Long Range Forecast: ‘Finding Dory’ & ‘Central Intelligence’

Disney’s long awaited Finding Dory and Warner’s Central Intelligence will both arrive in the marketplace on June 17.  BoxOffice Pro expects Finding Dory to be one of the biggest films of this summer and also expects a strong performance from Central Intelligence.

Finding Dory (Disney)


– 2003’s Finding Nemo is one of Pixar’s most beloved films and one of its strongest box office performers.  Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Finding Nemo opened with $70.3 million and went on to gross $339.7 million in its original run.  With the addition of a theatrical re-issue in 2012, Finding Nemo has grossed $380.8 million in its lifetime domestically.

– While being a sequel is likely to inflate its online activity, Finding Dory has been performing especially strong on Twitter for a family film this far away from release.

– Disney and Pixar have had great success in the recent past with long awaited sequels.  2010’s Toy Story 3 opened with $110.3 million and went on to gross $415.0 million domestically, while 2013’s Monsters University opened with $82.4 million and finished its domestic run with $268.5 million.

Finding Dory was recently voted as the most anticipated family film of the summer in Fandango’s annual Most Anticipated Summer Movies Survey.

– Disney has been on an absolute roll as of late with the breakout performances of Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Zootopia and The Jungle Book.  The studio’s current hot streak is expected to continue into the summer with Captain America: Civil War and Finding Dory.


– Holding power for Finding Dory could be affected a bit by Universal’s highly anticipated The Secret Life of Pets, which opens just three weeks later on July 8.

– While it likely isn’t a reflection of how future Pixar films will perform at the box office, Pixar is coming off its lowest grossing film ever in The Good Dinosaur, which finished its domestic run with just $123.1 million.

Finding Dory will represent the third Pixar release to enter the marketplace in a year’s time (joining The Good Dinosaur and Inside Out).  This could diminish overall demand slightly for Finding Dory; as could the recent break-out performances of Zootopia and The Jungle Book with family audiences.

Central Intelligence (Warner Bros. / New Line)


– The combination of Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart provides a high amount of star power and is likely to go over very well with moviegoers.

– Warner Bros. and Johnson saw San Andreas exceed expectations in a big way last summer with a debut of $54.6 million and a final domestic gross of $155.2 million.

–  Central Intelligence should benefit from being a non-sequel in a summer full of sequels.

Central Intelligence was recently voted as the second most anticipated comedy of the summer in Fandango’s annual Most Anticipated Summer Movies Survey.


Central Intelligence has been performing softly on Twitter thus far, though it should be noted that San Andreas generated very modest online activity leading up to its release last year.

– Hart’s most recent film, this year’s Ride Along 2, performed below expectations with a $35.2 million three-day start and a final domestic gross of $90.9 million.  There is also a risk of Central Intelligence coming across as too similar to the Ride Along films to stand out.

– In its second weekend of release Central Intelligence will be facing direct competition from Fox’s Independence Day: Resurgence.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Finding Dory Jun 17, 2016 Disney $108,000,000 $390,000,000
Central Intelligence Jun 17, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $52,000,000 $155,000,000
The Conjuring 2 Jun 10, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $45,000,000 $105,000,000
Warcraft Jun 10, 2016 Universal $35,000,000 $78,000,000
Now You See Me 2 Jun 10, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $23,000,000 $65,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Jun 3, 2016 Paramount $53,000,000 $145,000,000
Me Before You Jun 3, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $15,000,000 $45,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Jun 3, 2016 Universal $10,000,000 $25,000,000
X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $115,000,000* $240,000,000
Alice Through the Looking Glass May 27, 2016 Disney $70,000,000* $170,000,000
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising May 20, 2016 Universal $46,000,000 $120,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie May 20, 2016 Sony / Columbia $43,000,000 $140,000,000
The Nice Guys May 20, 2016 Warner Bros. $16,000,000 $60,000,000
Money Monster May 13, 2016 Sony / TriStar $11,000,000 $32,000,000
The Darkness May 13, 2016 High Top / BH Tilt $6,000,000 $13,000,000
Captain America: Civil War May 6, 2016 Disney $200,000,000 $550,000,000
Keanu Apr 29, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $20,000,000 $50,000,000
Mother’s Day (2016) Apr 29, 2016 Open Road $11,000,000 $40,000,000
Ratchet & Clank Apr 29, 2016 Focus / Gramercy $7,000,000 $17,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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