Long Range Forecast: Disney Goes Back to the Beginning with SNOW WHITE Remake

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Long Range Forecast — March 21, 2025

Disney’s Snow White | Walt Disney

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $65M – $85M

Some three months after the release Mufasa: The Lion King, Disney brings another reimagining—this time of its (and the) first full-length animated film—to the big screen in the form of Disney’s Snow White. This live-action adaptation, directed by Marc Webb ((500) Days of Summer) and co-written by Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Erin Cressida Wilson (Secretary), has a lot of potential to bring in generations of mother-and-daughter Disney fans, particularly given the relative lack of family-oriented competition that typically comes with a mid-March release date; two previous live action Disney remakes (Beauty and the Beast and Cinderella) have hit theaters in that window.

Theatrically Released Disney Animation Reimaginings

In the month leading up to Disney’s Snow White’s debut, there will have been two major titles vying for the family market: Lionsgate’s Unbreakable Boy, largely marketed to the faith-based crowd, and Sony’s Paddington in Peru, like Disney’s Snow White a live-action/animation hybrid centering on a legacy children’s character. Despite opening at a lower-than-expected $12.7M, Paddington‘s holdover haul could nibble away at Disney’s Snow White come mid-March should positive momentum develop; however, if that didn’t happen for 2018’s Paddington 2—a critical and audience darling that was nonetheless unable to course-correct after a disappointing box office debut—it probably won’t happen for Pads this time around.

That said, all isn’t necessarily joyous singing wildlife and happily-ever-after for Disney’s Snow White. Disney’s audience habits have evolved significantly since the peak of their animation remakes during the 2010s, when four titles—The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Alice in Wonderland, and The Jungle Book—opened above $100M domestically. Perhaps the sharpest evidence of this is the chasm between the respective domestic openings of 2024’s Mufasa: The Lion King ($35.4M) and 2019’s The Lion King ($191.7M).

Being a remake of a Disney classic, rather than a sequel to a remake of a Disney classic, Disney’s Snow White has the edge over Mufasa in terms of box office potential. (Among this run of Disney remakes, the sequels—Mufasa: The Lion King, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, and Alice Through the Looking Glass—have to-date all come in under their predecessors.) But nostalgia won’t be enough to carry Disney’s Snow White past $100M in its opening weekend. Star Rachel Zegler (20th Century Studios/Disney’s West Side Story; Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes; and Warner Bros.’ Shazam! Fury of the Gods, the last of these also a mid-March release) has yet to open a movie above $50M, though her Hunger Games prequel ($44.6M domestic opening, $166.3M domestic total) had strong enough legs to keep it in the domestic top ten from its week-before-Thanksgiving release through the New Year’s long weekend. Earlier in 2023, Disney’s The Little Mermaid remake enjoyed a similar trajectory, opening roughly on-par with expectations before enjoying a leggy theatrical run that saw it out-earn comparable releases with similar or higher opening weekends.

Tracking Updates [as of February 20]