Long Range Forecast: Formula One Comes to the Big Screen with F1: THE MOVIE

Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.

Long Range Forecast — June 27, 2025

F1: The Movie | Warner Bros. / Apple Original Films

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $48M – $60M

A lot of buzz is riding on this racing drama made in collaboration with F1’s Liberty Media. While Formula One is on a growth trajectory in the United States, we expect this title to have higher traction overseas, where the sport is more of an established commodity. That overseas rollout starts on June 25, two days before F1‘s North American debut, meaning a strong performance and word-of-mouth from overseas markets could help raise the film’s profile among domestic audiences.

F1 is the first theatrical release from director Joseph Kosinski since Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7M three-day domestic opening, $718.7M domestic total), which took the summer by storm following its Memorial Day weekend 2022 debut. There are some similarities between the two films, notably the fact that both of them were shot for IMAX screens, which bodes well for F1‘s premium format ticket sales. On the flip side, F1 might have trouble keeping a robust IMAX screen count after its debut weekend, as the following Wednesday (July 2) sees the release of Universal’s Jurassic World: Rebirth, followed the next week by Warner Bros.’ Superman.

In recent years, films to come out the weekend before the July 4th holiday include A Quiet Place: Day One ($52.2M domestic opening, $139M domestic total), Elvis ($31.2M domestic opening, $151M domestic total), F9 ($70M domestic opening, $173M domestic total), Sicario: Day of the Soldado ($19M domestic opening, $50M domestic total), and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($148M domestic opening, $417.7M domestic total).

Prior to F1, Brad Pitt’s most recent starring role was in August 2022’s action comedy Bullet Train ($30M domestic opening, $103.3M domestic total). Recent movies about the sport of car racing—though all biopics, rather than based on an original story as F1 is—include August 2023’s Gran Turismo ($17.4M domestic opening, $44.4M domestic total), Christmas 2023’s Ferarri ($3.9M domestic opening, $18.5M domestic total), and November 2019’s Ford v Ferrari ($31.4M domestic opening, $117.6M domestic total).

Tracking Updates [as of June 13]