Long Range Forecast: Counterprogrammers THE MONKEY and THE UNBREAKABLE BOY Carve Out a Niche Against the MCU

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Long Range Forecast — February 21, 2025

The Monkey | Neon

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $25M

Based on a Stephen King short story, this winter horror release should deliver a solid baseline of genre fans. On its side—and prevalent in the marketing—is the presence of director Osgood Perkins, whose 2024 smash hit Longlegs ($22.4M domestic opening, $74.3M domestic total) is still fresh in the minds of genre fans. Though The Monkey is unlikely to match Longlegs in terms of box office—for one thing, it lacks a cast member with the name recognition (and reputation for must-see performances) of Longlegs‘ Nicolas Cage—it looks to be a solid performer, tracking ahead of fellow King short story adaptation The Boogeyman ($12.3M domestic opening, $43.2M domestic total) from 2023.

Based on available footage, The Monkey looks quite a bit goofier than Longlegs, and its semi-comical premise—that a cymbal-banging toy monkey has power over life and death—could prove a deterrent to moviegoers outside the core audience of horror fans. It can’t be taken for granted that those horror fans will show up; they certainly didn’t for Universal’s January release Wolf Man, which opened under expectations to $10.8M and dropped 70 percent in its second week. But The Monkey is developing good traction, which—combined with a strong critical reception and word-of-mouth—could push our opening weekend range further north closer to release.

Long Range Forecast — February 21, 2025

The Unbreakable Boy | Lionsgate

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $5M – $10M

A family-centric drama led by Zachary Levi, The Unbreakable Boy is Lionsgate’s latest collaboration with Kingdom Storm Company, the production company behind such faith-based titles as I Still Believe, American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story, and Jesus Revolution, all released by Lionsgate. Kingdom’s track record of delivering mid-budget dramas that connect with a faith-based audience bodes well for The Unbreakable Boy, as does the presence both behind and in front of the camera of names familiar to faith-based audiences, including producers Jon and Andrew Erwin, two of Kingdom Story Company’s founders; director Jon Gunn (Ordinary Angels); and star Levi (American Underdog).

Lionsgate/Kingdom Story Company Collaborations

Lionsgate has opted for a late February release date for Kingdom Story Company films before, notably with their top-grossing Kingdom collaboration, 2023’s Jesus Revolution ($15.8 domestic opening, $52.1M domestic total), as well as last year’s Ordinary Angels ($7.7 domestic opening, $20.3M domestic total). Our forecasting panel puts The Unbreakable Boy near the lower-grossing of the two with a domestic opening between $5M and $10M, putting it roughly in line with the most recent Lionsgate/Kingdom collab, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever ($10.7M domestic opening, $40M domestic total). That film held well over the holiday season, topping out at $40M domestically; should word-of-mouth not deliver for The Unbreakable Boy, it could end up with a domestic cume more like that of 2024’s Unsung Hero ($7.7M domestic opening, $20.3M domestic total).

Tracking Updates [as of January 31]