on the release of Despicable Me 3 positions this to capture family audiences early in the summer as kids are getting out of school.
- The aforementioned reception of Cars 2 could be a hindrance to major anticipation for this third installment, particularly among older Pixar fans.
- If Captain Underpants takes off with family crowds in early June, that will also soften some of the immediate demand for another animated option among parents and children.
- Scarlett Johansson, Kate McKinnon, and a solid ensemble cast could help bring out both men and women in this raunchy, R-rated comedy. Healthy buzz and strong trailers closer to release will be key, though.
- As Bad Moms proved last summer (and Bridesmaids in 2011), “girls’ night out” comedies are not to be underestimated at the box office.
- In general, the female audience has continued to be under-served in recent summers when compared to male-oriented films.
- As the second female-centric comedy to open this summer after Snatched in May, plus with the similarly themed Girls Trip in mid-July, the market isn’t as wide open for this title as it was for Bad Moms last year. Baywatch could also cut into the audience here if its staying power proves strong.
- Initial social media buzz isn’t as strong as we’d like to see compared to similar films, but there’s plenty of time for that pick up.
All Eyez on Me
Lionsgate / Summit
- More than 20 years after his death, Tupac Shakur continues to stand as a legendary symbol among the hip-hop community.
- Straight Outta Compton demonstrated the heights that bio-pics about modern hip-hop icons can reach. The counter-programming potential on opening weekend is noteworthy.
- Social media buzz has been notably positive since the first trailer’s release.
- Reviews and a big marketing push will be key to determining the ceiling for this film. It would be unfair to expect Straight Outta Compton-like box office numbers — then again, this film doesn’t necessarily need them.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- April’s end-of-spring market continues to look soft as tracking and social media buzz for The Circle, How to be a Latin Lover, and Sleight have yet to break out beyond expectations.
- First industry tracking for King Arthur, Snatched, and Lowriders was released this week. The former two titles indicate trends that line up with our earlier forecasts. We’ve added our first predictions for Lowriders below.
- Captain Underpants‘ position as the first animated release of summer and its status as the only non-sequel animated title before July 28’s Emoji Movie continue to increase our optimism.
- Due to Entertainment Studios’ lack of distribution and marketing history, we’ve temporarily excluded 47 Meters Down from the forecast. It’s scheduled to open June 16.
Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|4/28/2017||The Circle||$10,000,000||$27,000,000||-10%||2,800||STX Entertainment|
|4/28/2017||How to Be a Latin Lover||$6,500,000||$23,000,000||1,000||Lionsgate|
|5/5/2017||Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2||$160,000,000||$400,000,000||4,200||Disney|
|5/12/2017||King Arthur: Legend of the Sword||$23,000,000||$67,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|5/19/2017||Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul||$10,000,000||$32,000,000||Fox|
|5/19/2017||Everything, Everything||$8,500,000||$26,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|5/26/2017||Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales||$61,000,000
|6/2/2017||Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie||$28,000,000||17%||$93,500,000||17%||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|6/2/2017||Wonder Woman||$83,000,000||$225,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|6/9/2017||It Comes At Night||$12,000,000||$39,000,000||A24|
|6/9/2017||The Mummy (2017)||$50,000,000||$143,000,000||Universal|
|6/16/2017||47 Meters Down||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|6/16/2017||All Eyez On Me||$18,000,000||NEW||$49,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate / Summit|
|6/16/2017||Cars 3||$49,000,000||NEW||$180,000,000||NEW||Disney / Pixar|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.