Long Range Forecast — November 22, 2024
Gladiator II | Paramount Pictures
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $60M – $80M
Ridley Scott returns to ancient Rome with Gladiator II, the director’s follow-up to his 2000 Best Picture Oscar winner. Following in the footsteps of a modern classic like Gladiator will be no small task, but Scott could bring back a significant adult audience with a strong crowdpleaser featuring Denzel Washington supporting a strong ensemble.
Gladiator II is the latest in a series of period pieces for Scott, following 2017’s All They Money in the World ($5.5M domestic opening, $25.1M domestic total), 2021’s The Last Duel ($4.7M domestic opening, $10.8M domestic total), 2021’s House of Gucci ($14.4M domestic opening, $53.8M domestic total), and last year’s Napoleon ($20.6M domestic opening, $61.5M domestic total). Of those, House of Gucci and Napoleon debuted over Thanksgiving weekend, though with Gladiator II distributor Paramount is opting for the Friday before that holiday, steering clear of the following week’s Moana 2 and sharing a release date with the first part of Universal’s Wicked adaptation.
Over the last handful of years, tennis drama King Richard (11/19/21, $5.4M domestic opening, $15.1M domestic total), dark satire The Menu (11/18/22, $9M domestic opening, $38.5M domestic total), biopic A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (11/22/19, $13.2M domestic opening, $61.7M total), racing drama Ford v Ferrari (11/15/19, $31.4 domestic opening, $117.6M domestic total), and crime thriller Widows (11/16/18, $12.3M domestic opening, $42.4M domestic total) are all adult-skewing wide releases that came to theaters in mid-November—but still before Thanksgiving, giving them the chance to rack up substantial holdover ticket sales. Our panel of forecasters puts Gladiator II‘s box office debut well above that set due to several factors, among them the relative paucity of non-superhero action movies this year and the presence of Denzel Washington, who—while not prolific these days in terms of the number of films he’s in—is still an actor capable of enticing domestic and global audiences, as seen by the Equalizer trilogy, all three chapters of which hover around or slightly under the $100M mark domestically and the $200M mark globally.
An opening on the high end of our $60M – $80M range would put Gladiator II in league with fellow 2024 releases (and fellow sequels) Dune: Part 2 (3/1, $82.5M domestic opening, $282.M domestic total), Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (3/29, $80M domestic opening, $196.3M domestic total), and Twisters (7/19, $81.2M domestic opening, $267.7M domestic total). A key factor here will be the performance of Wicked, which is tracking extremely well in pre-sales. The best outcome for both films would be a Barbenheimer-esque counterprogramming boost, with moviegoers uninterested in (or unable to get their desired tickets for) Wicked opting to see Gladiator II while family members defy gravity a few auditoriums over.
Tracking Updates [as of 10/24]
Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
10/25/24 | Venom: The Last Dance | $60 – $80M | Sony |
10/25/24 | Conclave | $3 – $5M | Focus Features |
11/1/24 | Here | $5 – $10M | Sony |
11/8/24 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $5 – $10M | Lionsgate |
11/8/24 | Heretic | $6 – $10M | A24 |
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